Electric Vehicle Forecasting for China from 2011 to 2050 Based on Scenario Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 128-129 ◽  
pp. 846-849
Author(s):  
Shi Jun Fu ◽  
Yu Long Ren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
New Industry

With climate change being growing concerns, the development of EV (Electric Vehicles) has taken on an accelerated pace. This paper is to forecast China’s EV stock from 2011 to 2050 based on the double species growth model. We elaborate two orbits according to two scenarios: with vehicle stock being 200 and 300 per thousand people at 2050. These orbits reveals that, China’s EVs development has a golden stage which will last 10 to 11 years; And before this booming stage, there is a slowly growth period which will last 7 to 8 years. Furthermore, under each scenario, the difference between EVs and ICEVs (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles) stock at 2030 is 4.69% to 6.77%, which confirms that China’s ambitious EVs program may be realized if government sets strong policy supports on this new industry persistently.

Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) Prediction Based on the Double Species Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 918 ◽  
pp. 101-105
Author(s):  
Shi Jun Fu
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
The Difference ◽  
New Industry

With climate change and energy security being growing concerns, Electric Vehicles (EVs) growth has taken on an accelerated pace. This research aims to predict Chinese EVs and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) stock in the forth coming 40 years. We introduce the double species model to fulfil this program, by solving the model and computer simulating, two trajectories for their growth under different scenarios400 vehicles and 500 vehicles per thousand people at 2050 year are obtained. It reveals that, (i) ICEVs is already in booming stage and will last 16-18 years. (ii) EVs has a golden stage which will last 13-14 years, and before this prospective stage, there is an initial slow growth period which will probably last 10-11 years. (iii) Under each scenario, the difference between EVs and ICEVs stock at year 2030 is 8.63%-10.13%, which confirms that Chinese ambitious EVs development program may be realized if government provides strong policy supports on this new industry. Its contribution is a new method to predict EVs as well as getting two interactive trajectories for EVs and ICEVs growth.

scholarly journals Exploring Factors that Influence Individuals’ Choice Between Internal Combustion Engine Cars and Electric Vehicles

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Dominik Bucher ◽  
Henry Martin ◽  
Jannik Hamper ◽  
Atefeh Jaleh ◽  
Henrik Becker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Range Anxiety

Abstract. The adoption of electric vehicles has the potential to help decarbonizing the transport sector if they are powered by renewable energy sources. Limitations commonly associated with e-cars are their comparatively short ranges and long recharging cycles, leading to anxiety when having to travel long distances. Other factors such as temperature, destination or weekday may influence people in choosing an e-car for a certain trip. Using a unique dataset of 129 people who own both an electric vehicle (EV) as well as one powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE), we analyze tracking data over a year in order to have an empirically verified choice model. Based on a wide range of predictors, this model tells us for an individual journey if the person would rather choose the EV or the ICE car. Our findings show that there are only weak relations between the predictor and target variables, indicating that for many people the switch to an e-car would not affect their lifestyle and the related range anxiety diminishes when actually owning an electric vehicle. In addition, we find that choice behavior does not generalize well over different users.

Electrifying Ride-Hailing in the United States, Europe, and Canada: How to Enable Ride-Hailing Drivers to Switch to Electric Vehicles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah Lazer ◽  
Sadanand Wachche ◽  
Ryan Sclar ◽  
Sarah Cassius
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
The United States ◽  
Charging Infrastructure ◽  
Transportation Emissions ◽  
Ev Charging

Efforts to reduce transportation emissions through electrification can accelerate their impact by focusing on intensively used vehicles. Vehicles driven on ride-hailing platforms such as Uber and Lyft are intensively used, and their distinct charging patterns can support the development of essential electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. However, vehicles used for ride-hailing are often missed by actions to electrify other intensively used vehicles, and an array of disparately available financial incentives, EV models, and charging options produce a complicated landscape where it is often unclear whether an EV costs more or less than an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle or is suitable for ride-hailing. As a result, in U.S., European, and Canadian cities, the share of EVs among vehicles used for ride-hailing is often lower than or similar to the share of EVs in the overall vehicle stock. This paper identifies the largest barriers that prevent ride-hailing drivers from accessing EVs and analyzes ways that governments, industry and other stakeholders can tackle those barriers. It includes city scorecards that evaluate 10 U.S., European and Canadian cities on their progress towards dismantling these barriers, using an original methodology and data from Uber.

