USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO PREDICT TERRITORIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Modern economic science is unthinkable without predicting and planning the prospects for economic life development. There are many different mathematical and statistical tools in the arsenal of scientists as well as practitioners and economists today in purpose of forecasting. To date, one of the most prominent effective tools for data analytics is artificial neural networks. Artificial Neural Network - is a mathematical mod- el created in the likeness of a human neural network, and its software and hardware implementation. We carried out modeling and forecasting of regional economic indicators using the artificial neural network of the three-layer perceptron architecture. The network architecture and neuron settings were automatically formatted through the programming language R and its package - Neuralnet. During the forecasting phase, the data vectors were presented as data frame in five input parameters (DFI, FAI, EMP, BT, CPI), according to the neural network forecast of the regional gross domestic product (RGDP_NN) was calculated. All data are from the Imereti region and are taken from official GeoStat sources. Forecasting was done at the same time scale (2006-2017) to enable us to compare the predicted values with the actual ones to verify the level of fore- cast accuracy. We also tested the results of the neural network in another way - compared to the predicted values using multiple linear regression on the same data. The accuracy of the predicted values calculated by the neural network was quite high, which was not declining but slightly ahead of the accuracy coefficients of the predicted values obtained through linear regression. Also, the predictive values calculated by the neural network with high adequacy and accuracy were compared with actual, existing ones. Presented material shows that the use of artificial neural networks for the prediction of territorial economic indicators is reasonable and justified. Their role in analyzing and predicting indicators that are characterized by nonstationarity, dynamism, lack of a definite trend, periodicity, nonlinear structure is especially increased. It is therefore advisable to apply this method in regional economic studies, in predicting territorial development plans, strategies, targets and indicators.

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Artificial Neural Networks

Intelligent Information Technologies ◽

10.4018/978-1-59904-941-0.ch010 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 222-243

Author(s):

Joarder Kamruzzaman ◽

Ruhul Sarker

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Network Models ◽

Neural Network Models ◽

Network Applications ◽

The Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Neural Network Applications

The primary aim of this chapter is to present an overview of the artificial neural network basics and operation, architectures, and the major algorithms used for training the neural network models. As can be seen in subsequent chapters, neural networks have made many useful contributions to solve theoretical and practical problems in finance and manufacturing areas. The secondary aim here is therefore to provide a brief review of artificial neural network applications in finance and manufacturing areas.

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Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks in Finance and Manufacturing ◽

10.4018/978-1-59140-670-9.ch001 ◽

2006 ◽

pp. 1-27 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Joarder Kamruzzaman ◽

Ruhul A. Sarker

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Network Models ◽

Neural Network Models ◽

Network Applications ◽

The Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Neural Network Applications

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Peramalan Penjualan Kendaraan Mobil Segmen B2B dengan Metode Regresi Linear Berganda, Jaringan Saraf Tiruan dan Jaringan Saraf Tiruan – Algoritma Genetika

EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL ◽

10.29303/emj.v3i2.80 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 83

Author(s):

Muhammad Agung Nugraha ◽

Farizal Farizal ◽

Djoko Sihono Gabriel

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Genetic Algorithms ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Multiple Linear Regression ◽

Decision Making Unit ◽

Car Sales ◽

Artificial Neural

This study aims to create an effective forecasting model in predicting sales of car products in the B2B segment (Business to Business) to obtain estimates of product sales in the future. This research uses multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks that are optimized by genetic algorithms. Forecasting factors for car sales are generally issued by total national car sales, the Consumer Price Index, the Consumer Confidence Index, the Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Fuel Oil Price. The author has also gotten the factors that play a role in the sale of B2B segment by diverting the survey to 106 DMU (Decision Making Unit) who decide to purchase cars in their company. Then we evaluate the results of the questionnaire in training data and simulations on the Artificial Neural Network. Optimized Artificial Neural Networks with Genetic Algorithms can improve B2B segment car sales' accuracy when comparing error values in the ordinary Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression.

