scholarly journals Predictive ability of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for assessing the risk of osteoporosis

2019 ◽  

Osteoporosis (OP) is a progressive metabolic bone disease caused by disturbed balance between bone formation and bone resorption. Osteoporotic fractures lead to a deterioration in the quality of patients’ life due to high morbidity and mortality, and the economic burden of osteoporotic fractures is expected to increase. Various tools have been developed to assess the risk of osteoporosis in the clinical practice. The Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST) is used to predict osteoporosis and is suitable for self-assessment. The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of the OST score to predict the risk of OP. 180 postmenopausal women with a mean age of 61 ± 13 years (38-86 years) were included in the study. The OST score was evaluated using the formula: (body weight  age) × 0.2. Patients were divided into three groups according to the risk of OP: low risk (> -1), moderate risk (-1 to -4) and high risk (<-4). Based on the total lumbar spine T-score, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), the actual number of the women with OP was established. According to the OST score, 22 women were in the high risk group, 41 women in the moderate risk group, and 117 women in the low risk group. There was a correlation between the risk of OP calculated with OST and the number of patients with OP, established by DEXA measurement - with increased risk of OP, the number of the women with OP also increased (p = 0.000). The percentage of the women with osteoporosis is highest in the high risk group and lowest in the low risk group. In the high risk group, 95.5% of the women had a diagnosis of osteoporosis. These results demonstrate the good ability of OST score to predict the risk of OP in the Bulgarian population.

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuhiro Kumai ◽  
Takuya Kiyohara ◽  
Masahiro Kamouchi ◽  
Sohei Yoshimura ◽  
Hiroshi Sugimori ◽  
...  

Background and Purpose— ABCD 2 score has been developed to predict the early risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack (TIA). The aim of this study was to clarify whether ABCD 2 score predicts the occurrence of stroke in the long term after TIA. Methods— Fukuoka Stroke Registry (FSR) is a multicenter epidemiological study database on acute stoke. From June 2007 to June 2011, 496 (305 males, 70 ± 13 years of age) patients who had suffered from TIA and were hospitalized in the 7 stroke centers within 7 days after the onset of TIA were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into three groups according to the risk: low-risk (ABCD 2 score 0-3; n=72), moderate-risk (4-5; n=229) and high-risk group (6-7; n=195). They were followed up prospectively for up to 3 years. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to elucidate whether ABCD 2 score was a predictor for stroke after TIA after adjusting for confounding factors. Results— Among three groups, there were significant differences in age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and the decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (P<0.01, significantly). During a mean follow-up of 1.3 years, Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the stroke rate in TIA patients was significantly lower in low-risk group than in moderate-risk or high-risk group (log rank test, p<0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios for stroke in patients with TIA increased with moderate-risk group (Hazard ratio [HR]: 3.47, 95% CI: 1.03-21.66, P<0.05) and high-risk group (HR: 4.46, 95% CI: 1.31-27.85, P<0.05), compared to low-risk group. Conclusions— The ABCD 2 score is able to predict the long-term risk of stroke after TIA.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 394-394
Author(s):  
Lavanniya Kumar Palani Velu ◽  
Vishnuvardhan Chandrabalan ◽  
Ross Carter ◽  
Colin McKay ◽  
Donald McMillan ◽  
...  

