DATA LIMITED STOCK ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION DYNAMICS BY CMSY MODEL ON THE EXAMPLE OF BLACK SEA SPRAT IN THE RUSSIAN WATERS

Fisheries ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (3) ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
M. Pyatinsky
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Cohort Model ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Russian Waters

This study performs approbation of trend CMSY model on the example of Black sea sprat fishing unit, localized in Russian waters. Data sources has been reduced to the level of data limited modeling for indicator and trend models approach. CMSY population model results were compared with previously performed estimations by more powerful cohort model - XSA. CMSY results shows no significant deviations from the XSA results. Forecast scenarios and conclusions based on CMSY model fitting leads to the same statements with previously published results by XSA. CMSY model shows next results: stock biomass in 2019 B2019 = 63,9 ths. t, fishing mortality – F2019 = 0,29. Stock biomass in 2019 was significant below the target reference point BMSY = 105 ths. t and higher then limit reference point Blim = 52,7 ths. t. Some uncertain overexploitation in 2019 was underlined, F2019/FMSY = 1,12. Investigation of forecast scenarios with different total allowed catch levels indicates that there are no features for increasing the catch capacity in short-term projection. CMSY model fitting have passed the necessary stability tests and confirm previously founded results. In summary of this study, we can recommend to use CMSY model for stock assessment procedure in terms of data-limited information background.

scholarly journals PRELIMINARY STOCK ASSESSMENT RESULTS FOR SHAD IN AZOV-BLACK SEA BASIN IN TERMS OF DATA LUCKING (2007–2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 34-39
Author(s):  
I.D. Kozobrod ◽  
◽  
M.M. Piatinski
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Safe Zone ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Azov Sea ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Stock Recovery ◽  
Assessment Results

Black-azov sea shad Alosa immaculate (Bennett, 1835) stock assessment performed by trending model CMSY in terms of data lucking for period 2007–2020 in R. Model results showed current stock status in biological safe zone (B2020 = 2291 t, BMSY = 1855 t, B2020/BMSY = 1,23) with signs of minor overexploitation by fishing mortality (F2020 = 0,35, FMSY = 0,28, F2020/FMSY = 1,25). Obtained stock biomass estimates shows minor Black-Azov sea shad stock recovery evidence in period 2007–2020. Evidence of light population fishery overexploitation after 2018 are found, perhaps, was caused by IUU-fishery. Paper results underline to eliminate and regulate shad illegal, unreported, unregistered fishery in Azov-Black sea basin

scholarly journals Biased stock assessment when using multiple, hardly overlapping, tuning series if fishing trends vary spatially

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (10) ◽  
pp. 2272-2277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah B. M. Kraak ◽  
Niels Daan ◽  
Martin A. Pastoors
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Age Model ◽  
Biased Perception

Abstract Kraak, S. B. M., Daan, N., and Pastoors, M. A. 2009. Biased stock assessment when using multiple, hardly overlapping, tuning series if fishing trends vary spatially. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 2272–2277. Fishing-effort distributions are subject to change, for autonomous reasons and in response to management regulations. Ignoring such changes in a stock-assessment procedure may lead to a biased perception. We simulated a stock distributed over two regions with inter-regional migration and different trends in exploitation and tested the performance of extended survivors analysis (XSA) and a statistical catch-at-age model in terms of bias, when spatially restricted tuning series were applied. If we used a single tuning index that covered only the more heavily fished region, estimates of fishing mortality and spawning-stock biomass were seriously biased. If two tuning series each exclusively covering one region were used (without overlap but together covering the whole area), estimates were also biased. Surprisingly, a moderate degree of overlap of spatial coverage of the two tuning indices was sufficient to reduce bias of the XSA assessment substantially. However, performance was best when one tuning series covered the entire stock area.

scholarly journals STOCK ASSESSMENT AND LONG-TERM DYNAMICS OF AZOV SEA ROACH (RUSSIAN WATERS), BASED ON CMSY MODEL FOR DATA-LIMITED MODELLING IN PERIOD (1999-2019)

Fisheries ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (6) ◽  
pp. 88-94
Author(s):  
Nikolay Zherdev ◽  
M. Pyatinsky ◽  
Inna Kozobrod
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Rutilus Rutilus ◽  
Roach Rutilus Rutilus ◽  
Surplus Production ◽  
Azov Sea ◽  
Production Models ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Russian Waters