scholarly journals Series-Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle Parameter Analysis using MATLAB

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 421-428
Author(s):  
Richik Ray
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Hybrid Electric Vehicle ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Matlab Simulink ◽  
Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle ◽  
Parallel Hybrid ◽  
Hybrid Electric

Abstract: In this paper, a MATLAB based Simulink model of a Series-Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle is presented. With the advent of Industry 4.0, the usage of Big Data, Machine Learning, Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence, and similar groundbreaking domains of technology have usurped manual supervision in industrial as well as personal scenarios. This is aided by the drastic shift from orthodox and conventional Internal Combustion Engine based vehicles fuelled by fossil fuels in the order of petrol, diesel, etc., to fully functional electric vehicles developed by renowned companies, for example Tesla. Alongside 100% electric vehicles are hybrid vehicles that function on a system based on the integration of the conventional ICE and the modern Electric Propulsion System, which is referred to as the Hybrid Vehicle Drivetrain. Designs for modern HEVs and EVs are developed on computer software where simulations are run and all the essential parameters for the vehicle’s performance and sustainability are run and observed. This paper is articulated to discuss the parameters of a series-parallel HEV through an indepth MATLAB Simulink design, and further the observations are presented. Keywords: ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle), Drivetrain, MATLAB, Simulink, PSD (Power Split Device), Vehicle Dynamics, SOC (State-of-Charge)

scholarly journals Criticality Assessment of the Life Cycle of Passenger Vehicles Produced in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Sun ◽  
Vanessa Bach ◽  
Matthias Finkbeiner ◽  
Jianxin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Battery Electric Vehicle ◽  
Battery Electric Vehicles ◽  
Criticality Assessment

AbstractChina is globally the largest and a rapidly growing market for electric vehicles. The aim of the paper is to determine challenges related to criticality and environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, focusing not only on a global but also the Chinese perspective, applying the ESSENZ method, which covers a unique approach to determine criticality aspects as well as integrating life cycle assessment results. Real industry data for vehicles and batteries produced in China was collected. Further, for the criticality assessment, Chinese import patterns are analyzed. The results show that the battery electric vehicle has similar and partly increased environmental impacts compared with the internal combustion engine vehicle. For both, the vehicle cycle contributes to a large proportion in all the environmental impact categories except for global warming. Further, battery electric vehicles show a higher criticality than internal combustion engine vehicles, with tantalum, lithium, and cobalt playing essential roles. In addition, the Chinese-specific results show a lower criticality compared to the global assessment for the considered categories trade barriers and political stability, while again tantalum crude oil and cobalt have high potential supply disruptions. Concluding, battery electric vehicles still face challenges regarding their environmental as well as criticality performance from the whole supply chain both in China and worldwide. One reason is the replacement of the lithium-ion power battery. By enhancing its quality and establishing battery recycling, the impacts of battery electric vehicle would decrease.

scholarly journals Innovation cognizance and acceptance: The case of electric vehicles adoption in Ontario, Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-69
Author(s):  
Ranjita Singh ◽  
Philip Walsh ◽  
Joshua Goodfield
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Consumer Information ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Regression Modelling ◽  
Intent To Purchase

This study examines the results of a survey of 1,000 Canadian internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle owners to assess factors that would encourage them to purchase an electric vehicle (EV). Further to the work of Peters and Dutschke (2014) and (Matthews et al. (2017) we combine the various drivers of EV adoption, independently identified in the literature, into one model in order to investigate their influence on the intent to purchase an EV. Through correlations and a series of probit regression modelling, we provide evidence to support additional policies that could establish greater relative advantages for owning an EV. These include the promotion of the communication of those advantages through experiential awareness initiatives such as improved access to EV test drives and consumer information. We suggest that car dealerships are important partners in this journey and their association is critical for greater diffusion of EVs in the market. Our findings have implications for EV manufacturers and government policy makers.

