scholarly journals Use of ovitraps for the seasonal and spatial monitoring of Aedes spp. in an area endemic for arboviruses in Northeast Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (04) ◽  
pp. 387-393
Author(s):  
João Victor Oliveira Noleto ◽  
Hevilem Letícia Moura do Nascimento Moraes ◽  
Tamires De Moura Lima ◽  
João Gustavo Mendes Rodrigues ◽  
Diogo Tavares Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Northeast Brazil ◽  
Egg Distribution ◽  
Egg Density ◽  
Set Up

Introduction: Due to recent outbreaks of Dengue and Chikungunya and an absence of effective monitoring of the mosquito Aedes spp. in the municipality of São Raimundo das Mangabeiras, State of Maranhão, we aimed to demonstrate the potential of ovitraps used together with mathematical models and geotechnology to improve control of this mosquito. Methodology: From January to December of 2017, ovitraps were set up in five different neighborhoods (Centro, Vila Cardoso, Nazaré, São José e São Francisco). Positivity indices were calculated for each ovitraps, besides the egg density and average number of eggs. Some of the eggs were used for species identification. Mathematical models of correlation and logistic regression were used to evaluate the influence of abiotic factors on egg distribution during each month. Spatial analysis was carried out using georeferencing. Results: A total of 4,453 eggs were counted, with A. aegypti and A. albopictus present in each month and neighborhood. The mathematical models show that rainfall can result in a significant increase in the number of eggs. Entomological calculation indicates that there is a high risk of dissemination of arboviruses in the area. Spatially, it was possible to indicate sites with the largest number of collected eggs, which may facilitate future interventions. Conclusions: As such, ovitraps have proven to be an effective and low cost method for the monitoring of Aedes spp., and that its use may help in arboviruses prevention campaigns.

scholarly journals Predictive model of development of atopic dermatitis in children

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
S V Levashcva ◽  
E I Etkina ◽  
A A Fazylova ◽  
G D Sakaeva ◽  
L I Babenkova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atopic Dermatitis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Logistic Regression Method ◽  
Monitoring Group ◽  
Logistic Regression Equation

Background. To identify the set of possible predictors of atopic dermatitis forming in children. Methods. There were 440 children aged from 0 to 18 years old (315 patients with atopic dermatitis, 125 - children of the monitoring group) under investigation. Mathematical models used logistic regression method were developed. Results. On the basis of the obtained data the logistic regression equation was selected, including 16 predictors, statistical significance of which was within 5% of the Wald statistics. Conclusion. Practical application of the devised formula will help to identify children with high risk to develop atopic dermatitis.

scholarly journals Identifying hidden Zika hotspots in Pernambuco, Brazil: A spatial analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laís Picinini Freitas ◽  
Rachel Lowe ◽  
Andrew E. Koepp ◽  
Sandra Valongueiro Alves ◽  
Molly Dondero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Economic Inequality ◽  
Northeast Brazil ◽  
Spatial Scan Statistic ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatial Scan ◽  
Risk Reporting

AbstractNortheast Brazil has the world’s highest rate of Zika-related microcephaly. Yet, in this hard-hit region, traditional case counts of Zika cannot accurately describe Zika risk. Reporting of Zika cases only became mandatory after its association with microcephaly in neonates, when the Zika epidemic was already declining in the region. To advance the study of the Brazilian Zika epidemic and its impacts, we identified hotspots of Zika in Pernambuco state, Northeast Brazil, using Aedes-borne diseases (dengue, chikungunya and Zika) and microcephaly data. We used the Kulldorff’s Poisson purely spatial scan statistic to detect low- and high-risk clusters and combined the results to identify the municipalities most affected by the Zika epidemic. Municipalities were classified as hotspots if they were part of any high-risk cluster, and classified according to a gradient of Zika burden during the epidemic, considering the strength of the evidence. In Pernambuco, officials confirmed 123,934 dengue cases, 167 Zika cases, and 32,983 chikungunya cases between 2014-2017, and 800 microcephaly cases between 2015-2017. We identified 26 Aedes-borne diseases clusters (11 high-risk), and 5 microcephaly cases clusters (3 high-risk). Combining the results, sixty-three out of 184 municipalities were identified as hotspots for Zika. The northeast of Pernambuco and the Sertão region were hit hardest by the Zika epidemic. The first is the most populous area, while the second has one of the highest rates of social and economic inequality in Brazil. The identification of Sertão as a Zika hotspot was only possible because the clusters results were combined. The under-reporting of acute infectious diseases is expected to be higher in poor areas. Therefore, using only Aedes-borne data does not correctly identify the high-risk areas. We successfully identified hidden Zika hotspots using a simple methodology combining Aedes-borne diseases and microcephaly information.

