Canada Goose Gosling Mortality During Prefledging and Early Migration on Akimiski Island, Nunavut

Mortality rates for precocial avian species are highest during their first year of life. For harvested species, including waterfowl, it is particularly difficult to determine causes of mortality using standard mark–recapture techniques. The timing and cause of nonhunting mortality is difficult for researchers to distinguish, and therefore, difficult to incorporate into management decisions. We marked flightless Canada goose Branta canadensis interior goslings with radio transmitters to determine the timing of mortality prior to harvest during the fall migration. We tracked survival of 206 goslings for 2 mo from an average of 50 d of age to just prior to the fall migration departure from the breeding grounds in 1999 and 2000. The most parsimonious model from a set of candidate models describing probability of survival showed clear differences between years and suggested that survival was affected by gosling size (largest survived better) and hatch timing disparity. We indexed hatch timing disparity by measuring the difference between gosling hatch date and the date of the estimated peak in forage quality as determined by the normalized difference vegetation index. The latest hatched goslings presumably had the lowest quality forage available to them. Both size and hatch timing disparity concur with a mortality cause that is most likely from complications due to malnutrition. The estimated survival probability of goslings to 51 d post marking was 0.31 (95% confidence limit = 0.22 to 0.44) in 1999 and 0.69 (95% confidence limit = 0.57 to 0.83) in 2000. Managers can make better informed decisions concerning the utility of harvest regulation in the conservation of juvenile Canada geese by better understanding the timing, causes, and annual variation of their mortality.