Stock assessment of Azov sea roach Rutilus rutilus (Linnaeus, 1758) has been performed by CMSY model in period 1999-2019 by data-limited modelling in R. The current population status – in biological safe zone for stock biomass and no overfishing signals (B2019/BMSY = 1,32, F2019/FMSY = 0,53). Perhaps, current paper results can be a slightly incomplete in background that there is no relevant data about IUU fishery ever exists, which can lead to fishing mortality underestimation. Azov sea roach population continue to be in “depleted” status after river flow regulation in 1950’s. Joined continuous biomass estimates time series over whole fishing his-tory 1932–2019 showed at least 2 population collapses: in 1940’s and 1980’s years. According to model re-sults TAC (total allowed catch) should be accepted at level 516.9 t. If the recommendation is followed stock biomass will stay at safety in level 1828.1 t. Data limited modelling shows a good performance for sea roach in background of data lucking and in this reason still the best choose against cohor or surplus production models.

Incorporating environmental variability in stock assessment: predicting recruitment, spawner biomass, and landings of sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Baltic Sea

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (7) ◽  
pp. 1334-1341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian R. MacKenzie ◽  
Jan Horbowy ◽  
Fritz W. Köster
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Sprattus Sprattus ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
The Baltic

Temperature has a significant positive impact on recruitment of sprat, Sprattus sprattus, in the Baltic Sea. Here we evaluate whether an existing recruitment model for the year classes 1973–1999 can forecast recruitment for five new year classes. The coefficient of variation (CV) of predictions was 5%, and four of five new year classes were within 95% confidence limits of predictions made by the earlier model. We then assimilated climatic, oceanographic, and recruitment linkages and their uncertainty into the standard International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) assessment procedure to predict key advisory-related variables such as spawning stock biomass (SSB) and landings. These linkages enable a forecast of recruitment earlier than the annual assessment meeting. Forecasts made using the North Atlantic Oscillation to predict the 2006 year class showed that spawner biomass would be 15% lower than spawner biomass calculated using the ICES standard methodology. The difference in perception of future biomass does not affect the advice for the stock because the spawning stock biomass is greater than the critical biomass limit (SSB > BPA). However, when this is not the case or when it is desirable to broaden the ecosystem basis for fisheries management, incorporation of knowledge of recruitment processes may be beneficial.

SHORT-TERM DYNAMICS OF THE ANAPA BAY-BAR SHORELINE

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Krylenko ◽  
Marina Krylenko ◽  
Alexandr Aleynikov ◽  
Alexandr Aleynikov ◽  
Viacheslav Krylenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Northwestern Part ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Shoreline Position ◽  
Local Dynamics ◽  
Average Displacement ◽  
Local Erosion

The Anapa bay-bar is located in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. With the goal in mind to determine the short-term dynamics of the Anapa bay-bar we analyzed satellite images from 2003 to the present. Depending on the hydro-lithodynamical situation the shoreline configuration during storm can vary from a rectilinear to sinusoidal forms. There are regions of local erosion or accumulation whose formation is related to the alongshore motion of sediments and dynamics of underwater bars. Comparison of the data on 1965 and 1966 showed that in this period the amplitude of the shoreline position was more than 20 m but average displacement of the shoreline for 13 months was only 0.8 m. This study showed that for the analysis of changes in the shoreline position is necessary to consider the configuration of the coastline at the time of each observation and the local dynamics.

SPECIALIZED OCEANOGRAPHIC DATABASE FOR INFORMATION SUPPORT OF THE BLACK SEA COASTAL ZONE STUDY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Khaliulin ◽  
Alexey Khaliulin ◽  
Andrey Ingerov ◽  
Andrey Ingerov ◽  
Elena Zhuk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
Information Support ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Marine Hydrophysical Institute ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Oceanographic Data

The information resources of the Federal State Budget Scientific Institution “Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS” (FSBSI MHI) oceanographic data bank (MHI BOD), which contains about 115,000 oceanographic and more than 27,000 hydrochemical stations accomplished in the Black Sea coastal zone, as well as experience accumulated while providing information support of the coastal zone research, main directions of activities, and short-term plans are considered.

scholarly journals Effect of Non-Thermal Atmospheric Plasma on Micro-Tensile Bond Strength at Adhesive/Dentin Interface: A Systematic Review

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1026
Author(s):  
Mohamed M. Awad ◽  
Feras Alhalabi ◽  
Abdullah Alshehri ◽  
Zaid Aljeaidi ◽  
Ali Alrahlah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Bond Strength ◽  
Atmospheric Plasma ◽  
Tensile Bond Strength ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Etch And Rinse ◽  
Medium Risk