HHS Moves to Set Up High-Risk Insurance Pools

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
MARY ELLEN SCHNEIDER
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Risk Insurance

Development of a Capacitor Probe to Detect Subsurface Deterioration in Concrete

1997 ◽  
Vol 503 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. K. Diefenderfer ◽  
I. L. Al-Qadi ◽  
J. J. Yoho ◽  
S. M. Riad ◽  
A. Loulizi
Keyword(s):  
Dielectric Constant ◽  
Portland Cement ◽  
Electromagnetic Waves ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Complex Dielectric Constant ◽  
Life Cycle Costs ◽  
Parallel Plates ◽  
Portland Cement Concrete ◽  
Cement Concrete ◽  
Set Up

ABSTRACTPortland cement concrete (PCC) structures deteriorate with age and need to be maintained or replaced. Early detection of deterioration in PCC (e.g., alkali-silica reaction, freeze/thaw damage, or chloride presence) can lead to significant reductions in maintenance costs. However, it is often too late to perform low-cost preventative maintenance by the time deterioration becomes evident. By developing techniques that would enable civil engineers to evaluate PCC structures and detect deterioration at early stages (without causing further damage), optimization of life-cycle costs of the constructed facility and minimization of disturbance to the facility users can be achieved.Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods are potentially one of the most useful techniques ever developed for assessing constructed facilities. They are noninvasive and can be performed rapidly. Portland cement concrete can be nondestructively evaluated by electrically characterizing its complex dielectric constant. The real part of the dielectric constant depicts the velocity of electromagnetic waves in PCC. The imaginary part, termed the “loss factor,” describes the conductivity of PCC and the attenuation of electromagnetic waves.Dielectric properties of PCC have been investigated in a laboratory setting using a parallel plate capacitor operating in the frequency range of 0.1 to 40.1MIHz. This capacitor set-up consists of two horizontal-parallel plates with an adjustable separation for insertion of a dielectric specimen (PCC). While useful in research, this approach is not practical for field implementation. A new capacitor probe has been developed which consists of two plates, located within the same horizontal plane, for placement upon the specimen to be tested. Preliminary results show that this technique is feasible and results are promising; further testing and evaluation is currently underway.

Fault Localization of Power-Ground Short via Signal Injection and Oscilloscope Technique

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Short Circuit ◽  
Fault Localization ◽  
Fault Isolation ◽  
Test Apparatus ◽  
Good Working ◽  
Signal Injection ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Non Destructive ◽  
Short Circuit Condition

Abstract For those attempting fault isolation on computer motherboard power-ground short issues, the optimal technique should utilize existing test equipment available in the debug facility, requiring no specialty equipment as well as needing a minimum of training to use effectively. The test apparatus should be both easy to set up and easy to use. This article describes the signal injection and oscilloscope technique which meets the above requirements. The signal injection and oscilloscope technique is based on the application of Ohm's law in a short-circuit condition. Two experiments were conducted to prove the effectiveness of these techniques. Both experiments simulate a short-circuit condition on the VCC3 power rail of a good working PC motherboard and then apply the signal injection and oscilloscope technique to localize the short. The technique described is a simple, low cost and non-destructive method that helps to find the location of the power-ground short quickly and effectively.

Optimum Design for the Frame of Open Type Abrasive Flow Polish Machine

2012 ◽  
Vol 497 ◽  
pp. 89-93
Author(s):  
Liang Liang Yuan ◽  
Ke Hua Zhang ◽  
Li Min
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Natural Frequency ◽  
Finite Element Methods ◽  
Optimization Design ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Optimization Analysis ◽  
Open Type ◽  
Set Up

In order to process heterotype hole of workpiece precisely, an open abrasive flow polish machine is designed, and the optimization design of machine frame is done for low cost. Firstly, basing on the parameters designed with traditional ways, three-dimensional force model is set up with the soft of SolidWorks. Secondly, the statics and modal analysis for machine body have been done in Finite element methods (FEM), and then the optimization analysis of machine frame has been done. At last, the model of rebuild machine frame has been built. Result shows that the deformation angle value of machine frame increased from 0.72′ to 1.001′, the natural frequency of the machine decreased from 75.549 Hz to 62.262 Hz, the weight of machine decreased by 74.178 Kg after optimization. It meets the strength, stiffness and angel stiffness requirement of machine, reduces the weight and cost of machine.

