scholarly journals Prediksi Pendapatan Terbesar pada Penjualan Produk Cat dengan Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
Bias Yulisa Geni ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Sumijan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
Product Demand ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Paint Product ◽  
The Right ◽  
Product Sales

Completing cat products in meeting consumer demand is something that must be addressed. Sales are very important for sales. The amount of demand for goods increases, it will get a large income. The purpose of this study is to predict the sales revenue of paint products at UD. Masdi Related, makes it easy for the leadership of the company to find out the amount of money obtained quickly. This research also makes it easy for companies to take business strategies quickly and optimally. The data used in this research is the data of paint product sales for January 2016 to December 2018 which is processed using the Monte carlo method. Income prediction will be done every year. In addition to predicting revenue, the sales data is also used to predict product demand every year. To predict the sales of paint products using the Monte Carlo method. The results of this study can predict sales revenue of paint products very well. Based on the results of tests conducted on the system used to predict sales revenue of cat products with an average rating of 89%. With a fairly high degree of accuracy, the application of the Monte Carlo method can be estimated to make an estimate of the income and demand for each paint product every year. Necessary, will facilitate the leadership to choose the right business strategy to increase sales of cat product sales.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Advertising

2020 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Beni Mulyana Putra ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Advertising Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
The Right ◽  
High Level

Fulfilling consumer needs is the goal of every business. Owned business capital will affect the readiness to serve consumer demand. The purpose of this study is to predict the level of advertising revenue at Vand Advertising Printing in order to facilitate business owners in preparing business strategies quickly and optimally. This research data is income data from January 2017 to December 2019 which is modeled using the Monte Carlo method. Income level prediction will be carried out annually. Based on the results of the tests that have been done, it is found that the system used to predict the level of advertising revenue with an average accuracy of 90%. The high level of accuracy means that the application of the Monte Carlo method is considered able to predict the level of advertising revenue each year. So that it can make it easier for business owners to choose the right business strategy to increase advertising revenue.

scholarly journals Pemodelan dan Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Meningkatkan Pendapatan Penjualan Peralatan Motor (Studi Kasus : Bengkel AMI Motor)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wita Siska Moza ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Web Based System

AMI Motor shop is a various shop that is engaged in sales by selling various motorcycle equipment. Sales transactions vary in stores, but almost all products have increased and decreased, so it is necessary to know how the product data is related to consumer demand. Sales simulation is an estimate that can provide benefits in making decisions to increase sales revenue. The purpose of this study is to predict what motorcycle equipment stock should be increased and decreased in sales in the following year. The data used is motor equipment sales data in 2018 and 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. In speeding up data processing, this system is applied to a web-based system using the PHP (Hypertext Processor) programming language. Based on the results of testing prediction levels of motorcycle equipment sales, average accuracy is 95,92%, making it easier for company leaders to make decisions on developing business strategies to increase sales revenue.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Produk HPAI

2020 ◽  
pp. 86-91
Author(s):  
Rahmatia Wulan Dari ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Product Sales

Predicting sales is an important aspect of sales development. Sales prediction simulation is an estimate about calculating the level of product sales in a certain period. The research objective was to predict the level of sales of HPAI products at HNI Halal Mart. The data used is sales data for HPAI products from 2017 to 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. Based on the results of testing the prediction of the sales level of HPAI products, an average accuracy of 84,5% is obtained, making it easier in the decision making process and helping in choosing a good business strategy.

scholarly journals Modelling and numerical assessment of a maintenance strategy with stock through piecewise deterministic Markov processes and quasi Monte Carlo methods

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-445
Author(s):  
Jeanne Demgne ◽  
Sophie Mercier ◽  
William Lair ◽  
Jérôme Lonchampt
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Markov Processes ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Quasi Monte Carlo ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes ◽  
The Right

To ensure a power generation level, the French national electricity supply (EDF) has to manage its producing assets by putting in place adapted preventive maintenance strategies. In this article, a fleet of identical components is considered, which are spread out all around France (one per power plant site). The components are assumed to have stochastically independent lifetimes, but they are made functionally dependent through the sharing of a common stock of spare parts. When available, these spare parts are used for both corrective and preventive replacements, with priority to corrective replacements. When the stock is empty, replacements are delayed until the arrival of new spare parts. These spare parts are expensive, and their manufacturing time is long, which makes it necessary to rigorously define their ordering process. The point of the article is to provide the decision maker with the tools to take the right decision (make or not the overhaul). To do that, two indicators are proposed, which are based on an economic variable called the net present value. The net present value stands for the difference between the cumulated discounted cash-flows of the purely corrective policy and the preventive one which including the overhaul. Piecewise deterministic Markov processes are first considered for the joint modelling of the stochastic evolution of the components, stock and ordering process with and without overhaul. The indicators are next expressed with respect to these piecewise deterministic Markov processes, which have to be numerically assessed. Instead of using the most classical Monte Carlo simulations, we here suggest alternate methods based on quasi Monte Carlo simulations, which replace the random uniform numbers of the Monte Carlo method by deterministic sequences called low-discrepancy sequences. The obtained results show a real gain of the quasi Monte Carlo methods in comparison with the Monte Carlo method. The developed tools can hence help the decision maker to take the right decision.

scholarly journals Prediksi Optimal dalam Produksi Bata Merah Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
Hendro Zalmadani ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
High Degree

The availability of red bricks on the market is a problem that must be addressed. Because the availability of red brick affects sales revenue. The purpose of this research in the Small and Medium Micro Business of the Red Brick City of Pariaman is to predict the production of red bricks to find out income and find out the next production. So this research can make it easier for business owners to find out how much it will cost for the next production cost. The data used in this study are production data from 2017 to 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. Based on the results of production prediction testing that has been done, it is found that the average accuracy is 90%. With the results of a high degree of accuracy, the application of the monte carlo method is considered to be able to predict production annually. Making it easier for business owners to determine the costs incurred in the next production process.

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for the Prediction of Behavior of Peptides

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla P. Toropova ◽  
Andrey A. Toropov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Monte Carlo Technique ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Modern Natural

Prediction of physicochemical and biochemical behavior of peptides is an important and attractive task of the modern natural sciences, since these substances have a key role in life processes. The Monte Carlo technique is a possible way to solve the above task. The Monte Carlo method is a tool with different applications relative to the study of peptides: (i) analysis of the 3D configurations (conformers); (ii) establishment of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs); and (iii) development of databases on the biopolymers. Current ideas related to application of the Monte Carlo technique for studying peptides and biopolymers have been discussed in this review.

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