Objective: The objective of this review was to evaluate the effect of non-thermal atmospheric plasma (NTAP) on adhesives resin–dentin micro-tensile bond strength (μTBS) in previously published studies. Methods: Electronic search was conducted using the Medline, Cochrane library, and Scopus databases. The included studies were laboratory studies that investigated the effect of NTAP on adhesives μTBS to coronal dentin. Studies that evaluated the effect of NTAP on bond strength to indirect substrates, enamel or root dentin, were excluded. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed. Results: Thirteen studies were included in this systematic review. All the included studies were considered to have a medium risk of bias. NTAP significantly improved μTBS at 24 h or after short-term aging in five studies (38.5%) and both immediate and after long-term aging in 5 studies (38.5%). In two studies (15.4%), NTAP resulted in a short-term material-dependent effect that was not stable after long-term aging. Interestingly, in one study (7.7%), NTAP had a positive effect only in the etch-and-rinse (ER) mode after long-term aging. Conclusion: Within the limitations of this systematic review, NTAP application could enhance resin–dentin μTBS of ER adhesives or universal adhesives (UAs) applied in the ER mode. In the ER mode, the rewetting step after NTAP seems to be unnecessary. Because of the limited information currently available in the literature, further studies are required to evaluate the effect of the NTAP application on self-etch (SE) adhesives or UAs applied in the SE mode.

scholarly journals Short-term movement patterns, population estimates and breeding biology of an island endemic bird, the Tristan Thrush

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 245-252
Author(s):  
Peter G. Ryan ◽  
Ben J. Dilley ◽  
Delia Davies ◽  
Trevor Glass ◽  
Fitsum Abadi
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Main Island ◽  
Island Endemic ◽  
Core Study ◽  
Land Bird

AbstractThe Tristan Thrush Turdus eremita is the only land bird that survived human colonisation of the main island of Tristan da Cunha and is listed as “Near Threatened”. Population estimates are confounded by the thrushes’ inquisitive and gregarious nature as well as limited information on their movements. We report the first measures of nest densities on Nightingale Island: 6 nests·ha-1 in Phylica arborea woodland and 4–5 nests·ha-1 in tussock habitat, which suggests that the population is approximately double the previous estimate. At Inaccessible Island, we individually color ringed 110 thrushes over two months to track their short-term movements and estimate the local population size. Individuals moved up to 950 m along the coast, but 96% of resightings were < 100 m. A Bayesian data augmentation approach estimated that some 260 thrushes visited the core study area, a 200-m stretch of cobble and boulder beach where birds come to drink, bathe and forage. This result suggests that the population on Inaccessible Island also is substantially larger than reported previously. We estimate the total population to be 8000–15,000 Tristan Thrushes. The main need is a population estimate for the nominate subspecies on the main island of Tristan.

Influence of Currents and Atmospheric Circulation on the Efficiency of European Anchovy Fishing during its Wintering off the Black Sea Coast of the Krasnodar Territory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Panov ◽  
E. O. Spiridonova ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Short Term ◽  
European Anchovy ◽  
The North ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Black Sea Coast ◽  
Sea Coast

Russian fishermen harvest European anchovy primarily off the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Territory during its wintering and wintering migrations. At wintering grounds, temperature conditions become a secondary factor in determining the behaviour of commercial concentration of European anchovy, with wind and currents being the primary factors. Therefore, the aim of this work is to determine the potential use of daily data on water circulation and local atmospheric transport in short-term (1–7 days) forecasting of European anchovy fishing in the Black Sea. The research used the European anchovy fishery monitoring materials for January – March 2019, as well as daily maps of the Black and Azov Seas level anomalies (from satellite altimetry data) and surface atmospheric pressure and temperature in Europe (analysis) for the mentioned period. The dynamics of the catch rate and its relation to altimetry and atmospheric transport indicators in the north-eastern part of the Black Sea were investigated using graphical and correlation methods. This analysis showed that the main factor contributing to increased catches is intensification of northwest currents in the coastal 60-km zone. The effect of atmospheric transport on fishing efficiency depends on the mesoscale eddy structure of the nearshore current field. In the presence of an intense northwest current in the fishing area, southwest atmospheric transports have a positive effect on fishing, while in the presence of an anticyclonic meander of currents, northeast atmospheric transports become effective. The presence of maximum significant relationships when the determinants of fishing performance are shifted by 1–7 days allows making short-term predictions of fishing efficiency.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document