scholarly journals Innovative passive reinforcements for the gradual stabilization of a landslide according with the observational method

Landslides ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Brezzi ◽  
Alberto Bisson ◽  
Davide Pasa ◽  
Simonetta Cola
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Fe Model ◽  
Site Conditions ◽  
Observational Method ◽  
Rainy Period ◽  
Sustainable Solutions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Set Up

AbstractA large number of landslides occur in North-Eastern Italy during every rainy period due to the particular hydrogeological conditions of this area. Even if there are no casualties, the economic losses are often significant, and municipalities frequently do not have sufficient financial resources to repair the damage and stabilize all the unstable slopes. In this regard, the research for more economically sustainable solutions is a crucial challenge. Floating composite anchors are an innovative and low-cost technique set up for slope stabilization: it consists in the use of passive sub-horizontal reinforcements, obtained by coupling a traditional self-drilling bar with some tendons cemented inside it. This work concerns the application of this technique according to the observational method described within the Italian and European technical codes and mainly recommended for the design of geotechnical works, especially when performed in highly uncertain site conditions. The observational method prescribes designing an intervention and, at the same time, using a monitoring system in order to correct and adapt the project during realization of the works on the basis of new data acquired while on site. The case study is the landslide of Cischele, a medium landslide which occurred in 2010 after an exceptional heavy rainy period. In 2015, some floating composite anchors were installed to slow down the movement, even if, due to a limited budget, they were not enough to ensure the complete stabilization of the slope. Thanks to a monitoring system installed in the meantime, it is now possible to have a comparison between the site conditions before and after the intervention. This allows the evaluation of benefits achieved with the reinforcements and, at the same time, the assessment of additional improvements. Two stabilization scenarios are studied through an FE model: the first includes the stabilization system built in 2015, while the second evaluates a new solution proposed to further increase the slope stability.

scholarly journals Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

scholarly journals CHARGE-AF in a national routine primary care electronic health records database in the Netherlands: validation for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation and implications for patient selection in atrial fibrillation screening

Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001459
Author(s):  
Jelle C L Himmelreich ◽  
Wim A M Lucassen ◽  
Ralf E Harskamp ◽  
Claire Aussems ◽  
Henk C P M van Weert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
High Risk ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Patient Selection ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Primary Care Data ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Kaplan Meier

AimsTo validate a multivariable risk prediction model (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for atrial fibrillation (CHARGE-AF)) for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in routinely collected primary care data and to assess CHARGE-AF’s potential for automated, low-cost selection of patients at high risk for AF based on routine primary care data.MethodsWe included patients aged ≥40 years, free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline, 1 January 2014, in a representative, nationwide routine primary care database in the Netherlands (Nivel-PCD). We validated CHARGE-AF for 5-year observed AF incidence using the C-statistic for discrimination, and calibration plot and stratified Kaplan-Meier plot for calibration. We compared CHARGE-AF with other predictors and assessed implications of using different CHARGE-AF cut-offs to select high-risk patients.ResultsAmong 111 475 patients free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline (17.2% of all patients aged ≥40 years and free of AF), mean age was 65.5 years, and 53% were female. Complete CHARGE-AF cases were older and had higher AF incidence and cardiovascular comorbidity rate than incomplete cases. There were 5264 (4.7%) new AF cases during 5-year follow-up among complete cases. CHARGE-AF’s C-statistic for new AF was 0.74 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.74). The calibration plot showed slight risk underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation of absolute AF risk in those with highest predicted risk. The Kaplan-Meier plot with categories <2.5%, 2.5%–5% and >5% predicted 5-year risk was highly accurate. CHARGE-AF outperformed CHA2DS2-VASc (Cardiac failure or dysfunction, Hypertension, Age >=75 [Doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [Doubled]-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, and Sex category [Female]) and age alone as predictors for AF. Dichotomisation at cut-offs of 2.5%, 5% and 10% baseline CHARGE-AF risk all showed merits for patient selection in AF screening efforts.ConclusionIn patients with complete baseline CHARGE-AF data through routine Dutch primary care, CHARGE-AF accurately assessed AF risk among older primary care patients, outperformed both CHA2DS2-VASc and age alone as predictors for AF and showed potential for automated, low-cost patient selection in AF screening.

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