394 Background: Pancreas-specific complications (PSC), comprising postoperative pancreatic fistula, post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage, and intra-abdominal collections, are drivers of morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Intra-operatively derived pancreatic gland texture is a major determinant of postoperative PSC. We have previously demonstrated that a postoperative day 0 (PoD0) serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L is an objective surrogate of pancreatic texture, and is associated with PSC. We sought to refine the PSC risk prediction model by including serial measurements of serum C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods: 230 consecutive patients undergoing PD between 2008 and 2014 were included in the study. Routine serum investigations, including amylase and CRP were performed from the pre-operative day. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify a threshold value of serum CRP associated with clinically significant PSC. Results: 95 (41.3%) patients experienced a clinically significant PSC. ROC analysis identified post-operative day 2 (PoD2) serum CRP of 180 mg/L as the optimal threshold (P=0.005) associated with clinically significant PSC, a prolonged stay in critical care (P =0.032), and a relaparotomy (P = 0.045). Patients with a PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L who then developed a PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/L had a higher incidence of postoperative complications. Patients were categorised into high, intermediate and low risk groups based on PoD0 serum amylase and PoD2 serum CRP. Patients in the high risk group (PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l) had significantly higher incidence of PSC, a return to theatre, prolonged lengths stay (all P≤ 0.05) and a four-fold increase in perioperative mortality compared patients in the intermediate and low risk groups (7 deaths in the high risk group versus 2 and nil in the intermediate and low risk groups respectively). Conclusions: A high risk profile, defined as PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l, should raise the clinician’s awareness of the increased risk of clinically significant PSC and a complicated postoperative course following pancreaticoduodenectomy.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Chen ◽  
Lei Dong ◽  
Minjing Li ◽  
Fei He ◽  
ChenHui Qiu ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: This study aimed at establishing a novel nomogram predicting overall survival and investigating the survival benefit of various postoperative adjuvant treatments (POAT) in IIIA-N2 Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients after surgery.Methods: Data of IIIA-N2 NSCLC patients between 2004 and 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). Patients were excluded if the information regarding follow-up time and clinicopathological features were incomplete. Through Univariate and multivariate analyses, independent prognostic factors were identified and integrated into the construction of nomogram. The survival benefit of POAT was evaluated in model-defined low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk subgroups, respectively.Results: In total, 4389 patients were finally included for analysis. Patients’ age, sex, T stage, differentiation grade, examined lymph nodes number (ELN), metastatic lymph nodes number (MLN), and metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR) were identified as independent prognostic factors and were integrated into the construction of nomogram. The C-index and calibration curves indicated that the predictive performance of the nomogram was satisfactory. Patients were then categorized into three prognostic groups with the increasing risk of all-cause of death. The prognosis of patients receiving POAT (POCT or PORT plus POCT) and patients receiving surgery alone was comparable in low-risk group, while POCT could significantly prolong survival for IIIA-N2 NSCLC patients after surgery in moderate-risk and high-risk groups. Only patients in high-risk group could benefit from the combination of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and postoperative chemotherapy (POCT).Conclusion: In this large-cohort retrospective study, A survival-predicting nomogram and risk stratification model were established to estimate prognosis in IIIA-N2 NSCLC patients. Surgery alone was recommended as the first choice of treatment to patients in low-risk group. POCT was recommended for patients in moderate-risk group, and the combination of PORT and POCT was recommended for patients in high-risk group. This study may provide additional integration, introspection, and improvement for therapeutic decision-making.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 2680
Author(s):  
Vaishali C. Shelgaonkar ◽  
Swatika P. Butey ◽  
Vishal R. Nandagawali

Background: Many scoring systems have been used to assess the morbidity and mortality of patients presenting with acute abdomen, of which Apache II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) score has been accepted widely. This study predicted the effectiveness of Apache II scoring system as a potential clinical and research tool which could be included as routine part of patient assessment to predict the morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing emergency gastrointestinal procedures.Methods: This study was conducted in the surgical intensive care unit of our tertiary care hospital. It was a prospective observational study done over a period of one year where we assessed the efficacy of Apache II score in eighty two patients.Results: The Apache II scores were divided into three categories, 0-15 low risk group, 16-30 moderate risk group and 31-45 high risk group. There were 25 patients in the low risk group with all being satisfactorily discharged. With 44 patients in the moderate risk group 13 expired (29.54% mortality) and out of 13 patients in the high risk group 11 patients died (84.61% mortality).Conclusions: In the present study the APACHE II scores have correlated well with the outcomes and ICU stay of the patient groups.


2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Veeravagu ◽  
Amy Li ◽  
Christian Swinney ◽  
Lu Tian ◽  
Adrienne Moraff ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEThe ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort.METHODSThe spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery.RESULTSThe authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48–0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018).CONCLUSIONSWhile the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Li ◽  
Jinbo Yue ◽  
Xiangbo Wan ◽  
Bin Hua ◽  
Qiuan Yang ◽  
...  

