scholarly journals FORECASTING THE GROWTH RATE OF GULLIES IN THE UDMURT REPUBLIC

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-393
Author(s):  
M.Yu. Zaitseva ◽  
I.I. Rysin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Initial Time Series ◽  
Udmurt Republic

The present study is aimed at forecasting the processes of gullyerosion in the Udmurt Republic using the methods of mathematical modeling. Five time series characterizing the average linear growth rate of gullies for the period from 1978 to 2017 were selected as a source material. Gullies were grouped according to the geographical principle and genesis. As part of this work, it is expected to build a medium-term forecast for the period 2018-2022. Fourier analysis was chosen as the basis for working with the initial time series. The results of the obtained models are graphically displayed. Subsequent regression analysis confirmed the validity of the model for at least four of the five groups of gullies. However, when comparing the obtained forecast values with those actually measured in 2018, it turned out that this model could not take into account the possible extreme values of the growth of individual gullies in the group.

scholarly journals Quantifying acoustic damping using flame chemiluminescence

2016 ◽  
Vol 808 ◽  
pp. 245-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Boujo ◽  
A. Denisov ◽  
B. Schuermans ◽  
N. Noiray
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Dynamic Pressure ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Acoustic Damping ◽  
Output Only

Thermoacoustic instabilities in gas turbines and aeroengine combustors fall within the category of complex systems. They can be described phenomenologically using nonlinear stochastic differential equations, which constitute the grounds for output-only model-based system identification. It has been shown recently that one can extract the governing parameters of the instabilities, namely the linear growth rate and the nonlinear component of the thermoacoustic feedback, using dynamic pressure time series only. This is highly relevant for practical systems, which cannot be actively controlled due to a lack of cost-effective actuators. The thermoacoustic stability is given by the linear growth rate, which results from the combination of the acoustic damping and the coherent feedback from the flame. In this paper, it is shown that it is possible to quantify the acoustic damping of the system, and thus to separate its contribution to the linear growth rate from the one of the flame. This is achieved by postprocessing in a simple way simultaneously acquired chemiluminescence and acoustic pressure data. It provides an additional approach to further unravel from observed time series the key mechanisms governing the system dynamics. This straightforward method is illustrated here using experimental data from a combustion chamber operated at several linearly stable and unstable operating conditions.

Microborings and growth in Late Ordovician halysitids and other corals

1993 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 922-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Elias ◽  
Dong-Jin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Weight Percent ◽  
Late Ordovician ◽  
Coral Growth ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Skeletal Density ◽  
Rugose Coral ◽  
Endolithic Algae

Microborings in the Late Ordovician tabulate corals Catenipora rubra (a halysitid) and Manipora amicarum (a cateniform nonhalysitid) and in an epizoic solitary rugose coral differ from nearly all of those previously reported in Paleozoic corals. These microborings were formed within the coralla by endolithic algae and fungi located beneath living polyps. Comparable structures in the Late Ordovician tabulate Quepora ?agglomeratiformis (a halysitid) represent algal microborings, not spicules, and halysitids are corals, not sponges as suggested by Kaźmierczak (1989).Endolithic algae in cateniform tabulates relied primarily on light entering through the outer walls of the ranks rather than through the polyps; lacunae within coralla permitted appropriate levels of light to reach many corallites. The direction of boring was determined by corallum microstructure and possibly also by the distribution of organic matter within the skeleton. There is an apparent inverse correlation between boring activity and coral growth rate.The location and relative abundance of pyritized microborings within calcareous coralla can be established quantitatively and objectively from electron microprobe determinations of weight percent sulfur along appropriate traverses of the coral skeleton. The distribution of such microborings in Catenipora rubra and Manipora amicarum is comparable to algal banding in modern corals; this is the first report of such banding in the interiors of Paleozoic corals. Change in the intensity of boring within each corallum was evidently a response to variation in the linear growth rate of the coral, or to fluctuation in an environmental factor (perhaps light intensity) that could control both algal activity and growth rate in these corals. Change in the algal boring intensity and linear growth rate of the coral was generally but not always seasonal and usually but not invariably associated with change in the density of coral skeletal deposition.Cyclic bands of boring abundance maxima within fossil colonial corals provide a measure of annual linear growth comparable to the widely accepted method based on skeletal density bands. Algal bands are more sporadically developed than density bands within and among coralla, thus increasing the difficulty of interpretation. Fluctuations in the abundance of algal microborings apparently provide a detailed record of changes in the linear growth rate of colonies and of individuals within colonies. Combined analyses of microboring abundance and skeletal density will contribute significantly to our understanding of the biological and environmental factors involved in endolithic activity and coral growth.

scholarly journals A forecasting the consumer price index using time series model

