scholarly journals A GENETIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING ECONOMIC SENTIMENT IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 262-279
Author(s):  
Oscar Claveria ◽  
Enric Monte ◽  
Salvador Torra
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Fitness Function ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Baltic

In this study, we introduce a sentiment construction method based on the evolution of survey-based indicators. We make use of genetic algorithms to evolve qualitative expectations in order to generate country-specific empirical economic sentiment indicators in the three Baltic republics and the European Union. First, for each country we search for the non-linear combination of firms’ and households’ expectations that minimises a fitness function. Second, we compute the frequency with which each survey expectation appears in the evolved indicators and examine the lag structure per variable selected by the algorithm. The industry survey indicator with the highest predictive performance are production expectations, while in the case of the consumer survey the distribution between variables is multi-modal. Third, we evaluate the out-of-sample predictive performance of the generated indicators, obtaining more accurate estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates than with the scaled industrial and consumer confidence indicators. Finally, we use non-linear constrained optimisation to combine the evolved expectations of firms and consumers and generate aggregate expectations of of year-on-year GDP growth. We find that, in most cases, aggregate expectations outperform recursive autoregressive predictions of economic growth.

The Baltic States in the European Union: Main Characteristics of Membership and Their Anti-Russian Orientation

2021 ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Vladimir Olenchenko
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Current State ◽  
Contractual Obligations ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

In 2019, the Baltic states passed the 15-year mark of membership in the European Union. This anniversary was not celebrated in the Baltic states or in the EU and did not attract attention of other countries. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the Baltic states chose not to join the CIS, but to join the EU. For Russia, the Baltic states are immediate geographical neighbours, which generate conflict in bilateral relations. The purpose of the study is to examine how the Baltic states' membership in the EU affected the main characteristics of their development and to what extent anti-Russian orientation of the Baltic foreign policy is due to EU membership. Achievement of this goal is seen through the solution of two tasks. The first is to study the current state of the Baltic economies. The second is to analyze the Baltic states conflict in relations with Russia within the EU. For the study, the method of comparing the statistical data of the EU for 2004-2019 was used in relation to the Baltic countries, as well as a comparison of the contractual obligations of relations between Russia and the EU with the practice of the Baltic countries. The results of the study show that the Baltic economies, despite long enough EU membership, remain subsidized. Conflict between the Baltic states and Russia does not directly come from the legal basis of their membership in the EU but is mostly due to several other external factors.

scholarly journals Converging or diverging trajectories of mortality under one year of age in the Baltic States: a comparison with the European Union

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Genowska ◽  
Birute Strukcinskiene ◽  
Anita Villerusa ◽  
Jerzy Konstantynowicz
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Fetal Mortality ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Background Information about trends in perinatal and child health inequalities is scarce, especially in the Eastern Europe. We analyzed how mortality under 1 year of age has been changing in the Baltic States and the European Union (EU) over 25 years, and what associations occurred between changes in macroeconomic factors and mortality. Methods Data on fetal, neonatal, infant mortality, and macroeconomic factors were extracted from WHO database. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze time trajectories of mortality over 1990–2014. We also investigated how the changes in health expenditures and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contributed to the changes in mortality. Results The reduction of fetal, neonatal and infant mortality in the Baltic countries led to convergence with the EU. In Estonia this process was the fastest, and then the rates tended to diverge. The strongest effect in reduction of neonatal mortality was related to the annual increase in health expenditure and GDP which had occurred in the same year, and a decrease in fetal mortality associated with an increase in health expenditure and GDP in the 4th and 5th year, respectively, following the initial change. Conclusions These findings outlined convergences and divergences in mortality under 1 year of age in the Baltic States compared with the patterns of the EU. Our data highlighted a need to define health policy directions aimed at the implementation of effective intervention modalities addressing reduction of risks in prenatal and early life.

scholarly journals The implementation of synthetic variable for constructing the sandard of living measure in European Union countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-19
Author(s):  
Marta Kuc
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
European Union Countries ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

This paper proposes the use of synthetic variable to examine differences in the standard of living in the EU countries. The synthetic variable allows to replace the whole set of variables into one aggregated variable. This variable is the basis for organizing and grouping countries in terms of standard of living. The subject of empirical analysis are 24 member states of the European Union in 1995-2010. The analysis of synthetic variable reveals that there are significant disparities between countries in the field of overall socio-economic development. The analysis show favorable situation in Ireland and very unfavorable conditions in Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic countries.

scholarly journals Analysis of the European integration process Baltic countries: experience for Ukraine

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
Yu. Masyk
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Member States ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

