scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 on The Effect Multiplier on The Household Consumption Function in Jakarta

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahrul Riza ◽  
Michael Christianto Leonardo
Keyword(s):  
National Income ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Permanent Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Permanent Income Hypothesis ◽  
Consumption Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of a decrease in aggregate income, due to activity restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, on household consumption expenditure in Jakarta. The research model is based on the Absolute and Permanent income hypothesis, to see the long-term and short-term effects of changes in income on consumption expenditure. The research method is quantitative by using annual data on consumption expenditure and income at current prices for the period 2003 to 2020. The analysis model uses OLS and ECM regression. The results showed that income has a significant effect on the equation of the short-run and long-run consumption function. The short-term income crisis has an impact on the increase in the multiplier coefficient. In the short term there will also be an adjustment in consumption expenditures, according to what is postulated in the permanent income hypothesis. This indicates that in the short term expansionary fiscal policy is effective in increasing aggregate household consumption expenditure. Further research suggests adding the inflation variable as a proxy for economic conditions. Keywords: Absolute Income Hypothesis, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Household Consumption Expenditures, National Income, Multiplier.

scholarly journals The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Sherif Abdul Rahaman
Keyword(s):  
Arma Model ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Permanent Income ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Permanent Income Hypothesis ◽  
Per Capita

This study aims to test the validity of the PIH for Ghana using aggregate annual data of GDP per capita and household consumption expenditure per capita from 1971 to 2017. The data used were taken from UN statistics. The PIH holds that the income a consumer expects to persist throughout his or her life is what determines their consumption. Earlier studies have shown that the PIH implies the magnitude of the revision in permanent income arising from innovation in the income process is proportional to the magnitude of the revision in consumption arising from the same innovation. This study tests this implication. Innovation in the income process here is the part of the income process that could not be forecasted. The study generates the innovation in the income process by estimating an ARMA model for income and then estimates a consumption equation by OLS using the consumption variable and the generated innovation in income variable.The study finds that the magnitude of the revision in permanent income arising from the innovation in income is larger than the magnitude of the revision in consumption resulting from the same innovation. This implies consumption response to changes in income is smaller than what the PIH predicts. This result is taken as evidence that the PIH does not hold for Ghana.

Nonfarm diversification and the well-being of rural farm households in developing countries: Evidence from Ghana using new dataset

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-229
Author(s):  
Bernardin Senadza ◽  
Edward Nketiah-Amponsah ◽  
Samuel Ampaw
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Farm Households ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Rural Ghana ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper examines the impact of participation in both farm and nonfarm activities on both household consumption expenditure per adult equivalent and household per capita income, in rural Ghana. The objective is to ascertain whether the results are sensitive to the choice of well-being measure. We use a nationally representative dataset on 8,059 rural farm households collected in 2012/13. In order to account for potential selectivity and endogeneity biases, which previous studies failed to correct for, we adopt the endogenous switching regression (ESR) estimation technique. We find diversified households to be systematically different from their undiversified counterparts in terms of socioeconomic and demographic centeracteristics, thus justifying the empirical method used. Our results indicate a higher observed mean consumption for the diversified sub-sample compared to its counterfactual, implying that households participating in nonfarm enterprise activities in addition to farming have greater mean consumption compared to households engaged solely in farming. Similar conclusions are reached when income instead is used as the well-being indicator. Our findings, thus, indicate that the well-being implication of farm-nonfarm diversification is insensitive to the choice of well-being measure.

scholarly journals OS MICROFUNDAMENTOS DO CONSUMO: DE KEYNES ATÉ A VERSÃO MODERNA DA TEORIA DA RENDA PERMANENTE

2003 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavia Dias Rangel Oreiro
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Function Theory ◽  
Permanent Income ◽  
Permanent Income Hypothesis ◽  
Consumption Function ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Milton Friedman ◽  
Consumption Decision

Este artigo pretende analisar a evolução recente das teorias de consumo, enfatizando os micro-fundamentos do consumo, desde Keynes (1936) até a versão moderna da teoria da renda permanente de Hall- Flavin (1978-1981), bem como inserir o comportamento do consumidor numa ótica intertemporal. Nesse contexto, são discutidas: a teoria de consumo de John Maynard Keynes (1936); os fatos estilizados de Simon Kuznets (1940); a contribuição de Irving Fisher à teoria de consumo ao propor o modelo intertemporal básico de comportamento do consumidor; a teoria da renda permanente de Milton Friedman (1957) e a teoria do ciclo da vida de Franco Modigliani (1963), as quais se baseiam no arcabouço teórico de Fisher para explicar o “enigma do consumo”; e finalmente, a chamada “versão moderna da teoria da renda permanente” de Hall - Flavin (1978-81), que aplica o método de expectativas racionais aos modelos ciclo-da vida/ renda permanente. Abstract The objective of the present article is to analyze the recent evolution of the theories of the consumption function, with a special emphasis over the micro foundations of the consumption decision, since Keynes (1936) until the modern version of the permanent income hypothesis of Hall and Flavin (1978-1981). In this setting we will discuss the following issues: the consumption function theory of John Maynard Keynes, the stylized facts of Kusnets, the Irving Fisher contribution to the consumption function theory by his proposal of an intertemporal framework to analyze consumer behavior; Milton Friedman´s theory of permanent income and Modigliani´s life-cycle hypothesis. All these theories are based upon Irving Fisher framework to explain the “consumption enigma”. Finally we will analyze the Hall-Flavin version of the permanent income hypothesis, which applies the rational expectations method to the models of aggregate consumption based on the life-cycle/permanent income hypothesis.

