scholarly journals Housing price volatility and timing of housing supply in pre-sale market

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Kyu Hyun Ji
Keyword(s):  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Housing Supply

International Real Estate Review

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-428
Author(s):  
Charles Leung ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Supply Elasticity ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Housing Supply Elasticity

Housing prices in Hong Kong have gained international attention. This study suggests that the housing supply may be insufficient. Consistent with previous studies, we confirm that merely increasing the land supply may not increase the housing supply. We also find preliminary evidence for widening income inequality, which, when combined with unavailability, can lead to unaffordability in the housing market. Given the current housing supply elasticity with respect to price, Hong Kong is not more volatile than major cities in the United States. Thus, by improving housing availability and thereby increasing housing supply elasticity, this could effectively decrease housing price volatility.

Housing supply and its relationships with land supply

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guowei Gu ◽  
Lynne Michael ◽  
Yapeng Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Land Supply ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the determinants of housing supply and the relationships between land supply and housing supply in terms of quantity and time in Shanghai, China. Design/methodology/approach – Official statistical and property registration data[] from Shanghai are used to carry out multiple linear regression analysis. Findings – The authors find that land supply affects housing supply with a three-year time lag. Both construction cost and housing price impact supply with a one-year time delay. The construction cost elasticities range from 0.74 to 1.51, while housing price elasticity is 2. The authors also find that plot ratio may play more important role in the developer’s first housing sale than either plot area or sales price. An average time period from obtaining the land for residential development until marketing the product is established at 36.8 months. Research limitations/implications – Only ordinary least squares method is applied in this analysis and the property portal on which this research relies is still at an early stage. Originality/value – This research contributes to a wider understanding of issues surrounding housing supply in the local markets within China and provides the foundation for local government to better manage supply.

Determinants of housing price volatility in Canada: a dynamic analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (27) ◽  
pp. 3521-3531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belayet Hossain ◽  
Ehsan Latif
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility

Research on the Long-Term Memory of Commodity Housing Price Volatility Based on the FIGARCH Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 1079-1080 ◽  
pp. 1194-1198
Author(s):  
Feng Lan ◽  
Bao Hua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
Figarch Model ◽  
And Control

The purpose of this paper is to test whether there exists a long-term memory volatility characteristics of housing price. The paper based on the data ranging of Zhengzhou from January 2004 to May 2014, by adopting the FIGARCH model, empirically studies and analysis this characteristics. The research results indicate that the price fluctuation of Zhengzhou commodity homes exist effect of cluster and long-term memory characteristic. FIGARCH model can capture the long memory well, and can predict the future price of commodity residential house for a period of time .Therefore, FIGARCH model can well catch long-term memory and forecast the commodity housing price in the future period of time, which illustrates that external shocks have long-standing impact on the volatility of commodity housing price as well, reaching the conclusion that long-effect Mechanism of regulation and control should be set and developed during the macro-control of the government.

Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects

2002 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Dolde ◽  
Dogan Tirtiroglu
Keyword(s):  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-219
Author(s):  
Haiwei Chen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nonparametric Tests ◽  
Property Taxes ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Tax Regimes ◽  
Mortgage Rates

Both parametric and nonparametric tests show that housing price volatility is lower in states that impose a real estate transfer tax on transaction values than those that impose no such tax in the United States. However, regression analyses show no difference in price volatility between the two tax regimes, after controlling for known economic and demographic factors, such as income, population growth, mortgage rates, property taxes, and jobless rates. Such a conclusion is robust because the fixed effect and the two-way clustering models are used to account for irregularities in the error structures.

scholarly journals The effects of tourism on housing prices: applying a difference-in-differences methodology to the Portuguese market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
António Manuel Cunha ◽  
Júlio Lobão
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regression ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Increases

Purpose This paper aims to explore the effects of a surge in tourism short-term rentals (STR) on housing prices in municipalities within Portugal’s two largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology by using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator in a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) equation model. Findings The results show that the liberalization of STR had a significant impact on housing prices in municipalities where a higher percentage of housing was transferred to tourism. This transfer led to a leftward shift in the housing supply and a consequent increase in housing prices. These price increases are much higher than those found in previous studies on the same subject. The authors also found that municipalities with more STR had low housing elasticities, which indicates that adjustments to the transfer of real estate from housing to tourism were made by increasing house prices, and not by increasing supply quantities. Practical implications The study suggests that an unforeseen consequence of allowing property owners to transfer the use of real estate from housing to other services (namely, tourism) was extreme housing price increases due to inelastic housing supply. Originality/value This is the first time that the DiD methodology has been applied in real estate markets using FGLS in a SUR equation model and the authors show that it produces more precise estimates than the baseline OLS FE. The authors also find evidence of a supply shock provoked by STR.

scholarly journals Housing Price and Population Growth across China: The Role of Housing Supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-228
Author(s):  
Hongbo Wang ◽  
Dan Rickman
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Spatial Equilibrium ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Regional Population ◽  
Autonomous Regions

In this article, we employ a spatial equilibrium growth model to empirically examine the role of housing supply growth in differences in housing price and population growth across the provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and major cities of mainland China for 2002–2015. Areas in the East, particularly Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Xiamen, are found to have had the least growth in housing supply, while autonomous regions and areas in the Southwest and Northeast had the most. The differences in housing supply growth are shown not only to have greatly influenced relative housing price growth, but they also greatly influenced relative regional population growth, suggesting that land and housing supply policies are a critical component of regional growth in China.

Reconsidering the Housing Asset-Based Welfare Approach: Reflection from East Asian Experiences

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Misa Izuhara
Keyword(s):  
Family Support ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Wealth Accumulation ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Goods And Services

Housing is a platform of wealth accumulation in many home-owning societies. Ownership of assets often contributes to help people build social capital, influence their social participation and helps them access increasingly privatised goods and services. Such ‘asset-based welfare’ has been fashionable in Western academic circles, considering the ways in which housing could become a real or potential welfare resource. It may not, however, be such a novel idea from an East Asian perspective since the promotion of home ownership has always been embedded in the wider context of welfare provision in many parts of the region. Despite the argument that an increasing level of home ownership could potentially compensate for the erosion of family support, the sustainability of a home-ownership-based welfare approach has been questioned. At the forefront of ‘post-growth’ societies with societal ageing, recession, housing price volatility and neoliberal policy reforms, using Japan as a case study, this article examines the reasons and conditions behind the lack of success in commonly identified strategies of asset-based welfare in a regional context. The policy-driven market failures which supersede the cultural obstacles require re-examination.

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