PurposeThe aim of this study was to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram and establish a risk-adapted PMRT strategy based on locoregional recurrence for pT1-2N1M0 breast cancer.Methods and MaterialsA total of 3,033 patients with pT1-2N1M0 breast cancer treated at 6 participating institutions between 2000 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. A nomogram was developed to predicted locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS). A propensity score-matched (PSM) analyses was performed in risk-adapted model.ResultsWith the median follow-up of 65.0 months, the 5-year overall survival (OS), disease free survival (DFS) and LRFS were 93.0, 84.8, and 93.6%, respectively. There was no significant difference between patients who received PMRT or not for the entire group. A nomogram was developed and validated to estimate the probability of 5-year LRFS based on five independent factors including age, primary tumor site, positive lymph nodes number, pathological T stage, and molecular subtype that were selected by a multivariate analysis of patients who did not receive PMRT in the primary cohort. According to the total nomogram risk scores, the entire patients were classified into low- (40.0%), moderate- (42.4%), and high-risk group (17.6%). The 5-year outcomes were significantly different among these three groups (P&lt;0.001). In low-risk group, patients who received PMRT or not both achieved a favorable OS, DFS, and LRFS. In moderate-risk group, no differences in OS, DFS, and LRFS were observed between PMRT and no PMRT patients. In high-risk group, compared with no PMRT, PMRT resulted in significantly different OS (86.8 vs 83.9%, P = 0.050), DFS (77.2 vs 70.9%, P = 0.049), and LRFS (90.8 vs. 81.6%, P = 0.003). After PSM adjustment, there were no significant differences in OS, DFS, and LRFS in low-risk and moderate-risk groups. However, in the high-risk group, PMRT still resulted in significantly better OS, DFS and improved LRFS.ConclusionsThe proposed nomogram provides an individualized risk estimate of LRFS in patients with pT1-2N1M0 breast cancer. Risk-adapted PMRT for high-risk patients is a viable effective strategy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling-Feng Liu ◽  
Qing-Song Li ◽  
Yin-Xiang Hu ◽  
Wen-Gang Yang ◽  
Xia-Xia Chen ◽  
...  

PurposeThe role of radiotherapy, in addition to chemotherapy, has not been thoroughly determined in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The purpose of the study was to investigate the prognostic factors and to establish a model for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in metastatic NSCLC patients who received chemotherapy combined with the radiation therapy to the primary tumor.MethodsThe study retrospectively reviewed 243 patients with metastatic NSCLC in two prospective studies. A prognostic model was established based on the results of the Cox regression analysis.ResultsMultivariate analysis showed that being male, Karnofsky Performance Status score &lt; 80, the number of chemotherapy cycles &lt;4, hemoglobin level ≤120 g/L, the count of neutrophils greater than 5.8 ×109/L, and the count of platelets greater than 220 ×109/L independently predicted worse OS. According to the number of risk factors, patients were further divided into one of three risk groups: those having ≤ 2 risk factors were scored as the low-risk group, those having 3 risk factors were scored as the moderate-risk group, and those having ≥ 4 risk factors were scored as the high-risk group. In the low-risk group, 1-year OS is 67.7%, 2-year OS is 32.1%, and 3-year OS is 19.3%; in the moderate-risk group, 1-year OS is 59.6%, 2-year OS is 18.0%, and 3-year OS is 7.9%; the corresponding OS rates for the high-risk group were 26.2%, 7.9%, and 0% (P&lt;0.001) respectively.ConclusionMetastatic NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy in combination with thoracic radiation may be classified as low-risk, moderate-risk, or high-risk group using six independent prognostic factors. This prognostic model may help design the study and develop the plans of individualized treatment.