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Prediction of sweet corn yield depending on cultivation technology parameters by using linear regression and artificial neural network methods

Biosystems Diversity ◽

10.15421/011802 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 11-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

P. V. Lykhovyd

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Data Processing ◽

Field Experiments ◽

Sweet Corn ◽

Corn Yield ◽

Artificial Neural

Artificial neural networks and linear regression are widely used in particularly all branches of science for modeling and prediction. Linear regression is an old data processing tool, and artificial neural networks are a comparatively new one. The goal of the study was to determine whether artificial neural networks are more accurate than linear regression in sweet corn yield prediction. In the study we used a dataset obtained from field experiments on the technological improvement of sweet corn cultivation. The field experiments were conducted during the period from 2014 to 2016 on dark-chestnut soil under drip irrigated conditions in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine. We studied the impact of the moldboard plowing depths, mineral fertilizer application rates and plant densities on the crop yield. A significant impact of all the studied factors on the sweet corn productivity was proved by using the analysis of variance. The highest yield of sweet corn ears without husks (10.93 t ha–1) was under the moldboard plowing at the depth of 20–22 cm, mineral fertilizers application rate of N120P120, plant density of 65,000 plants ha–1. Data processing by using the linear regression and artificial neural network methods showed that the latter is a great deal better than linear regression in sweet corn yield prediction. Higher accuracy of the artificial neural network prediction was proved by the higher value of the coefficient of determination (R2) – 0.978, in comparison to 0.897 for the linear regression prediction model. We conclude that artificial neural networks are a much better data processing tool, especially, in the life sciences and for prediction of the non-linear natural processes and phenomena. The main disadvantage of the neural network models is their “black box” nature. However, linear regression will not lose its popularity among scientists in the nearest future. Linear regression is a much simpler data analysis tool, it is easier to perform the prediction, but it still provides a sufficiently high level of accuracy.

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Artificial neural networks, quantile regression, and linear regression for site index prediction in the presence of outliers

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira ◽

10.1590/s1678-3921.pab2019.v54.00078 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 54 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Carlos Alberto Araújo Júnior ◽

Pábulo Diogo de Souza ◽

Adriana Leandra de Assis ◽

Christian Dias Cabacinha ◽

Helio Garcia Leite ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Quantile Regression ◽

Site Index ◽

Permanent Plots ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

The Stability

Abstract: The objective of this work was to compare methods of obtaining the site index for eucalyptus (Eucalyptus spp.) stands, as well as to evaluate their impact on the stability of this index in databases with and without outliers. Three methods were tested, using linear regression, quantile regression, and artificial neural network. Twenty-two permanent plots from a continuous forest inventory were used, measured in trees with ages from 23 to 83 months. The outliers were identified using a boxplot graphic. The artificial neural network showed better results than the linear and quantile regressions, both for dominant height and site index estimates. The stability obtained for the site index classification by the artificial neural network was also better than the one obtained by the other methods, regardless of the presence or the absence of outliers in the database. This shows that the artificial neural network is a solid modelling technique in the presence of outliers. When the cause of the presence of outliers in the database is not known, they can be kept in it if techniques as artificial neural networks or quantile regression are used.

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Prediction of Hardenability of Gear Steel Using Stepwise Polynomial Regression and Artificial Neural Network

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.118-120.332 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 118-120 ◽

pp. 332-335

Author(s):

Xiu Hua Gao ◽

Tian Yong Deng ◽

Hao Ran Wang ◽

Chun Lin Qiu ◽

Ke Min Qi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Chemical Composition ◽

Polynomial Regression ◽

Gear Steel ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Predicted Values ◽

Polynomial Regression Model

The prediction of the hardenability of gear steel has been carried using stepwise polynomial regression and artificial neural networks (ANN). The software was programmed to quantitatively predict the hardenability of gear steel by its chemical composition using two calculating models respectively. The prediction results using artificial neural networks have more precise than the stepwise polynomial regression model. The predicted values of the ANN coincide well with the actual data. So an important foundation has been laid for prediction and controlling the production of gear steel.