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 10002
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Shinkarenko ◽  
Alexey Hostryk ◽  
Larysa Shynkarenko ◽  
Leonid Dolinskyi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Autocorrelation Functions ◽  
Minimum Error ◽  
Initial Time Series

This article examines the behavior of the consumer price index in Ukraine for the period from January 2010 to September 2020. The characteristics of the initial time series, the analysis of autocorrelation functions made it possible to reveal the tendency of their development and the presence of annual seasonality. To model the behavior of the consumer price index and forecast for the next months, two types of models were used: the additive ARIMA*ARIMAS model, better known as the model of Box-Jenkins and the exponential smoothing model with the seasonality estimate of Holt-Winters. As a result of using the STATISTICA package, the most adequate models were built, reflecting the monthly dynamics of the consumer price index in Ukraine. The inflation forecast was carried out on the basis of the Holt-Winters model, which has a minimum error.

scholarly journals Forecasting The Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paraschos Maniatis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Laplace Distribution ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Smoothing Techniques ◽  
Initial Time Series ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-pagination: none;" class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="color: black; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This study attempts to model the exchange rate between Euro and USD using univariate models- in particular ARIMA and exponential smoothing techniques. The time series analysis reveals non stationarity in data and, therefore, the models fail to give reliable predictions. However, differencing the initial time series the resulting series shows strong resemblance to white noise. The analysis of this series advocates independence in data and distribution satisfactorily close to Laplace distribution. The application of Laplace distribution offers reliable probabilities in forecasting changes in the exchange rate.</span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>

scholarly journals <sup>210</sup>Pb-<sup>226</sup>Ra chronology reveals rapid growth rate of <i>Madrepora oculata</I> and <i>Lophelia pertusa</i> on world's largest cold-water coral reef

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 12247-12283
Author(s):  
P. Sabatier ◽  
J.-L. Reyss ◽  
J. M. Hall-Spencer ◽  
C. Colin ◽  
N. Frank ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Coral Reef ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Growth Conditions ◽  
Age And Growth ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Lophelia Pertusa ◽  
Water Coral

Abstract. Here we show the use of the 210Pb-226Ra excess method to determine the growth rate of corals from one of the world's largest known cold-water coral reef, the Røst Reef off Norway. Two large branching framework-forming cold-water coral specimens, one Lophelia pertusa and one Madrepora oculata were collected alive at 350 m water depth from the Røst Reef at ~67° N and ~9° E. Pb and Ra isotopes were measured along the major growth axis of both specimens using low level alpha and gamma spectrometry and the corals trace element compositions were studied using ICP-QMS. Due to the different chemical behaviors of Pb and Ra in the marine environment, 210Pb and 226Ra were not incorporated the same way into the aragonite skeleton of those two cold-water corals. Thus to assess of the growth rates of both specimens we have here taken in consideration the exponential decrease of initially incorporated 210Pb as well as the ingrowth of 210Pb from the decay of 226Ra. Moreover a~post-depositional 210Pb incorporation is found in relation to the Mn-Fe coatings that could not be entirely removed from the oldest parts of the skeletons. The 226Ra activities in both corals were fairly constant, then assuming constant uptake of 210Pb through time the 210Pb-226Ra chronology can be applied to calculate linear growth rate. The 45.5 cm long branch of M. oculata reveals an age of 31 yr and a~linear growth rate of 14.4 ± 1.1 mm yr−1, i.e. 2.6 polyps per year. However, a correction regarding a remaining post-depositional Mn-Fe oxide coating is needed for the base of the specimen. The corrected age tend to confirm the radiocarbon derived basal age of 40 yr (using 14C bomb peak) with a mean growth rate of 2 polyps yr−1. This rate is similar to the one obtained in Aquaria experiments under optimal growth conditions. For the 80 cm-long specimen of L. pertusa a remaining contamination of metal-oxides is observed for the middle and basal part of the coral skeleton, inhibiting similar accurate age and growth rate estimates. However, the youngest branch was free of Mn enrichment and this 15 cm section reveals a growth rate of 8 mm yr−1 (~1 polyp every two to three years). However, the 210Pb growth rate estimate is within the lowermost ranges of previous growth rate estimates and may thus reflect that the coral was not developing at optimal growth conditions. Overall, 210Pb-226Ra dating can be successfully applied to determine the age and growth rate of framework-forming cold-water corals, however, removal of post-depositional Mn-Fe oxide deposits is a prerequisite. If successful, large branching M. oculata and L. pertusa coral skeletons provide unique oceanographic archive for studies of intermediate water environmentals with an up to annual time resolution and spanning over many decades.