2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 265-268
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nauman Hashmi ◽  
Hammad Raza ◽  
Wael Elshazly ◽  
Fayez Hejaili ◽  
Abdullah Al Sayyari

Objective: To develop a simple, objective, cheap scoring tool incorporating nutritional parameters and other variables to predict hospitalization and mortality among hemodialysis patients – a tool that could be utilized in low resource countries. Methods: The following variables were scored according to severity into 0, 1, 2 or 3: BMI, functional capacity, HD vintage in years, serum albumin, serum ferritin, and the number of comorbid conditions (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease). This tool was evaluated on our regular hemodialysis patients who were followed up for 24 months (June 2015 till July 2017). In our study population, the maximum score recorded was 12; accordingly, a score of 6 was used to differentiate between a low-risk group (score < 6) or a high-risk group (score ≥6). The 2 groups were compared (using the Chi square test) for possible differences in mortality and hospitalization rates during the follow-up period. Results: One hundred and forty adult hemodialysis patients were monitored over 2 years; 83 were males and 57 females; 59% of the patients had diabetes mellitus. Twenty-nine patients (30.7%) were found to be in the high-risk group and 111 (79.3%) in the low-risk group. The high-risk patients were almost one and a half times more likely to be hospitalized for vascular access issues than the low-risk group (p = 0.056) and 3 times more likely to be hospitalized for non-vascular access issues than the low-risk group (p = 0.0001). The mortality rate in the high-risk group was 3.1 times that in the low-risk group, but this was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Using a simple and cheap assessment tool in hemodialysis patients, we have identified patients at high risk for hospitalization rates and mortality. Video Journal Club “Cappuccino with Claudio Ronco” at http://www.karger.com/?doi=490544.


Author(s):  
Pravin Shingade ◽  
Vinay Meshram ◽  
Umesh Madavi

Background: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score is purportedly an integral score for mortality risk prediction in fibrinolysis-eligible patients with STEMI. Attempt was made to evaluate the same by correlating risk stratification by TIMI score with hospital outcome of such patients.Methods: There were 145 cases of STEMI were studied and TIMI risk scores were calculated and analysed vis-à-vis various relevant parameters. The patients were divided into three risk groups: ‘low-risk’, ‘moderate-risk’ and ‘high-risk’ based on their TIMI scores. All patients received routine anti-ischemic therapy and were thrombolysed subsequently, monitored in ICCU and followed during hospital stay for occurrence of post-MI complications.Results: There were 79 patients (54.5%) belonged to low-risk group, 48 (33.1%) to moderate-risk group and 18 (12.4%) to high-risk group according to TIMI risk score. The mortality (total 17 deaths) was observed to be highest in the high-risk group (55.6%), followed by moderate-risk (12.2%) and low-risk group (1.28%) respectively. Out of the 7 potentially suspect variables studied, Killips classification grade 2-4 had the highest relative risk (RR-15.85), followed by systolic BP <100mmHg (RR- 10.48), diabetes mellitus (RR- 2.79) and age >65 years (RR- 2.59).Conclusions: The TIMI risk scoring system seems to be one simple, valid and practical bed side tool in quantitative risk stratification and short-term prognosis prediction in patients with STEMI.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Bondue ◽  
Pascal Schlossmacher ◽  
Nathalie Allou ◽  
Virgile Gazaille ◽  
Olivier Taton ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The surgical lung biopsy (SLB) is the recommended sampling technique when the pathological analysis of the lung is required in the work-up of an interstitial lung disease (ILD) but trans-bronchial lung cryobiopsy (TBLC) is increasingly recognized as an alternative approach. As TBLCs have lower mortality and morbidity risks than SLB, this study aimed to investigate the safety of TBLCs in patients at higher risk of complications and for whom SLB was not considered as an alternative. Method This prospective study was conducted in two hospitals in which TBLCs were performed in patients with body mass index (BMI) > 35, and/or older than 75 years, and/or with severely impaired lung function (FVC < 50% or DLCO < 30%), and/or systolic pulmonary artery pressure > 45 mmHg, and/or a clinically significant cardiac disease. Patients with any of these risk factors constituted the high-risk group. Clinical outcomes were compared with those obtained in patients without these risk factors (low-risk group). Results Ninety-six patients were included between April 2015 and April 2020, respectively 38 and 58 in the high-risk or the low-risk group. No statistically significant difference was observed between both groups in terms of severity and rate of bleeding, pneumothorax, or duration of hospital stay (p value ranging from 0.419 to 0.914). Conclusion This preliminary study on a limited number of patients suggests that TBLC appears safe in those in whom lung biopsy is at high-risk of complications according to their age, BMI, lung impairment, and cardiac comorbidities.


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