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Classifying Descriptions of Goods with Artificial Neural Networks

Revista Singular - Engenharia Tecnologia e Gestão ◽

10.33911/singular-etg.v1i1.19 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 53-57

Author(s):

Vinicius Di Oliveira ◽

Marcelo Ladeira

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

The Neural Network ◽

Legal Document ◽

Artificial Neural

The present study aims to evaluate the performance of an artificial neural network in the classification of merchandise descriptions indicated in electronic bills, legal document used to record all commercial transactions in Brazil. For this, a significant sample of the actual descriptions will be used as well as a overlook about the performance of the neural network with a KNN and a GBM algorithms forecasting the category of the merchandise each description refers. This paper brings a method for classifying descriptions of goods with Artificial Neural Networks. The descriptions are small non structured texts, maximum of 120 characters, relating to goods traded in commercial transactions.

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Non-Destructive Micromagnetic Determination of Hardness and Case Hardening Depth Using Linear Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

Metals ◽

10.3390/met11010018 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 18

Author(s):

Rahel Jedamski ◽

Jérémy Epp

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Case Hardening ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Non Destructive

Non-destructive determination of workpiece properties after heat treatment is of great interest in the context of quality control in production but also for prevention of damage in subsequent grinding process. Micromagnetic methods offer good possibilities, but must first be calibrated with reference analyses on known states. This work compares the accuracy and reliability of different calibration methods for non-destructive evaluation of carburizing depth and surface hardness of carburized steel. Linear regression analysis is used in comparison with new methods based on artificial neural networks. The comparison shows a slight advantage of neural network method and potential for further optimization of both approaches. The quality of the results can be influenced, among others, by the number of teaching steps for the neural network, whereas more teaching steps does not always lead to an improvement of accuracy for conditions not included in the initial calibration.

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Optimal Artificial Neural Network Type Selection Method for Usage in Smart House Systems

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s21010047 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 47

Author(s):

Vasyl Teslyuk ◽

Artem Kazarian ◽

Natalia Kryvinska ◽

Ivan Tsmots

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Networks ◽

Input Data ◽

Optimization Criterion ◽

Fuzzy Input ◽

Different Types ◽

Smart House ◽

Artificial Neural

In the process of the “smart” house systems work, there is a need to process fuzzy input data. The models based on the artificial neural networks are used to process fuzzy input data from the sensors. However, each artificial neural network has a certain advantage and, with a different accuracy, allows one to process different types of data and generate control signals. To solve this problem, a method of choosing the optimal type of artificial neural network has been proposed. It is based on solving an optimization problem, where the optimization criterion is an error of a certain type of artificial neural network determined to control the corresponding subsystem of a “smart” house. In the process of learning different types of artificial neural networks, the same historical input data are used. The research presents the dependencies between the types of neural networks, the number of inner layers of the artificial neural network, the number of neurons on each inner layer, the error of the settings parameters calculation of the relative expected results.

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Application of artificial neural networks to predict the deflections of reinforced concrete beams

Studia Geotechnica et Mechanica ◽

10.1515/sgem-2016-0017 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 38 (2) ◽

pp. 37-46 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mateusz Kaczmarek ◽

Agnieszka Szymańska

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Reinforced Concrete ◽

Concrete Beams ◽

Reinforced Concrete Beams ◽

The Neural Network ◽

Eurocode 2 ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Concrete Elements

Abstract Nonlinear structural mechanics should be taken into account in the practical design of reinforced concrete structures. Cracking is one of the major sources of nonlinearity. Description of deflection of reinforced concrete elements is a computational problem, mainly because of the difficulties in modelling the nonlinear stress-strain relationship of concrete and steel. In design practise, in accordance with technical rules (e.g., Eurocode 2), a simplified approach for reinforced concrete is used, but the results of simplified calculations differ from the results of experimental studies. Artificial neural network is a versatile modelling tool capable of making predictions of values that are difficult to obtain in numerical analysis. This paper describes the creation and operation of a neural network for making predictions of deflections of reinforced concrete beams at different load levels. In order to obtain a database of results, that is necessary for training and testing the neural network, a research on measurement of deflections in reinforced concrete beams was conducted by the authors in the Certified Research Laboratory of the Building Engineering Institute at Wrocław University of Science and Technology. The use of artificial neural networks is an innovation and an alternative to traditional methods of solving the problem of calculating the deflections of reinforced concrete elements. The results show the effectiveness of using artificial neural network for predicting the deflection of reinforced concrete beams, compared with the results of calculations conducted in accordance with Eurocode 2. The neural network model presented in this paper can acquire new data and be used for further analysis, with availability of more research results.

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