scholarly journals ECONOMIC SHOCKS ON PARTNERS’ TRADE; AFRICA AND ASEAN ON CHINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Yamoah Cobbold ◽  
Dan Owusu
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

This research studies the impact of macroeconomic shocks from African and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on China’s bilateral trade with them. Data on (GDP) per capita, FDI, inflation, unemployment rates, and trade openness (TO) of China’s African and ASEAN partners were sourced from the World Bank whilst imports and exports data were from the world integrated trade solutions (WITS). It uses the gravity model as a basis and the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) as well as multivariate regression estimators. The findings reveal that per capita of China’s partners have a strong positive impact on trade with them. Trade openness is reported to increase China’s imports but reduce exports to these partners. Further, an increase in FDI inflows to China’s trade partners leads to an increase in both imports and exports of China. KEYWORDS: Economic shocks, international trade, China, Africa, ASEAN, gravity model

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS OF NORTH MACEDONIA– A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Irena Kikerkova ◽  
◽  
Elena Makrevska Disoska ◽  
Katerina Toshevska-Trpchevska ◽  
Jasna Tonovska
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Candidate Country ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

The paper makes an indetail overview of the structure of the trade exchange of goods of Macedonia and explores the determinants of its bilateral trade flows using the gravity model. The analysis includes data on 40 trade partners of Macedonia in the period from 2005-2019. The used variables in the model are: GDP per capita difference, population, distance and relative endowments of factors of production (capital, land and labour). In most of the analyzed regressions the coefficients on determinants such as GDP per capita difference and population are positive and their impact upon the bilateral trade (as dependent variable) is statistically significant. Intensity of Macedonian trade decreases in regard of the distance from a trade partner and increases in partner’s size – the country tends to trade more with lager countries. In our analysis we included three dummy variables such as: membership in the EU and in CEFTA-2006 and common language. The impact of the possible membership in the EU is clearly positive and statistically significant. Being a candidate country for full EU membership, Macedonia trades more with EU trade partners rather than with the neibouring countries, members of CEFTA-2006. Keywords: bilateral trade, gravity model, trade partners, Republic of North Macedonia, European Union, CEFTA-2006

scholarly journals Quantitative dynamics of intra-BRICS trade

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-23
Author(s):  
Mohd Nayyer Rahman ◽  
Zeenat Fatima ◽  
Nida Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Trade Partners

The study uses an augmented gravity model to analyse intra-BRICS trade flows and the potential for establishing economic cooperation. It examines trade relations between BRICS with the help of the gravity model of international trade. Panel data from 2000 to 2017 were reviewed for bloc analysis of 20 trade partners. The analysis of the intra-BRICS trade flows is based on the Heckscher-Ohlin model. The results obtained confirm that the intra-BRICS trade relations have a sound positive impact on economic performance in these countries. Market size and economic index have a beneficial effect on the intra-BRICS trade flows. Market size is very elastic to trade, while trade tariffs and taxes within BRICS are manageable. Hence, the intra-BRICS trade has the potential to create strong economic ties within the member countries, and cooperation between the BRICS countries can have a significant influence on the globalisation of the world economy.

scholarly journals Can Highway Networks Promote Productivity? Evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Yumei Lin ◽  
Junpei Huang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Matrix Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Highway Construction ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
Highway Networks ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The total mileage of highways in China ranks first in the world and constitutes an important symbol of China’s modernization. Economists, however, continue to debate whether highways always promote economic growth in every region and how to assess the impact. In this paper, we first use the OD-MATRIX method to calculate the shortest highway traveling time among 332 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2013. It is shown that the reduction of traveling time brought by highway construction significantly improves enterprise productivity. Second, to further explore the mechanism at work, we apply market potential approach to examine its effect on productivity. It is found that on average, the enhanced market potential induced by highway construction in China positively affect enterprise productivity. Finally, we calculate urban centrality via the space gravity model and conduct a sample regression according to the rank of urban centrality. Interestingly, we find that the impact of highways on productivity varies depending on cities’ degree of urban centrality. Highways have a positive impact in high-centrality cities but a negative impact in low-centrality cities. This correlation can be explained, in turn, by factors that include labor and capital flow from low-centrality cities to high-centrality cities.

