scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of EU Membership on United Kingdom’s Export by Using Gravity Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-16
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

After a year from the formal UK withdrawal from the EU, there are still different opinions about the potential economic impact of Brexit. This paper gives a detailed overview of the trade profile of UK and explores the determinants of United Kingdom`s export. We apply the gravity model to estimate the aggregate benefits of EU membership or the reversed, lost (foregone) benefits from leaving the EU. We measure the influence of GDP, distance, population, the EU membership, and signed free trade agreement with the trading partners on UK’s export as a dependent variable. The analysis includes data for 70 UK trading partners in a period of 48 years (from 1973 to 2020) since Great Britain become EU member. The results show that UK’s export is directly proportional to trade partner’s GDP and inversely proportional to distance. In order to estimate the average benefit due to EU membership, we estimated subsequent equations with different time periods. The coefficient decreases and becomes negative as we shorten the time periods, proving that the average trade advantage due to EU membership diminishes over time. According to the economic theory of regional integration, it is expected that the coefficient increases due to many rounds of enlargement, especially the biggest one in 2004 as well as due to the introduction of the Euro. On the contrary, as we shorten the time periods in the analysis, we obtained increasing coefficient for the variable free trade agreements. This confirms that trade exchange within FTA has significantly higher effect on United Kingdom’s export in comparison with trade within EU.

scholarly journals TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ANTARA INDONESIA DAN NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN-KOREA

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-81
Author(s):  
Tresna Ritaningsih ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Sahara Sahara
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia has several free trade agreements with trading partners that aimed to eliminate tariff and non tariff trade barriers. One of the free trade agreements is ASEAN-Korea FTA. Trade agreement in goods in ASEAN-Korea FTA was agreed since 2007 and now it is entering the implementation phase. The objective of this research is to determine whether the ASEAN-Korea FTA would increase the trade flows between Indonesia and ASEAN-Korea’ countries by analyzing the impact of regional integration on trade creation and trade diversion. This research is utilized balance panel data including 13 countries from 1998-2012. The empirical result shows that all Indonesia's trading sectors experienced decline because of trade diversion and trade creation does not occur. Indonesia's import trading with the non-member countries of ASEAN-Korea is 68% lower than the existing trading. Key word: trade creation, trade diversion, free trade agreement, trade in goods

scholarly journals TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ANTARA INDONESIA DAN NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN-KOREA

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-81
Author(s):  
Tresna Ritaningsih ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Sahara Sahara
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia has several free trade agreements with trading partners that aimed to eliminate tariff and non tariff trade barriers. One of the free trade agreements is ASEAN-Korea FTA. Trade agreement in goods in ASEAN-Korea FTA was agreed since 2007 and now it is entering the implementation phase. The objective of this research is to determine whether the ASEAN-Korea FTA would increase the trade flows between Indonesia and ASEAN-Korea’ countries by analyzing the impact of regional integration on trade creation and trade diversion. This research is utilized balance panel data including 13 countries from 1998-2012. The empirical result shows that all Indonesia's trading sectors experienced decline because of trade diversion and trade creation does not occur. Indonesia's import trading with the non-member countries of ASEAN-Korea is 68% lower than the existing trading. Key word: trade creation, trade diversion, free trade agreement, trade in goods

India’s Trade Potential and Free Trade Agreements: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 20160074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surender Kumar ◽  
Prerna Prabhakar
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyses the role of Free Trade Agreements in determining export and import efficiency levels in India using stochastic frontier version of gravity model. We estimate the impact of selected FTAs of India (its bilateral FTAs, FTA with ASEAN and South Asian FTA) and regulatory quality on the efficiency of exports and imports over the period of 2000–2014. The results indicate that India’s bilateral FTAs and its FTA with the ASEAN group help in improving the export and import efficiency respectively. However, the South Asian Free Trade Agreement is statistically insignificant for India’s export and import efficiency. The results also highlight importance of trading partners’ regulatory quality for enhancing the India’s trade efficiency and note that the impacts of regulatory quality are non-monotonic.

scholarly journals Free Trade Agreement between Turkey and Russian Federation and its Possible Effects to these Countries’ Trade and Taxational Reflections

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raşit Gültekin ◽  
Mustafa Erkan Üyümez
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

