scholarly journals The effect of climate change on habitat suitability and a distribution model of the Iranian fat-tailed gecko, Eublepharis angramainyu Anderson and Leviton, 1966 (Sauria: Eublepharidae) since the Last Interglacial to 2050

Author(s):  
Rasoul Karamiani ◽  
Nasrullah Rastegar-Pouyani

Surveying the role of climate changes on the species distributions in the past, present and future, and correlating these with changes in distribution ranges have attracted considerable research interest. The leopard geckos of the genus Eublepharis Gray, 1827 (family Eublepharidae), as a vicariate group, comprises six valid species distributed from Turkey through the Iranian Plateau to India, of which E. angramainyu, E. macularius and E. turcmenicus occur in Iran. In this study, we modelled the potential distribution areas for E. angramainyu and determined the suitable habitats in the past (the last interglacial [LIG] and mid-Holocene [MH]), present (1950–2000), and also predicted four scenarios in the future (2050) by using the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt). The obtained models indicated very good values of the area under curve (AUC): LIG = 0.996 ± 0.003, MH = 0.996 ± 0.004, contemporary period = 0.995 ± 0.004, and the future = 0.997 ± 0.002. Precipitation of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the distribution of E. angramainyu. As it seems, climatic changes have been responsible for a southward shift in distribution and suitable habitats of E. angramainyu from the LIG (~150,000–120,000 years ago) to the future. The representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario model of the future predicted a much more restricted distribution and less suitable habitats due to radiation of the forcing level which reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m² by mid-century and returns to 2.6 W/m² by 2100.

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Van Loi

Vietnam - Laos has more than 2,000 km of common national borders. The coherent relationship between the two nations and the inhabitants of the two countries has been formed and fostered in history and especially developed over the past 7 decades. The Thai ethnic group in Vietnam has over one million people, residing permanently, concentrated in the Northwest region, the region consists of 8 provinces, of which 4 provinces have the Vietnam-Laos border crossing. This paper focuses on clarifying the practical basis for the Thai people to play a role in the traditional Vietnam-Laos friendship and propose some solutions to promote the role of Thai in maintaining, developing the traditional friendship between Vietnam and Laos, now and in the future.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-57
Author(s):  
Jamie McKeown

This article reports the findings from a study of discursive representations of the future role of technology in the work of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC). Specifically, it investigates the interplay of ‘techno-optimism’ (a form of ideological bias) and propositional certainty in the NIC’s ‘Future Global Trends Reports’. In doing so, it answers the following questions: To what extent was techno-optimism present in the discourse? What level of propositional certainty was expressed in the discourse? How did the discourse deal with the inherent uncertainty of the future? Overall, the discourse was pronouncedly techno-optimist in its stance towards the future role of technology: high-technological solutions were portrayed as solving a host of problems, despite the readily available presence of low-technology or no-technology solutions. In all, 75.1% of the representations were presented as future categorical certainties, meaning the future was predominantly presented as a known and closed inevitability. The discourse dealt with the inherent uncertainty of the subject matter, that is, the future, by projecting the past and present into the future. This was particularly the case in relation to the idea of technological military dominance as a guarantee of global peace, and the role of technology as an inevitable force free from societal censorship.


2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 671-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Drayton

The contemporary historian, as she or he speaks to the public about the origins and meanings of the present, has important ethical responsibilities. ‘Imperial’ historians, in particular, shape how politicians and the public imagine the future of the world. This article examines how British imperial history, as it emerged as an academic subject since about 1900, often lent ideological support to imperialism, while more generally it suppressed or avoided the role of violence and terror in the making and keeping of the Empire. It suggests that after 2001, and during the Iraq War, in particular, a new Whig historiography sought to retail a flattering narrative of the British Empire’s past, and concludes with a call for a post-patriotic imperial history which is sceptical of power and speaks for those on the underside of global processes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Mahr