scholarly journals The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2273-2281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Meng ◽  
S. Yang ◽  
P. Shi ◽  
C. C. Jeager
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Globalization and technological revolutions are making the world more interconnected. International trade is an important approach linking the world. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan shocked the global supply chain, more attention has been paid to the global impact of large-scale disasters. China is the second largest trader in the world and faces frequent natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a gravity model for China's bilateral trade tailored to national circumstances and estimates the impact of natural disasters in China and trading partner countries on Chinese imports and exports. We analyzed Chinese and trading partner statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Study results show the following: (1) China's natural disasters have a positive impact on exports but have no significant impact on imports; (2) trading partner countries' natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports; (3) both development level and land area of the partners are important in determining the intensity of natural disaster impacts on China's bilateral trade. The above findings suggest that the impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, which demand further study.

scholarly journals The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 2003-2023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Meng ◽  
P. Shi ◽  
S. Yang ◽  
C. C. Jeager
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Globalization and technological revolutions are making the world more interconnected. International trade is one of the major approaches linking the world. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan shocked the global supply chain, more attention has been paid to the global impact of large-scale disasters. China is the second largest trader in the world and faces the most frequent natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a gravity model for China's bilateral trade tailored to national circumstances, and estimates the impact of natural disasters in China and trading partner countries on Chinese imports and exports. We analyzed Chinese and trading partner statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Study results show that: (1) China's natural disasters have a positive impact on imports, but have no significant impact on exports, (2) trading partner countries' natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports, (3) both development level and land area of the partners are important in determining the intensity of natural disaster impacts on China's bilateral trade. The above findings suggest that the impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, which demand further study.

Do China's Plywood Exports Depend on Trade Partners? Evidence from the Gravity Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-33
Author(s):  
Xue Feng ◽  
John M. Zobel ◽  
Guochun Wu ◽  
Donald G. Hodges
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Low Income ◽  
National Income ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
High Income Group ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Abstract A gravity model was formulated to identify the factors related to China's plywood exports and examine whether the impact of factors depended on trade partners using panel data from 2005 to 2015. The data set was divided into three groups based on the income of trade partners. The findings reveal that the factors performed differently in the three groups. For the high income group, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita gross national income (GNI), the ratio of per capita forest area, and Open were related to China's plywood exports. GDP, the ratio of per capita forest area, exchange rate, and Open were correlated to China's plywood export for the middle income group. In the low income group, per capita GNI, the ratio of per capita forest area, Open and Free Trade Agreements were significantly related to China's plywood exports.

scholarly journals Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110326
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao ◽  
Jean-Paul Ainam ◽  
Edem Koffi Amouzou ◽  
Williams Ayivi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Neural Network Analysis ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Recent research suggests that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would improve the bilateral trade between China and its partners. This article uses detailed bilateral export data from 1990 to 2017 to investigate the impact of China’s BRI on its trade partners using neural network analysis techniques and structural gravity model estimations. Our main findings suggest that the BRI countries would raise exports by a modest 5.053%. This indicates that export and network upgrades should be considered from economic and policy perspectives. The results also show that neural networks is more robust compared with structural gravity framework.

scholarly journals Impact of unemployment and income on entrepreneurship in post-apartheid South Africa: 1994–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Darma Mahadea ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
National Development ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Background: South Africa has made significant progress since the dawn of democracy in 1994. It registered positive economic growth rates and its real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased from R42 849 in 1994 to over R56 000 in 2015. However, employment growth lagged behind GDP growth, resulting in rising unemployment. Aim and setting: Entrepreneurship brings together labour and capital in generating income, output and employment. According to South Africa’s National Development Plan, employment growth would come mainly from small-firm entrepreneurship and economic growth. Accordingly, this article investigates the impact unemployment and per capita income have on early stage total entrepreneurship activity (TEA) in South Africa, using data covering the 1994–2015 period. Methods: The methodology used is the dynamic least squares regression. The article tests the assertion that economic growth, proxied by real per capita GDP income, promotes entrepreneurship and that high unemployment forces necessity entrepreneurship. Results: The regression results indicate that per capita real GDP, which increases with economic growth, has a highly significant, positive impact on entrepreneurial activity, while unemployment has a weaker effect. A 1% rise in real per capita GDP results in a 0.16% rise in TEA entrepreneurship, and a 1% rise in unemployment is associated with a 0.25% rise in TEA. Conclusion: There seems to be a strong pull factor, from income growth to entrepreneurship and a reasonable push from unemployment to entrepreneurship, as individuals without employment are forced to self-employment as a necessity, survival mechanism. Overall, a long-run co-integrating relationship seems plausible between unemployment, income and entrepreneurship in South Africa.

