scholarly journals ABOUT METHODS OF THE SUBSTANTIATION OF AN ALLOWABLE RISK LEVEL

2000 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-65
Author(s):  
Anatoly V. Perelmuter
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
Actual Risk ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Public Reaction ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The problem of admissible risk optimisation is described in detail, especially for the case of possible human victims. Different points of view on the problem of «human being cost» are compared, and the approach based on comparing the numbers of saved lives and the risk for the persons, providing the life saving are considered. An information on actual risk level for different kinds of human activities is presented. The mathematical model of creating the public opinion in case of accidents and analysis of changing the function of society discomposibility function in time are presented. Effects commonly ignored during risk estimation are analysed—like departure from the principle of equal providing the risks for objects of equal responsibility, but different quantity and presence of non-linear dependence between the severity of accidents and public reaction.

scholarly journals Experience in modeling a comfortable environment in the transport compartment

2020 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 01019
Author(s):  
Vladimir Pankratov ◽  
Alexey Golikov ◽  
Elena Pankratova ◽  
Marina Barulina ◽  
Sofiya Galkina
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Thermal Processes ◽  
Passenger Compartment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Actual Operating ◽  
Specific Proposal ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The theoretical base was developed and the mathematical model of dynamic thermal processes in a compartment of public transport was constructed. The software which is realized the constructed mathematical model was developed. The mathematical model provides for the possibility of taking into account the most possible environmental conditions which can have place in the actual operating conditions of a transport even the angle of illumination - the current temperature of the external environment, the presence of solar radiation taking into account the angle of sun’s illumination, and the temperature of the roadway. The software allows calculation and visualization non –stationary temperature fields in the public transport’s compartments using the example of a trolley bus. For a specific trolley bus design, a series of experiments to calculate the comfortable temperature for passengers were conducted, These experiments are showed the performance of the constructed model and allowed to formulate a specific proposal for improving the thermoregulation system of the trolleybus’ passenger compartment.

scholarly journals Passage of a vehicle over a standard obstacle

2020 ◽  
Vol 313 ◽  
pp. 00012
Author(s):  
Darina Stachová
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Critical Condition ◽  
Point Contact ◽  
Hazardous Materials ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Profile ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Traffic safety depends on vehicle quality, traffic density and road conditions. Motion of a vehicle on a road or bridge body is therefore interesting from many points of view for various experts. We draw our attention to the unevenness of the road, specifically to the road profile with the so-called standard obstacle. In the article we present several alternatives for the mathematical model of such a road and also the mathematical model of the trajectory of the vehicle while traversing this standard obstacle. The shape of the obstacle meets the requirement of continuous one-point contact of the tire with the road; it does not contain singular points, and thus provides conditions for safer driving, especially when transporting persons in critical condition, or shocks-sensitive or hazardous materials.

scholarly journals A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Li ◽  
Xianhong Yin ◽  
Meng Liang ◽  
Xiaoyu Liu ◽  
Meng Hao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
New Diagnosis ◽  
The Mathematical Model

AbstractImportanceTo predict the diagnosed COVID-19 patients and the trend of the epidemic in China. It may give the public some scientific information to ease the fear of the epidemic.ObjectiveIn December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation.DesignAccording to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak.SettingOur model was based on the epidemic situation in China, which could provide referential significance for disease prediction in other countries, and provide clues for prevention and intervention of relevant health authorities.ParticipantsIn this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website.Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number:,where Ni is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, and α was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10.ResultsBased on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to March.Conclusions and RelevanceThrough the establishment of our model, we can better predict the trend of the epidemic in China.

scholarly journals Chilled Station Optimization Operation Based on TRNSYS Simulation of an Existing Public Building

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baogang Zhang ◽  
Chang Sun ◽  
Ming Liu ◽  
Lin Lv
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Frequency Control ◽  
Cooling Capacity ◽  
Air Conditioning System ◽  
Public Building ◽  
The Public ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Efficiency Rate

Taking an existing public building as an example, on the basis of the measured data, the mathematical model of each equipment module of the chilled station and the TRNSYS custom module are established. The mathematical model of “chilled station cooling capacity—equipment power” is proposed and established. The full-frequency control strategy based on device contribution rate is proposed and established to set up the Matlab control module of the chilled station. The TRNSYS simulation platform is used to simulate a public building chilled station in cooling season. The result shows that the season energy efficiency rate of the public building air-conditioning system is 2.15 times the original after applying the new control strategy.

Comparison of Tolling Strategies for Highway 407 in the Greater Toronto Area

1997 ◽  
Vol 1576 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Mekky
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
North America ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Greater Toronto Area ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Entrance Ramps ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Tolling strategies recently tested for Highway 407 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are described and analyzed. The GTA is one of the fastest-growing urban areas in North America, with a population of about 5 million. Highway 407, a six-/four-lane freeway in the GTA, has been considered for many years as a relief for Highway 401. It is the busiest highway in North America and is used by more than 1 million vehicles per day. Highway 407 is being planned and constructed as a toll highway. Four strategies are compared. In the base strategy, the toll rate per kilometer is fixed and the value of the toll paid depends on the distance traveled on the highway. In Strategy 2, vehicles on Highway 407 are tolled on the entrance ramps as well as at some points on the highway (main “virtual” plazas). In Strategies 3 and 4, each driver has two choices. The first is to pay a toll depending on the distance traveled. The second is to pay a certain fixed toll once the driver crosses certain points on the highway (mainline plazas) and on the exit ramps. The strategies are compared from the points of view of the number of users, the vehicle-kilometers on the highway, the revenues, and the average toll paid. The GTA mathematical model, within the EMME/2 environment, is used. The mathematical model and the evaluation process are described.