The last period of international trade in goods covers a process carried out with globalization and regionalization efforts. Many countries, on the one hand, take part in arrangements that are executed under the leadership by global actors and aim at removing or reducing conventional obstacles to international trade, on the other hand, participate in various and regional economic integrations to provide a more deep and comprehensive economic cooperation and to cope with the competition and trade restrictions which continually increasing due to political, commercial and economical motives. Trade relations between Turkey and Russian Federation is an important element of the two countries' multidimensional cooperation. The most effective attempt to raise the top level of the volume and quality of existing commercial relationships will be the signing and putting into practice of a comprehensive free trade agreements between the two countries that have not been done previously. The purpose of this study is to determine the potential effects of such a free trade agreements between Turkey and Russian Federation in terms of trade in goods between two countries. To this end, in this study, theoretical aspects of free trade agreements' effects and place within regional integration types will be considered the impact of the possible Turkey-Russia free trade agreement will be examined in a framework of basic provisions with customs duties that set out in free trade agreements, recent trade data and key issues related to these countries.

scholarly journals A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (74) ◽  
pp. 391-428
Author(s):  
Medardo Aguirre González ◽  
Claudio Candia Campano ◽  
Lilliam Antón López
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Gravity Model Of Trade

This research aims to find the determining factors of Nicaraguan agricultural exports. To carry out this study, the author formulated a Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and then made an estimation using a version of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) that incorporates a consistent covariance matrix estimator to correct the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation effects. The data considered observations over twenty years and for twelve countries: eight have signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Nicaragua and four have not. The variables that significantly increased the flow of Nicaraguan agricultural exports are the following: Nicaragua’s trading partners’ population, Nicaragua’s Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP pc), the Real Exchange Rate (RER), and Nicaragua’s trading partners’ GDP pc; however, the distance variable turned out to be significantly trade-inhibiting. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) predominantly have significant effects.

scholarly journals COMPETING WORKERS’ RIGHTS TO REPRESENT WORKERS AS VIET NAM JOINS FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS (CPTPP, EVFTA) – A CHALLENGE FROM VIET NAM’S TRADE UNIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-162
Author(s):  
Huu Nguyen Duc
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Viet Nam ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Competitive Economy ◽  
The Eu

Economists expect that CPTPP, together with the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (FTA), will bring enormous economic benefits to Vietnam, by increasing the price competitiveness of Vietnam’s exports in key markets and boosting foreign direct investment (FDI), promoting economic development and creating millions of jobs, including in small and medium-sized enterprises. More importantly, CPTPP will help facilitate domestic reforms in many areas and build an environment for a competitive economy. The purpose of this article is to clarify the impact of free trade agreements on Vietnamese trade unions, which are considered exclusive in representing workers throughout the territory of Viet Nam but will no longer play this role when Viet Nam joins next-generation trade agreements.

The EU-Korea Free Trade Agreement: Making of a "Deep" Free Trade Agreement

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilip K. Das
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Korean Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Korea a dynamic newly-industrialized economy, and the EU, the largest economic block have negotiated an FTA. It came in force on July 1, 2011. Before the FTA was formed, the two were important trading partners of each other. Korea has enjoyed a trade surplus in merchandise trade vis-à-vis the EU. An overwhelmingly large proportion of EU-Korea trade is in manufacturing products. The EU took has had a surplus in trade in services vis-à-vis Korea. The FTA protocol has specified lowering of tariffs and NTBs in a phased manner over a transition period. The FTA had sector-focused negations. Technological standards and environmental considerations are a part of the FTA protocol. It has a comprehensive coverage and in trade economics parlance known as a “deep” regional integration arrangement. The impact of the FTA on the two partner economies would be positive but small. The empirical analyses predictably concluded that of the two, the FTA will benefit Korean economy relatively more in terms of welfare gains, while the EU economy will only gain modestly. An important fact that will influence the welfare gains is that the magnitude of the EU trade with Korea; it is only 2 percent to 2.5 percent of total extra-EU trade. Sectoral impact of the FTA will be important for both the EU and Korea and this article elucidates which sectors will benefit more than others. To protect domestic producers and markets from sudden surge in imports, there is a provision of a bilateral safeguard clause in the FTA.

scholarly journals The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and Vietnam’s Trade Efficiency

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Thang Ngoc Doan
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Volume ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Efficiency Performance ◽  
Stochastic Gravity

This study employs a stochastic gravity model to estimate the efficiency performance of Vietnam’s trade with its main trading partners from 1995-2015. Trade efficiency is measured as the ratio of actual trade volume to the maximum likelihood. Moreover. it analyzes the effects of both natural and man-made trade barriers on trade efficiency. The empirical results suggest that the actual trade of Vietnam appears to be much smaller than a possible efficiency level and that there is large space for further progress. Export efficiency outweighs that of import. Vietnam’s ASEAN Free Trade Agreement membership has, in general, improved the trade efficiency, whereas tariffs and domestic devaluation have impaired it. Our findings lead to the recommendation that Vietnam should join more Free Trade Agreements and break down the man-made barriers.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement on Indonesia’s Trade Balance

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Junaidi
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Impact

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.

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