scholarly journals Impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in the world during 1975–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (91) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
B. B. Brychka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The study is concentrated on examination the impact of FDI on economic growth in the World during 1975–2015. The study consists of four consecutive parts, including introduction, literature review, model and methodology, data, empirical results and conclusion. Each part of the study is focused on its own goals. According to the results of the literature review, there is positive influence of FDI on economic growth in various countries. Economic growth is one of the most important goals of any country. The country image on the international level is dependent on its economic power. Economic growth provides an opportunity to improve the living standards in the country. Most researchers conclude that there is a positive influence of FDI on the countries’ economic growth. However, the impact of FDI is strong in developing countries. Moreover, this relationship is stronger in countries with higher educational and technological level, trade openness and development of the countries’ stock markets. Economists often build regression models to estimate the relationship between the variables. In order to find the impact of FDI on economic growth, we are going to apply linear regression models. We take two variables as indicators of the countries’ economic growth, including current GDP expressed in U.S dollars, and annual GDP growth rate. Taking into account that the World’s GDP in current U.S dollar is a factor variable with the mentioned resulting variables, the regression equation looks as follows: The R-squared of the built model is 0.99, indicating that roughly 100% of changes in the World’s GDP is caused by the chosen factors. As it is seen from the SAS output, the residuals of dependent variable and factors variables are distributed normally among its average value. Thus, non-normality is not observed in the model. Taking into account the coefficients of the factor variables, the log GDP is most sensitive to the changes in trade as a percent of GDP. The log GDP is not quite sensitive to the changes in FDI, since the coefficient of 0.000128 means that increasing of FDI by one unit increase the logarithmic value of GDP by $ 0.000128.

scholarly journals The impact of health care financing on the economic growth: EU countries analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Anastasiia Samoilikova ◽  
Rosen Kunev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Software Package ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Health Care Financing ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This article generalized modern tendencies and actual peculiarities of health care financing. The key aim of the research is to investigate the dynamics of health care financing as a factor of economic growth based on EU countries analysis. Systematization information sources connected with health care financing and its structure indicate that the EU countries analysis of dynamics of health care financing and its impact on economic growth was conducted fragmentary. This issue is still actual both for scholars and policymakers, especially for Ukraine, based on European trends. Investigation in the article is made according to the following stages: 1) introduction and relevance grounding; 2) literary review and identifying the necessity of research in this scientific area; 3) describing methodology, research methods, and current hypothesis; 4) characteristic of research results and confirming the hypothesis of the positive impact of the health care financing on economic growth; 5) making conclusions. Methodological tools of the research methods were structural and comparative analysis, logical generalization, and scientific abstraction. The methods of cross-country statistical and analytical analysis using the Excel 2010 software package for the sample from 14 EU countries for 2009-2018 (limited number of countries and limited data in 2018 relate to the data availability on open website of the EU statistical office) were applied to analyse the structure of health care financing, in particular financing schemes, main providers, and health care functions. The top countries in health care financing were identified. The methods of empirical analysis using the STATA software package for this data sample were used to confirm the hypothesis about the positive impact of the health care financing on economic growth – the GDP per capita. The nature of the analysed indices distribution was estimated based on results of Shapiro-Wilk test. So, Pearson or Spearman correlation coefficient was chosen. The statistical significance and strength of the relationship between the indicators of total expenditure for health care, and in particular government financing and compulsory contributory health care financing, voluntary health care financing, and household out-of-pocket payment for health care and the change of GDP per capita were assessed through a correlation analysis. The time lags of achievement the most statistical significance by this relationship was also identified. The results of the research show that the impact of health care financing on the change of economic growth is very high in 12 from 14 investigated EU countries (with lags of 1–3 years) and high in 2 from 14 countries (with a lag of 1 year). The character of this relationship for the most countries (9 from 14 countries) is direct (positive), and for 5 countries it is inverse (negative). The results of the research will be useful during future fundamental and practical research connected with health care financing and its modelling, for scholars and government officials to reform the health care system and its financial mechanism.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document