scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns of KSE 100 Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-145
Author(s):  
MUHAMMAD TAHIR KHAN ◽  
ASAF KHAN ◽  
DR. ADNAN AHMAD ◽  
OBAID ULLAH BASHIR
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

Positive moment of stock return is an important component for investors, the intension of this study was to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock return. The monthly stocks price data of 15 firms was taken from the period of January 2008 to December 2012. The results revealed that there was a positive impact of exchange rate on stock return, while inflation rate and interest rate had a significant negative impact on stock return. The results of variance decompositions revealed that out of three macroeconomic variables Inflation rate showed greater forecast error for KSE 100 Index

Macroeconomic factors and stock returns: Evidence from the emerging market of Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asad Saleem Malik ◽  
Saher Touqeer ◽  
Shumaila Zeb
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns of Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka for the period of 1997-2014. GMM approach is used to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns. Variables of the study were T-Bills, Exchange Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Production Index (IPI). The results of study show that T-bills rate has significant negative impact while Exchange rate has a significant positive impact on the Stock Returns of the study period.

scholarly journals What Drives Bank Profitability? A Panel Data Analysis of Commercial Banks in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-110
Author(s):  
Rana-Al-Mosharrafa ◽  
Md. Shahidul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Mediation Effect ◽  
Industry Concentration ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

Bank profitability plays a significant role in the growth and development of an emerging economy. The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of bank characteristics, industry concentration and macroeconomics variables on commercial bank profitability in Bangladesh from 2007-2017. Bank profitability is proxied by return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIM). The study is based on secondary data and Hausman test has been performed using STATA software in favor of fixed effect modeling. Panel regressions shows that cost efficiency has significant negative impact on ROA and NIM. The positive impact of loan to deposit ratio with ROA suggests that efficient fund management including investment and assessed expenditure should be emphasized. Bank size has significant negative impact on all the measures of profitability, which indicates that monopolistic competition will reduce banking profit. Credit risk has significant positive impacts on ROE. Industry concentration measured by CR3 is positively related with ROE and has significant negative relation with bank profitability (ROA). Among macroeconomic variables inflation has significant positive and bank spread has significant negative impact on ROE. The coefficients of all the macroeconomic variables have been found to be significantly related to bank profitability while measured by NIM. Our study recommends further research with other explanatory variables such as, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility (CSR) and deposit insurance to accelerate the model and construct the econometric model by using structural equation modeling, mediation effect modeling etc.

The Impact of the Business Environment on the Formalization of Informal Firms. The Case of Kosovo

Südosteuropa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-529
Author(s):  
Kujtim Zylfijaj ◽  
Dimitar Nikoloski ◽  
Nadine Tournois
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Characteristics Analysis ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe research presented here investigates the impact of the business environment on the formalization of informal firms, using firm-level data for 243 informal firms in Kosovo. The findings indicate that business-environment variables such as limited access to financing, the cost of financing, the unavailability of subsidies, tax rates, and corruption have a significant negative impact on the formalization of informal firms. In addition, firm-level characteristics analysis suggests that the age of the firm also exercises a significant negative impact, whereas sales volume exerts a significant positive impact on the formalization of informal firms. These findings have important policy implications and suggest that the abolition of barriers preventing access to financing, as well as tax reforms and a consistent struggle against corruption may have a positive influence on the formalization of informal firms. On the other hand, firm owners should consider formalization to be a means to help them have greater opportunities for survival and growth.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of Islamic Calendar Effect in Global Islamic Equity Indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Nadeem Qureshi ◽  
Yasra Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Equity Indices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Stock

This study aims to explore the effect of Islamic Months specifically Ramadan and Zil-Haj on the stock returns and volatility of the Islamic Global Equity Indices. For the said purpose, the data on three Global Equity Islamic Indices including; Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index, MSCI ACWI Islamic Index, and S&P Global BMI Shariah Index are collected from 5th Jan 2011 (1st Muharram 1432 A.H.) to 12th November 2015 (30th Muharram 1437 A.H.). Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and GARCH (1,1) regression methods are applied to analyze the impact of the Islamic months on global stock returns and volatility respectively. Empirical results reveal significant negative impact of Zil-Haj on returns and volatility of Islamic Global Equity Indices. However, no significant impact of Ramadan on returns and volatility of Islamic Global Equity Indices are revealed. These findings will be fascinating and of utmost interest amidst the researchers, investors and practitioners.

scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: Perception of Nepali Bankers

2016 ◽  
pp. 128-148
Author(s):  
Seema Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Budgetary Expenditure