The article analyzes the peculiarities of the integration of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia into the European Union. The stages are highlighted, the principles and mechanisms of the European integration policy of the Baltic States are clarified. The problems of Ukraine's adaptation to the requirements of the European Union, in particular the conditions of the Copenhagen criteria, ways to use the relevant experience of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are revealed. Recommendations for further rapprochement of Ukraine with the EU are considered. The accession of dozens of new countries to the EU in May 2004 marked a qualitatively new stage in the integration process both in Europe and in the world. As a result of the largest enlargement of the European Union, the state of the economy in the old member states has changed significantly, but rather it has had decisive consequences in all areas of the economy for the new member states. Analysis of the positive and negative phenomena that accompanied the enlargement of the EU is important for countries that have or are considering joining the EU in the future, in the formation of long-term economic policy and deciding on the directions of their integration. The closest to Ukraine in terms of development in the EU are the countries of Central Europe and the Baltics, so their experience will be useful for our country. Integration with the European Union was less difficult for the three Baltic states than for many other accessing countries, due to their strong social impetus to join Western political, economic and legal culture after they regained their independence from the Soviet Union in 1990. However, the accession of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had several distinctive features related to constitutional origin and institutions, which had a strong impact on the resolution of problems between the government and the EU institutions. The path taken by the Baltic countries upon accession to the EU was difficult and their role in the EU was not easy. Today, the EU-related agenda requires more skills than ever before in finding allies and choosing partners.

scholarly journals Europe´s Refugee Crisis in 2015 and Security Threats from the Baltic Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viljar Veebel ◽  
Raul Markus
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
National Governments ◽  
The Eu

Recent developments in Europe starting with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ending with the economic and political instability in Greece have given rise to instability in the European Union. Yet, none of the previous crises could be compared with the crisis concerning the current massive influx of refugees into the EU that challenges both solidarity and responsibility of the member states. In this context, it is extremely important to understand the actual security threats related to the refugee crisis, particularly for the Baltic countries that have linked their security with European Union and the NATO. Particularly in Estonia and in Latvia, the refugee crisis has been presented as a high security matter as possible rejection of the EU-migrant could lead to the country’s isolation from the international community, the loss of the NATO security network and its exposure to the security threats from Russia. Alternative decision to accept the refugee quotas could on the other hand create challenges for internal security in terms of legitimacy of national governments and public support to refugee policy. In the light of recent terrorist attacks in France these questions seem even growingly important.

scholarly journals Some Aspects of the Baltic Countries’ Pre- and Post- Accession Convergence to the European Union

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mait Talts
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Legal Aspects ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis comprehensive article provides an overview of the broader process of political, legal and societal changes characterizing the Baltic countries’ convergence towards the European Union. The article aims to identify the specific areas and issues which reveal both similarities and differences between the three Baltic countries. Special focus has been given to issues of economic development, economic policy choices, employment, public opinion and some legal aspects. The article, first of all, tries to reveal the differences between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania stemming from different economic policy decisions made by the Baltic countries in the 1990s as well as from to the fact that in 1997-1999 the European Union treated the Baltic countries somewhat differently in terms of conditionality. However, during the 21st century, especially due to the economic recession, the ‘Baltic clocks’ have been synchronized despite the obvious differences in political system and levels of economic development. The author of the current article believes that the main factor behind that development was the convergence to European Union.

Baltic States in the European Union

2006 ◽  
pp. 118-132
Author(s):  
R. Simonyan
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The Baltic

The article analyzes social and economic changes, which have occurred in the Baltic states after their EU accession. It reveals new tendencies in the development of this new region of the united Europe that plays a significant geostrategic role for Russia.

scholarly journals PARTY POSITIONS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE BALTIC STATES: DO THEY COMPETE? DO THEY MIRROR VOTERS’ POSITIONS?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Tomas Bekišas
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

This paper aims to determine Lithuania’s, Latvia’s, and Estonia’s parties’ positions on the European Union (EU) and to ascertain whether these party positions mirror their voters’ positions on the EU. Analysis suggests that parties in this region have rather varied positions on the EU, with the exception of hard-Eurosceptic views, which are absent in Baltic states’ party systems. This paper also indicates that parties in the Baltic states tend to mirror, with some exceptions, their voters positions on the EU. This suggests that there may be additional factors determining parties’ positions regarding the EU in the Baltics.

European Union in Counter-Crisis Competition of Power Centers: Potential, Realities, Hopes

2013 ◽  
pp. 68-77
Author(s):  
K. Voronov
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Historical Experience ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Evolutionary Robustness ◽  
Power Centers ◽  
Macroeconomic Growth ◽  
The Eu

Despite the crisis, the economy of the European Union remains to be the largest in the world. The economic mechanism of the EU is rather differentiated. It has a great historical experience and possesses sufficient evolutionary robustness. Currently, the former relationships between the EU and the USA undergo substantial changes and new forms emerge. For both of them the greatest challenge is presented by China which in recent decades shows the solid rates of GDP growth. Supposedly, Chines economy will become the world largest on in the new future. Under such conditions the Old World has to conduct a persistent search for new sources of its successful macroeconomic growth.

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