scholarly journals THE impact of remittance inflows on poverty in Botswana: an ARDL approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercy. T. Musakwa ◽  
N. M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe growing pressure on governments to reduce poverty among other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through harnessing domestic and foreign sources has motivated studies on the relationship between poverty and different economic variables in many developing countries. This study investigates the impact of remittance on poverty in Botswana, employing time-series data from 1980 to 2017. The study employs two poverty proxies—household consumption expenditure and infant mortality rate to capture poverty in its multidimensional form and improve the robustness of the results. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study finds that remittance inflows reduce poverty in Botswana—both in the short run and in the long run when infant mortality rate is used as a proxy. However, when poverty is measured by household consumption expenditure, remittance was found to have no impact on poverty in the short run and in the long run. The study, therefore, concludes that remittance inflows play a crucial role in reducing poverty and that Botswana can benefit immensely from the surge in remittance inflows by putting in place policies and structures that support remittance inflow.

Labor Market Transition and the Impact of Education on Real Per Capita Household Consumption Expenditure in Vietnam

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-108
Author(s):  
Hoang Van Kinh ◽  
Daniel Westbrook
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Substantial Part ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Market Activity ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Labor Market Activity

The degree to which the impact of schooling on real per capita household consumption expenditure (rpce) depends on the intensity of local labor market activity was estimated and changes in that relationship during a substantial part of Vietnam’s transition period (1993–2004 were documented). Key variables in the analysis are the years of schooling attained by the best-educated member of each household, an index of labor market activity at the commune level, and the interaction between the two. As schooling is likely to be endogenous, average educational attainment of others in the same age, gender, and commune cohort was used as an instrumental variable (IV). The estimated impact of educational attainment on rpce is economically substantial, statistically significant, increasing over time, and is powerfully enhanced by increasing labor market activity.

scholarly journals The impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam: An empirical investigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-49
Author(s):  
Mercy T. Musakwa ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo ◽  
Sheilla Nyasha
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Poverty Measure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The study was motivated by the need to establish if burgeoning foreign capital inflows in Vietnam can support the poverty alleviation agenda. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt were used as proxies for foreign capital inflows; and infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI) and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study found foreign direct investment to reduce poverty in the short run and long run when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure. However, the study found FDI to worsen poverty in the short run when infant mortality rate and HDI were used as poverty proxies. The study found external debt to have poverty mitigating effect in the short run regardless of the poverty measure used and in the long run only when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Viability of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Recovery of Household Consumption Expenditures Because of the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahrul Riza ◽  
William Wiriyanata
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The Covid-19 outbreak disrupted economic activity in almost all countries. The Indonesian economy entered a recession phase as a result of the continued contraction in economic growth in the second and third quarters of 2020. According to Keynesian economic theory, the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy was more effective in recovering the economy from the crisis, this study aims to measure the effect of government spending, money supply, inflation and interest rates on aggregate household consumption expenditure. This study used a quantitative method, using monthly time series data from January 2015 to December 2020. The data were analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that government spending has a negative impact on household aggregate expenditure in the long run meanwhile interest rate has a positive impact on household consumption expenditure. Inflation do not affect aggregate household consumption expenditure, both in the short and long term. The results of the analysis are useful for evaluating the policies taken by the government to overcome the economic crisis due to the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak. The government increases aggregate expenditure to cover the decline in household aggregate consumption expenditure due to a decrease in household real income. Then expansionary monetary policy in the long run will increase aggregate demand. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance together with Bank Indonesia needs to design other policies that will have a positive impact on economic recovery in the short term. This study has not included other macro indicators that affect household consumption expenditures such as unemployment, taxes and the household marginal propensity to saving (MPS). Keywords: Household Aggregate Expenditure; Government Expenditure; Inflation; VECM

scholarly journals ANALISIS KONSUMSI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1989 - 2002 (TINJAUAN TERHADAP HIPOTESIS KEYNES DAN POST KEYNES)

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
Isyani Isyani ◽  
Maulidyah Indira Hasmarini
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
National Income ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Stock Investment ◽  
Research Period

Consumption expenditure of Indonesian society encompasses 60 percent until 70 percent from GNP in Indonesia. Based on Post Keynes and Keynes hypothesis, the research investigated consumption pattern of Indonesian society by partial adjustment method of regression. By this regression method, balance adjustment model in long and short term can be estimated. Research period used is from 1989 until 2002 with the quarterly data. Variables which supposed influencing consumption of society and they are used in model in addition to national income are real interest rate, stock investment, money in circulation, and income tax. The result of this research showed that MPC is 0,8337, therefore it needs doing the effort to decrease MPC or at least to keep the value.

scholarly journals Considerations Concerning the Impact of Propensities on Basic Macroeconomic Occurrences

2008 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Doszyń
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
National Income ◽  
General Definition ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Considerations Concerning the Impact of Propensities on Basic Macroeconomic Occurrences In the article theoretical deliberations relating to impact of propensities on basic macroeconomic phenomena were presented. A general definition of propensity was discussed. The influence of propensity for consumption, propensity for investment and propensity for thesaurization on national income, interest rates, consumption expenditures, investments and money supply was analyzed. Derivatives that make it possible to identify quantitative effects of propensities were introduced. On the basis of the discussed Keynesian model it is possible to say that the propensity to consume increases interest rate and national income, the propensity to invest makes investments, national income and interest rates higher and the propensity for thesaurization could increase interest rates by lowering money supply.

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