The paper discusses the perception of Nepalese bankers regarding the determinants of nonperforming loan in Nepalese commercial banks. The paper is based on primary information collected from 140 bankers working in large ten commercial banks of Nepal. The bankers of Nepalese commercial bank perceive that energy crisis; lack of timely budgetary expenditure by the government and instable political environment increases the non-performing loan. Similarly bankers also perceive that borrowers honesty in disclosing the information, better monitoring and evaluation of the loan, have significant negative impact on non-performing loan. However, the banker’s perception shows that the macroeconomic variables like unemployment rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate are not much important variables to influence non-performing loan of the commercial banks of Nepal. The bankers also perceive that the increase in GDP growth rate decrease the non-performing loan of commercial banks in Nepal.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 17 & 18 No. 1-2 (2014) Combined Issue, Page: 128-148

scholarly journals The impact of downside risk on UK stock returns

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-70
Author(s):  
Fangzhou Huang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Time Sensitivity ◽  
Window Approach ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate patterns in UK stock returns related to downside risk, with particular focus on stock returns during financial crises.Design/methodology/approachFirst, stocks are sorted into five quintile portfolios based on the relevant beta values (classic beta, downside beta and upside beta, calculated by the moving window approach). Second, patterns of portfolio returns are examined during various sub-periods. Finally, predictive powers of beta and downside beta are examined.FindingsThe downside risk is observed to have a significant positive impact on contemporaneous stock returns and a negative impact on future returns in general. In contrast, an inverse relationship between risk and return is observed when stocks are sorted by beta, contrary to the classic literature. UK stock returns exhibit clear time sensitivity, especially during financial crises.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on the impact of the downside risk on UK stock returns, assessed via a comprehensive sub-period analysis. This paper fills the gap in the existing literature, in which very few studies examine the time sensitivity in relation to the downside risk and the risk-return anomaly in the UK stock market using a long sample period.

The Impact of Synoptic Observing and Analysis Systems on Flow Pattern Forecasts

1976 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 1225-1240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman A. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Observational Error ◽  
Optimum Interpolation ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Analysis Scheme ◽  
Observational Errors ◽  
The Impact

A linear dynamical prediction model is combined with a linear analysis scheme to give a formula for the expected squared forecast error, as a function of space and time, given a knowledge of observational error covariance and spectrum of the true field. The formula is applied with a two-layer geostrophic model to estimate the maximum impact of tropospheric temperatures derived from satellite radiances over oceanic areas on the accuracy of 500 mb forecasts over North America. The results show a positive impact if the observations are analyzed by an unrealistically efficient optimum interpolation method, but they show a negative impact at all but the smallest satellite error values if the observations are analyzed by a method that ignores observational errors. Eight conclusions are reached concerning routine numerical forecasts and the First GARP Global Experiment.

scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Performing Loan in Nepalese Commercial Banks

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seema Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The non-performing loans (NPL) of financial institutions are considered as a significant issue in the context of Nepal for last few decades. The paper aims to identify the impact of macroeconomic variables (GDP, Inflation, and Real Effective Exchange Rate) and bank specific variables (size, change in loan, real lending rate of interest, and share of loan to total assets) on the non-performing loan of the commercial banks in Nepal. The study was conducted mainly with secondary sources. The data were collected for 26 commercial banks covering the period of 2002-2012 with 227 observations. The study found that macroeconomic variables such as the real effective exchange rate have significantly negative impact on non-performing loan. The impact of GDP growth rate was found to be insignificant in this study. One year lagged inflation rate has significant positive impact on non-performing loan. The banks which charge relatively higher real interest rate have higher non-performing loan, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies. The ownership dummy has positive coefficient and significant at one percent level showing that if the bank is government owned the non-performing loan would be higher than that of the private owned banks. As well, more lending in the previous years and current year reduces the non-performing loan since the coefficient of change in loan in current and previous years have negative coefficient and significant at one percent level.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 19 & 20 No. 1-2 (2015) Combined Issue, Page: 22-38

scholarly journals Evidence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Returns

2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Thomas Chinan Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Stock ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence suggests that a rise in the U.S. EPU causes not only a decline in a country’s stock return, but also a negative spillover effect on the global market; however, we cannot find a comparable negative effect from global EPU to U.S. stocks. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact that significantly affects stock return worldwide. This study also finds an indirect COVID-19 impact that runs through a change in domestic EPU and, in turn, affects stock return. Evidence shows significant COVID-19 effects that change relative stock returns between the U.S. and global markets, creating a decoupling phenomenon.

scholarly journals Scoring Models and Credit Risk: The Case of Cooperative Banks in Poland

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Kil ◽  
Radosław Ciukaj ◽  
Justyna Chrzanowska
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Management Board ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Cooperative Banks ◽  
Lending Activity ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the research presented in the article was to analyse the legitimacy of the use of scoring models in banking activities, together with the assessment of the effectiveness of this tool in reducing the high value of the NPL ratio in Polish cooperative banks on the example of banks belonging to the BPS S.A. association in the period between 2004 and 2020. We used a variety of research methods for this purpose including a depth review of the literature, analysis of statistical data regarding the sector of Polish cooperative banks, analysis of financial data of cooperative banks, construction of an econometric panel model, and the designing a questionnaire (which was later sent to the management board of selected cooperative banks). Our research confirmed the significant impact of the use of scoring models in lending activities on the value of the NPL ratio in cooperative banks. The analysed cooperative banks, which used the scoring models proposed by BIK in their lending activity, showed significantly lower values of the NPL ratio in each analysed year than banks that used other scoring models. Our study also confirmed the different direction of the impact of the models offered by BIK and individual scoring models on the value of the NPL ratio. We have also shown that the scoring models proposed by BIK have a statistically significant negative impact on the level of the NPL ratio, and the banks’ own scoring models have a statistically significant positive impact on the level of the NPL ratio.

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