scholarly journals Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-107
Author(s):  
Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Us

This paper investigates the effect of COVID-19 and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU), with a focus on the pre-pandemic phase of the sanitary crisis. Using daily data for the period January 21 – March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that the new infection cases reported at global level, and the fatality ratio, have no significant effect on the US EPU during the first phase of the crisis, whereas the oil price negative dynamics leads to increased uncertainty. However, analysing the situation outside China, we discover that both new case announcements and the COVID-19 associated death ratio have a positive influence on the US EPU. Keywords: coronavirus; economic policy uncertainty; COVID-19; EPU; oil prices

scholarly journals COVID-19 Deaths Cases Impact on Oil Prices: Probable Scenarios on Saudi Arabia Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelmageed Algamdi ◽  
Said Khalfa Mokhtar Brika ◽  
Adam Musa ◽  
Khalil Chergui
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Usa

The purpose of this paper is to discuss death cases on the World, exacerbated investor fears, uncertainties, and increased volatility of crude oil prices in financial markets. The reaction absorbed the epidemic gradually until January 22. Still, the market situation changed soon with a sharp drop in prices, and prices slowly recovered after that until June 14. The data of this research using an econometric model, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), according to the Gets methodology, using daily data, January 22 –June 14, 2020. Our ARDL shows, the death ratio has a significant negative effect on oil price dynamics. However, the death ratio has an indirect impact on volatility in Crude Oil prices. The findings show that the death toll of COVID-19 has a significant impact on oil prices in Saudi Arabia (KSA). However, the preliminary results mainly influence by the situation reported in the USA. When we assess the case outside the USA, and we see the positive effect of the COVID-19 death figures on oil prices, therefore, stress the amplification of death-related risks to the financial market and the real economy, caused by increased, policy-induced economic uncertainty in the United States.

scholarly journals Unveiling the Effect of Mean and Volatility Spillover between the United States Economic Policy Uncertainty and WTI Crude Oil Price

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6662
Author(s):  
Ruixin Su ◽  
Jianguo Du ◽  
Fakhar Shahzad ◽  
Xingle Long
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Us

Grounded in the Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model, and BEKK-GARCH model, our current study aims to examine the effect of mean and volatility spillover between the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. Using the US EPU monthly index and WTI spot price data from 1996 to 2019, we revealed that there is a one-way Granger causality link between the US EPU and spot price of WTI crude oil. The VAR model not only illustrated that there is a mean spillover effect between WTI oil price and US EPU, but they will also be affected by its memory, as well as the other’s past. At the same time, it also pointed out that this correlation has positive and negative directions. The BEKK-GARCH model test yielded similar conclusions to the VAR model and, importantly, proved a two-way volatility spillover effect between the US EPU and WTI spot price fluctuations. In conclusion, US economic policy has a substantial influence on the variation of global crude oil prices, as an essential strategic reserve resource and will also influence the government’s economic policy formulation. Understanding the association between WTI crude oil price and policy uncertainty not only helps investors to manage assets allocations and mitigate losses but also guides US policymakers to adjust the energy structure for economic sustainability.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-115
Author(s):  
Ugur Korkut Pata
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country and the increase in the number of cases and deaths outside the country may vary. To examine this, the study employs the bootstrap ARDL cointegration approach from March 8, 2020 to May 24, 2020. According to the bootstrap ARDL results, a long-run equilibrium relationship is confirmed for five out of the ten models. The long-term coefficients obtained from the ARDL models suggest that an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths outside of the UK and the US has a significant effect on economic policy uncertainty. The US is more affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The UK, on the other hand, is more negatively affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths outside the country than the increase in the number of cases. Moreover, another significant finding from the study demonstrates that COVID-19 is a factor of great uncertainty for both countries in the short-term.

scholarly journals Impact of Trump’s Phenomenon, Brexit, & Oil Prices Fluctuation Toward Indonesia’s Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 348-373
Author(s):  
Abdul Holik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run

This paper tries to find impact of global uncertainties toward Indonesia’s economic growth. Several problems which will be discussed in this paper namely: impacts of President Donald Trump’s policies, Brexit, and uncertainty regarding crude oil prices. It conducted from 1st quarter of 2010 until 1st quarter of 2017. The method of analysis used here is VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). We use dummy variable to capture the specific change of economic policies when Brexit and Trump’s emergence appear as the major issues which attract attention around the world. We consider these as the uncertainties which influence global society. Based on the result, there is positive impact of economic policy uncertainty in UK in the long-run. When Brexit was taken into account, in the short-run, it also has positive impact toward Indonesia’s economic growth. Meanwhile economic policy uncertainty in the US generates negative impact on Indonesia’s economic growth. But Trump’s emergence in the US presidency produces positive impact in the short-run. Oil price fluctuation as the latest shock in the global context has positive significant impact on Indonesia’s economic growth. We consider these results as ways to find breakthrough in understanding of changing policies from developed countries; that not all of them will contribute to negative matters. The conjecture, hunch, and any speculation must be postponed due to lack of convincing proofs.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ugur Korkut Pata
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of cases and deaths outside the country may vary. To examine this, the study employs bootstrap ARDL cointegration approach from March 8, 2020 to May 24, 2020. According to the bootstrap ARDL results, a long-run equilibrium relationship is confirmed for five out of the 10 models. The long-term coefficients obtained from the ARDL models suggest that an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths outside of the UK and the US has a significant effect on economic policy uncertainty. The US is more affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The UK, on the other hand, is more negatively affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths outside the country than the increase in the number of cases. Moreover, another important finding from the study demonstrates that COVID-19 is a factor of great uncertainty for both countries in the short-term.

Factors Determining Gold Prices in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anis Mat Dalam ◽  
Noorhaslinda Kulub Abd Rashid ◽  
Jaharudin Padli
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Gold Reserve

Gold is a valuable asset to a country because of its liquidity. Gold reserve can stabilize the currency in a country. The objective of this paper is to identify the factors contributing to the volatility of gold prices, such as Real Malaysia GDP, inflation rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates. The data was analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with time series data, with 30-year coverage from 1987 to 2016. Findings showed that only Real Malaysia GDP and crude oil prices were significantly related to gold prices. As a conclusion, this study can be used as reference by other investors. The author suggests to other researchers to further improve upon this study by adding more variables or diversifying the variables that relate to volatility of gold prices.

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