Adaptation following errors: Error awareness predicts future performance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gezelle Dali ◽  
Robert Hester
Keyword(s):  
Error Awareness ◽  
Future Performance

Tax-Advantaged Trust Use Among IPO Executives: Determinants and Implications for Valuation and Future Performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Dambra ◽  
Matthew Gustafson ◽  
Phillip J. Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
The Public ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Estate Taxes ◽  
Price Appreciation ◽  
One Year ◽  
Jel Classifications

ABSTRACT We examine the prevalence and determinants of CEOs' use of tax-advantaged trusts prior to their firm's IPO. Twenty-three percent of CEOs use tax-advantaged pre-IPO trusts, and share transfers into tax-advantaged trusts are positively associated with CEO equity wealth, estate taxes, and dynastic preferences. We project that pre-IPO trust use increases CEOs' dynastic wealth by approximately $830,000, on average. We next examine a simple model's prediction that trust use will be positively related to IPO-period stock price appreciation. We find that trust use is associated with 12 percent higher one-year post-IPO returns, but is not significantly related to the IPO's valuation, filing price revision, or underpricing. This evidence is consistent with CEOs' personal finance decisions prior to the IPO containing value-relevant information that is not immediately incorporated into market prices. JEL Classifications: D14; G12; G32; M21; M41. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

The Rewards for Meeting or Beating Managers' Own Earnings Guidance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Wai Hui ◽  
Alfred Z. Liu ◽  
Yao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Return ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Guidance ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Earnings Expectations ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Management Guidance ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Management Earnings Guidance ◽  
Analyst Earnings

This study documents a stock return premium for meeting or beating management's own earnings guidance (MBMG) that is separate and distinct from the premium for meeting or beating analysts' earnings forecasts (MBAF) documented in prior literature. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the MBMG premium relative to the MBAF premium increases when management guidance is more informative. We also find that MBMG is incrementally informative about a firm's future performance after considering MBAF. Our findings suggest that investors consider management earnings guidance to be a performance threshold in addition to analyst earnings forecasts when forming earnings expectations.

scholarly journals Surprising Drought Tolerance of Fir (Abies) Species between Past Climatic Adaptation and Future Projections Reveals New Chances for Adaptive Forest Management

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 821
Author(s):  
Csaba Mátyás ◽  
František Beran ◽  
Jaroslav Dostál ◽  
Jiří Čáp ◽  
Martin Fulín ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
Drought Tolerance ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Species Differentiation ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Moisture Deficit ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Unique Potential

Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results revealed the high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios are insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves’ climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Besides silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100 mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual inventory assessments, considering also the resilience of populations. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests.

scholarly journals 45 A permutation test for validation of genomic estimated breeding values

2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. 8-9
Author(s):  
Zahra Karimi ◽  
Brian Sullivan ◽  
Mohsen Jafarikia
Keyword(s):  
Permutation Test ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Type I ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Small Data Sets ◽  
Estimated Breeding Value ◽  
Estimated Breeding Values ◽  
Top 40

Abstract Previous studies have shown that the accuracy of Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) as a predictor of future performance is higher than the traditional Estimated Breeding Value (EBV). The purpose of this study was to estimate the potential advantage of selection on GEBV for litter size (LS) compared to selection on EBV in the Canadian swine dam line breeds. The study included 236 Landrace and 210 Yorkshire gilts born in 2017 which had their first farrowing after 2017. GEBV and EBV for LS were calculated with data that was available at the end of 2017 (GEBV2017 and EBV2017, respectively). De-regressed EBV for LS in July 2019 (dEBV2019) was used as an adjusted phenotype. The average dEBV2019 for the top 40% of sows based on GEBV2017 was compared to the average dEBV2019 for the top 40% of sows based on EBV2017. The standard error of the estimated difference for each breed was estimated by comparing the average dEBV2019 for repeated random samples of two sets of 40% of the gilts. In comparison to the top 40% ranked based on EBV2017, ranking based on GEBV2017 resulted in an extra 0.45 (±0.29) and 0.37 (±0.25) piglets born per litter in Landrace and Yorkshire replacement gilts, respectively. The estimated Type I errors of the GEBV2017 gain over EBV2017 were 6% and 7% in Landrace and Yorkshire, respectively. Considering selection of both replacement boars and replacement gilts using GEBV instead of EBV can translate into increased annual genetic gain of 0.3 extra piglets per litter, which would more than double the rate of gain observed from typical EBV based selection. The permutation test for validation used in this study appears effective with relatively small data sets and could be applied to other traits, other species and other prediction methods.

To err is system; a comparison of methodologies for the investigation of adverse outcomes in healthcare

2021 ◽  
pp. 251604352199026
Author(s):  
Peter Isherwood ◽  
Patrick Waterson
Keyword(s):  
Patient Safety ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Healthcare Delivery ◽  
Healthcare Providers ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
System Level ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
System A ◽  
Regulatory Bodies

Patient safety, staff moral and system performance are at the heart of healthcare delivery. Investigation of adverse outcomes is one strategy that enables organisations to learn and improve. Healthcare is now understood as a complex, possibly the most complex, socio-technological system. Despite this the use of a 20th century linear investigation model is still recommended for the investigation of adverse outcomes. In this review the authors use data gathered from the investigation of a real life healthcare near incident and apply three different methodologies to the analysis of this data. They compare both the methodologies themselves and the outputs generated. This illustrates how different methodologies generate different system level recommendations. The authors conclude that system based models generate the strongest barriers to improve future performance. Healthcare providers and their regulatory bodies need to embrace system based methodologies if they are to effectively learn from, and reduce future, adverse outcomes.

scholarly journals Window dressing in the Active Share scores in publicly reported portfolios

2021 ◽  
pp. 234094442110246
Author(s):  
Laura Andreu ◽  
Carlos Forner ◽  
José Luis Sarto
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Window Dressing ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Money Flows

Using a unique database that includes publicly disclosed fund holdings at the end of the quarter as well as the holdings in all non-publicly disclosed months, we found that some funds could alter their portfolios in publicly disclosed months to artificially increase their Active Share scores and consequently appear more active and take advantage of the positive relationship between Active Share and money flows. We show how, consistent with non-informed trades, these funds erode their future performance. However, these funds reach their objective of increasing future money flows. Moreover, we find that window-dresser funds can be identified by controlling the level of tracking error. The funds with high Active Share scores and low tracking errors have the highest levels of Active Share window dressing and the worst future returns. However, compared with less active funds, they are able to capture higher money flows. JEL CLASSIFICATION G23; G11

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