scholarly journals A MODEL OF INTERACTION OF TRAVELERS, PARKING AGENCY AND AUTHORITIES FOR OPTIMIZATION FREE AND PAID PARKING

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Mark Evgenyevich Koryagin ◽  
Igor Vylegzhanin
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Game Theory ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Public Good ◽  
Mutual Dependence ◽  
The Public ◽  
Numerical Example ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
The City

The system of two parking lots is researched: paid and free. The task of the city authorities is to determine part of the land for parking agency. The agency selects the best parking fee, and travelers determine which parking to choose. The goals of each participant are different: passengers attempt to minimize the loss of time and parking fees, the agency maximizes profits, and the city thinks about the public good (in this case, about all travelers). The mutual dependence of participants leads to the need to apply game theory to describe their interaction. The mathematical model defines restrictions on the parameters for existence Nash equilibrium. The numerical example that does not contradict the existing picture of the world is considered.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KESTABILAN MODEL MATEMATIKA JUMLAH PEROKOK PENGARUH KENAIKAN HARGA ROKOK DENGAN DINAMIKA AKAR KUADRAT

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 283
Author(s):  
FIDELIS NOFERTINUS ZAI ◽  
ARYL ZULDAUS SEMBIRING ◽  
ARDINAL VANBASTEN ◽  
ANGGI NOVITA NASUTION ◽  
LASKER PANGARAPAN SINAGA
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Square Root ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Root Dynamics ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Heavy Smokers

Consumption of cigarettes in large quantities by the public is one of the main concerns in every country because cigarettes contain harmful ingredients that can trigger various diseases. This journal will explain the mathematical model of the number of smokers affected by rising prices of cigarettes with square root dynamics. The population is divided into four, composed of potential smokers, occasionally smokers, heavy smokers, and ex-smokers. The results of the model analysis are that there is a single point of smoker’s endemic equilibrium. If conditions are met, then the endemic equilibrium point of smokers will be asymptotically stable, and over a long period of time there will always be a spread of smokers.

scholarly journals The Use of Social Digital Networks by NGDO from a Social Marketing Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galiano-Coronil ◽  
MierTerán-Franco
Keyword(s):  
Social Marketing ◽  
Communication Channels ◽  
Digital Networks ◽  
The Public ◽  
Development Organizations ◽  
The Social ◽  
Quality Aspects ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Public Reaction

The social marketing paradigm has been changing due to the use of digital social networks. This causes Non-Governmental Development Organizations’ efforts to focus on achieving a greater reaction from the public in these communication channels. We propose that the way forward is to analyze aspects of messages that give rise to a greater response from the audience. In this regard, we have analyzed 3608 Facebook and Twitter publications with the combination of content analysis and correlation analysis. We have considered three aspects: purpose, theme, and quality of the message. We have also listed a breakdown of quality and purpose parameters in order to become more fully acquainted with these aspects. The objectives of this research are firstly to carry out the communication profiles of the NGDOs studied from the points of view of the organizations and the public. Secondly, to analyze the reaction from the public (interactions) measured by the sum of likes plus the number of shares for each post, on Facebook and Twitter, according the parameters considered. The results showed that the most published messages from the organizations do not usually coincide with those that have the most impact on the public. Another proven aspect is that Twitter posts about behavior have more effectiveness than informative messages. Likewise, quality aspects, such as hashtags, mentions, or links, are not succeeding in generating public reaction.

scholarly journals Deliberately Prejudiced Self-Driving Vehicles Elicit the Most Outrage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian De Freitas ◽  
Mina Cikara
Keyword(s):  
Young Children ◽  
Elderly Person ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Moral Outrage ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
Public Reaction

Should self-driving vehicles be prejudiced, e.g., deliberately harm the elderly over young children? When people make such forced-choices on the vehicle’s behalf, they exhibit systematic preferences (e.g., favor young children), yet when their options are unconstrained they favor egalitarianism. So, which of these response patterns should guide AV programming and policy? We argue that this debate is missing the public reaction most likely to threaten the industry’s life-saving potential: moral outrage. We find that people are more outraged by AVs that kill discriminately than indiscriminately. Crucially, they are even more outraged by an AV that deliberately kills a less preferred group (e.g., an elderly person over a child) than by one that indiscriminately kills a more preferred group (e.g., a child). Thus, at least insofar as the public is concerned, there may be more reason to depict and program AVs as egalitarian.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in India: Predictions, Reproduction Number and Public Health Preparedness

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balram Rai ◽  
Anandi Shukla ◽  
Laxmi Kant Dwivedi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Public Health Preparedness ◽  
The Public ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
The Mathematical Model

AbstractIntroductionThe COVID-19 has emerged as a global concern for public health due to large scale outbreak. The number of confirmed cases has also been increased in India in past few weeks. The predictions for the COVID-19 can provide insights into the epidemiology of the disease, which helps policymakers to check health system capacities.MethodsWe obtained data on daily confirmed, recovered and deaths cases for a period of 21 days and have implemented the exponential growth model to predict the future cases for all the three components. The mathematical model was used to calculate the average reproduction number and herd immunity. We estimated the number of active cases till 30th of April. We have also tried to analyze the public health capacity to combat COVID-19 in India.ResultsIf the exponential growth in number of cases continue then the total number of active cases will be 2,49,635 until the end of April. The reproduction number for COVID-19 in India was found to be 2.56 and herd immunity as 61%. The cumulative cases predicted by the mathematical model was 1,20,203.DiscussionThis prediction provides an alarming situation for India in terms of public health preparedness. The number of tests is needed to increase to detect all the cases of COVID-19 in India. Though some serious preventive measures have been implemented, but India should be ready to face any sudden community outbreak.

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