scholarly journals Generation of Wave Groups by Shear Layer Instability

Fluids ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Grimshaw
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Group Velocity ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Linear Stability Theory ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Wave Groups ◽  
Weakly Nonlinear ◽  
Complex Valued ◽  
Fundamental Requirement ◽  
Temporal Growth Rate

The linear stability theory of wind-wave generation is revisited with an emphasis on the generation of wave groups. The outcome is the fundamental requirement that the group move with a real-valued group velocity. This implies that both the wave frequency and the wavenumber should be complex-valued, and in turn this then leads to a growth rate in the reference frame moving with the group velocity which is in general different from the temporal growth rate. In the weakly nonlinear regime, the amplitude envelope of the wave group is governed by a forced nonlinear Schrödinger equation. The effect of the wind forcing term is to enhance modulation instability both in terms of the wave growth and in terms of the domain of instability in the modulation wavenumber space. Also, the soliton solution for the wave envelope grows in amplitude at twice the linear growth rate.

scholarly journals Wavelength dependence of the linear growth rate of the <I>E<sub>s</sub></I> layer instability

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1311-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. B. Cosgrove
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Electric Fields ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Generalized Derivation ◽  
Wavelength Dependence ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Significant Wavelength

Abstract. It has recently been shown, by computation of the linear growth rate, that midlatitude sporadic-E (Es) layers are subject to a large scale electrodynamic instability. This instability is a logical candidate to explain certain frontal structuring events, and polarization electric fields, which have been observed in Es layers by ionosondes, by coherent scatter radars, and by rockets. However, the original growth rate derivation assumed an infinitely thin Es layer, and therefore did not address the short wavelength cutoff. Also, the same derivation ignored the effects of F region loading, which is a significant wavelength dependent effect. Herein is given a generalized derivation that remedies both these short comings, and thereby allows a computation of the wavelength dependence of the linear growth rate, as well as computations of various threshold conditions. The wavelength dependence of the linear growth rate is compared with observed periodicities, and the role of the zeroth order meridional wind is explored. A three-dimensional paper model is used to explain the instability geometry, which has been defined formally in previous works.

Research on a Method of Fault Signal Extraction Based on Improved Algorithm

2012 ◽  
Vol 217-219 ◽  
pp. 2692-2696
Author(s):  
Ying Wang ◽  
You Rong Li ◽  
Xiao Qin Zhu ◽  
Pan Lin ◽  
Yue Sheng Luo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Partial Information ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Time Signal ◽  
Shock Attenuation ◽  
Information Time ◽  
Initial Time Series ◽  
Fault Information ◽  
Sequential Decomposition

Considering the difficulty of diagnosis signal de-noising and feature extraction problems, according to the characteristics of periodicity and shock attenuation respond of mechanical fault vibration signals, a method of improved sequential decomposition algorithm is proposed, it transforms an initial time series into a group of two-dimensional time series, prominent time series partial information, time series decomposition is reversible, can be used for filtering and feature extraction of time signal. Through the simulation and experiments, the validity of method for highlighting partial feature information of the signal is verified, helping to extract weak fault information in strong background noise environment.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Biomass and Chitin Production of Morchella Mushrooms Grown on Starch-Based Substrates

Foods ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aikaterini Papadaki ◽  
Panagiota Diamantopoulou ◽  
Seraphim Papanikolaou ◽  
Antonios Philippoussis
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Biomass Yield ◽  
Linear Growth Rate ◽  
Waste Streams ◽  
Mycelium Growth ◽  
Potato Dextrose Broth ◽  
Polysaccharide Content ◽  
Potato Peels ◽  
Mycelium Growth Rate

Morchella sp. is one of the most expensive mushrooms with a high nutritional profile. In this study, the polysaccharide content of Morchella species was investigated. Specifically, mycelium growth rate, biomass production, sclerotia formation, and glucosamine and total polysaccharides content of six Morchella species grown on a starch-based media were evaluated. Submerged fermentations in potato dextrose broth resulted in a glucosamine content of around 3.0%. In solid-state fermentations (SSF), using potato dextrose agar, a high linear growth rate (20.6 mm/day) was determined. Increased glucosamine and total polysaccharides content were observed after the formation of sclerotia. Biomass and glucosamine content were correlated, and the equations were used for the indirect estimation of biomass in SSF with agro-industrial starch-based materials. Wheat grains (WG), potato peels (PP), and a mixture of 1:1 of them (WG–PP) were evaluated as substrates. Results showed that the highest growth rate of 9.05 mm/day was determined on WG and the maximum biomass yield (407 mg/g) on WG–PP. The total polysaccharide content reached up to 18.4% of dried biomass in WG–PP. The results of the present study proved encouraging for the efficient bioconversion of potato and other starch-based agro-industrial waste streams to morel biomass and sclerotia eliciting nutritional and bioactive value.

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