scholarly journals The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change

Tellus B ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 19734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew A. Lacis ◽  
James E. Hansen ◽  
Gary L. Russell ◽  
Valdar Oinas ◽  
Jeffrey Jonas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Control Knob ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1938) ◽  
pp. 933-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Scientific Papers

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

scholarly journals Sustainable Energy Development under Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Chun Kung ◽  
Bruce McCarl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Energy ◽  
Energy Development ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Broad Array

The world faces unprecedented threats from climate change and increasing variability, which severely impacts human society and the natural environment. To reduce future climate change and ensure our economies can grow in a sustainable way, sustainable energy development is considered to be an effective approach. In this context, sustainable energy development involves augmenting our energy supplies and managing demands in a fashion that societal energy needs are met with a minimal effect on greenhouse gas emissions and a nominal resultant contribution to future climate change. In this Special Issue, research papers focus on the role of sustainable energy development (while addressing important dimensions of sustainability), which mandates an inter-disciplinary perspective in all articles. We collected 11 such papers that have analyzed a broad array of topics related to bioenergy, wind power, industrial innovation, and climate change mitigation. These papers show the varied application of renewable energy and climate change energy responses, while providing meaningful decision-making information and policy implications.

scholarly journals COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 1350073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q.-B. LU
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Atmospheric Ozone ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O 3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl 4 and HCFCs), CO 2, total O 3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O 3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O 3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O 3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 ~ 25 % of the Antarctic O 3 hole is found, while no recovery of O 3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO 2 concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 ~ 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 ~ 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O 3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O 3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Recycling as seduction: Critiquing the practice of climate-change education from a primary classroom

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
Sylvia Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Experienced Teacher ◽  
Climate Change Education ◽  
Primary Classroom ◽  
Complex Problems ◽  
Insufficient Response ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

Recycling is often included in lists of things that can be done to mitigate climate change. Recycling is not a “bad’ thing, but recycling alone is an insufficient response to the complex problems posed by climate change. This article takes the reader through the journey of an experienced teacher who began with a hopeful vision to include climate change in her school’s programme, meandered through a myriad distracting recycling schemes, until she reached a deeper understanding of the barriers to climate change education and the role of emotions in these programmes. The article concludes with her three key lessons for future climate change curriculum projects.

scholarly journals A new merge of global surface temperature datasets since the start of the 20th century

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1629-1643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Yun ◽  
Boyin Huang ◽  
Jiayi Cheng ◽  
Wenhui Xu ◽  
Shaobo Qiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract. Global surface temperature (ST) datasets are the foundation for global climate change research. Several global ST datasets have been developed by different groups in NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, UK Met Office Hadley Centre & UEA CRU, and Berkeley Earth. In this study, a new global ST dataset named China Merged Surface Temperature (CMST) was presented. CMST is created by merging the China-Land Surface Air Temperature (C-LSAT1.3) with sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5). The merge of C-LSAT and ERSSTv5 shows a high spatial coverage extended to the high latitudes and is more consistent with a reference of multi-dataset averages in the polar regions. Comparisons indicated that CMST is consistent with other existing global ST datasets in interannual and decadal variations and long-term trends at global, hemispheric, and regional scales from 1900 to 2017. The CMST dataset can be used for global climate change assessment, monitoring, and detection. The CMST dataset presented here is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.901295 (Li, 2019a) and has been published on the Climate Explorer website of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) at http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=cmst (last access: 11 August 2018; Li, 2019b, c).

scholarly journals Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prodromos Zanis ◽  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Vaishali Naik ◽  
Sophie Szopa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of -0.96±0.07 ppbv oC-1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 369-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saman Armal ◽  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
Reza Khanbilvardi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Multilevel Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1244 rainfall stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies or to a combination of well-known cyclical climate modes with varying quasiperiodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypothesis is made based on the Watanabe–Akaike information criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the U.S. Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the U.S. Northwest, West, and Southwest climate regions.

scholarly journals A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1584-1594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Babcock Hollowed ◽  
Nicholas A. Bond ◽  
Thomas K. Wilderbuer ◽  
William T. Stockhausen ◽  
Z. Teresa A'mar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Fish And Shellfish ◽  
The Bering Sea

AbstractHollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole.

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