Human beings regularly 'mentally travel' to past and future times in memory and imagination. In theory, whether an event is remembered or imagined (its ‘mnemicity’) underspecifies whether it is oriented towards the past or the future (its ‘temporality’). However, it remains unclear to what extent the temporal orientation of such episodic simulations is cognitively represented separately from their status as memories or imagination. To address this question, we investigated whether episodic simulations are more easily distinguishable in memory by virtue of their temporal orientation or their mnemicity. In three experiments (N = 360), participants were asked to generate and later recall events differing along the lines of temporal orientation (past/future) and mnemicity (remembered/imagined). Across all of our experiments, we consistently found that participants were more likely to confuse in recall event simulations that shared the same temporal orientation rather than the same mnemicity. These results show that the temporal orientation of episodic representations can be cognitively represented separately from their mnemicity and have implications for debates about the role of temporality in episodic simulation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 809-833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Breidbach ◽  
Sunmee Choi ◽  
Benjamin Ellway ◽  
Byron W. Keating ◽  
Katerina Kormusheva ◽  
...  

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the history and future of service operations, with the goal to identify key theoretical and technological advances, as well as fundamental themes that can help to imagine the future of service operations in 2050. Design/methodology/approach A review of the service operations literature was undertaken to inform a discussion regarding the role that technology will play in the future of service operations. Findings The future of service operations is framed in terms of three key themes – complexity, orchestration, and elasticity. The paper makes three contributions to the service science literature by: reviewing key themes underpinning extant service operations research to frame future trajectories of service operations research; elaborating a vision of service operations in 2050 based on history and technology; and outlining a research agenda for future service operations. Practical implications The case of service automation is used to provide an illustration of how the three themes converge to define future service operations, and in particular, to show how technology is recasting the role of the firm. Originality/value Service operations in the next 30 years will be very different from what it was in the past 30 years. This paper differs from other review papers by identifying three key themes that will characterize and instill new insights into the future of service operations research.


2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-260
Author(s):  
Helena Knyazeva ◽  

An extended approach to the comprehension of virtual reality is developed in the article. Virtual reality is understood not only as a logically possible or cybernetically constructed reality but also as continuous turbulence of potencies of the complex natural and social world we live in, the wandering of complex systems and organizations over a field of possibilities, such a realization of forms and structures in which many formations remain in latent, potential forms, and are in the permanent process of making and multiplying a spectrum of possibilities, lead to the growth of the evolutionary tree of paths of development. It is shown that such an understanding of virtual reality corresponds to concepts and notions developed in the modern science of complexity. The most significant concepts are considered, such as the nonlinearity of time, the relationship of space and time, the uncertainty of the past and the openness of the future, the choice and construction of the future at the moments of passing the bifurcation points. Some cultural and historical prototypes of these modern ideas of virtual reality are given. It is substantiated that the vision of virtual reality being developed today can play the role of a heuristic tool for understanding the functioning and stimulation of human creativity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Brett

Fashion is a product and reflection of time and tantamount to modernity. The promise of which rests in the future, thus fashion is forever looking forward in the ambition to be ‘new’. Vintage fashion, namely clothes from past periods apprehend this perpetual cycle, often adopted by alternative groups of consumers to create different looks as a subcultural trend. This trend has in recent times been subsumed by capitalism while the label ‘vintage’ has become a marketing term applied to new mass-produced fashions. What can be understood from society’s attitude to progress and the promise of modernity by this remaking of the past into a pastiche? Fashion can prove to be a perfect conduit through which to understand complex conceptualisations of time, and more specifically the concept of 'political time'. What people wear can further cast a light on public consciousness and its faith in development and hope for a better future. This article will consider conceptions of time and modernity as a theoretical tool to reflect on the development of nouveau vintage, which is a recreation of vintage styles and fashion, mass produced for a wider market. Including the role of memory and dialectics, nouveau vintage can be thought of as a refusal for development, while demonstrating fashion is a cultural object worthy of philosophical enquiry.


As they prepare for graduation, college students often make numerous plans for the future. They consider the job market and prospects for marriage, family, and other relationships. Pursuing a diversity-rich future is also important, and in this chapter, the five interviewees discuss the potential role of culture in their post-college lives. Additional considerations include looking at the world through a global lens, approaching diversity as a value, and engaging the outrage of those who have suffered at the hands of injustice. Though even the best crystal ball cannot predict what will happen tomorrow, today's careful planning with sensitivity towards culture may be sufficient for ensuring a brighter road ahead.


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