scholarly journals A method to predict electric vehicles’ market penetration as well as its impact on energy saving and CO2 mitigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (3) ◽  
pp. 003685042110402
Author(s):  
Shijun Fu ◽  
Hongji Fu
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Market Penetration ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Mitigation

Introduction: Although forecasting electric vehicles’ growth in China was frequently reported in the literature, predicting electric vehicles market penetration as well as corresponding energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential in a more suitable method is not well understood. Methods: This study chose the double species model to predict electric vehicles’ growth trajectory under mutually competitive conditions between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. For comparison, it set two scenarios: with 200 and 300 vehicles per thousand persons at 2050. To give details on energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential induced by electric vehicles’ market penetration, it further divided electric vehicles into five subgroups and internal combustion engine vehicles into seven subgroups, therein forming respective measurement formulas. Results: This paper solved the double species model and thus got its analytical formula. Then it employed the analytical formula to conduct an empirical study on electric vehicles market penetration in China from year 2010 to 2050. Under scenario 300, electric vehicles growth trajectory will emerge a quick growth stage during 2021–2035, thereafter keeping near invariant till 2050. Meanwhile, current internal combustion engine vehicles’ quick growth will continue up to 2027, then holding constant during 2028–2040, afterwards following a 10-year slowdown period. Scenario 200 has similar features, but a 2-year delay for electric vehicles and a 5-year lead time for internal combustion engine vehicles were found. On average, scenario 300 will save 114.4 Mt oil and 111.5 Mt carbon dioxide emissions, and scenario 200 will save 77.1 Mt oil and 73.4 Mt carbon dioxide emissions each year. Beyond 2032, annual 50.0% of road transport consumed oil and 18.6% of carbon dioxide emissions from this sector will be saved under scenario 300. Discussion: Compared with scenario 200, scenario 300 was more suitable to predict electric vehicle market penetration in China. In the short-term electric vehicle penetration only brings about trivial effects, while in the long-term it will contribute a lot to both energy security and carbon dioxide mitigation. The contribution of this article provided a more suitable methodology for predicting electric vehicle market penetration, simulated two coupled trajectories of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, and discussed relative energy-saving and climate effects from 2010 to 2050.

scholarly journals The Costs of Charging Electric Vehicles in Poland

2022 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. A1-A11
Author(s):  
Ewelina Sendek-Matysiak ◽  
Hubert Rzędowski
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
Purchase Price ◽  
Charging Stations

The very important factor that influences the decision of those interested in buying a vehicle is its operating costs. This paper determines the costs of driving 100km for various electric vehicles, charging service providers and chargers, which was then confronted with the costs of refueling. Based on the analysis carried out, it was determined that, at present, the lowest costs of fueling/charging of a vehicle in Poland are connected with use of an electric vehicle, but only when the charging is performed with use of public AC chargers. Moreover, it was determined that the savings that will result from charging electric vehicles at AC charging stations as compared to filling up internal combustion engine vehicles are small and do not compensate for the purchase price of an electric vehicle.

scholarly journals Electrification of the vehicle propulsion system: An overview

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Katic ◽  
Boris Dumnic ◽  
Zoltan Corba ◽  
Dragan Milicevic
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Vehicle Propulsion ◽  
History Of

To achieve EU targets for 2020, internal combustion engine cars need to be gradually replaced with hybrid or electric ones, which have low or zero GHG emission. The paper presents a short overview of dynamic history of the electric vehicles, which led to nowadays modern solutions. Different possibilities for the electric power system realizations are described. Electric vehicle (EV) operation is analyzed in more details. Market future of EVs is discussed and plans for 2020, up to 2030 are presented. Other effects of electrification of the vehicles are also analyzed.

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