Forecasting of Energy Consumption of Beijing's Residential Sector Based on System Dynamics Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 869-870 ◽  
pp. 537-540
Author(s):  
Hui Xie ◽  
Li Feng Wang ◽  
Wei Liang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Feedback System ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Residential Energy ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Complete Dependence

Beijing is a major municipality/province of energy consumption, but poor in energy resources. The inherent and complete dependence on importing energy makes energy security extremely difficult, which draws more attention to the energy conservation in Beijing. With the improvement of people's living standard, the proportion of the residential energy consumption continuously increased. Residential energy saving became the key field of energy conservation and environmental protection. A great many factors of which the relations are complex affect the energy conservation. By introducing System Dynamics analysis, which has a unique advantage of analyzing the multiple and complex feedback system, this paper aims to analyze energy consumption of Beijings residential sector and finally comes to some suggestions towards governments policies.

Analysis and Prediction of the Tertiary Industry in Beijing of China Based on System Dynamics Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 522-524 ◽  
pp. 117-121
Author(s):  
Li Yun Yang ◽  
Ying He
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Tertiary Industry

The tertiary industry in Beijing has won rapid development. In 2010, GDP proportion of the tertiary industry has reached 75%, while the energy consumption of the tertiary industry accounted for 55.4% of the total consumption in Beijing. With the economy development of Beijing, the GDP proportion of the tertiary industry will increase further, thus, the energy saving of the tertiary industry is rather imperative. Based on the corresponding data of economy and energy consumption of Beijing from 2005 to 2010, in this study the system dynamics model was proposed to analyze and predict the energy consumption of the tertiary industry of Beijing in 2015.

A System Dynamics Model for Studying the Policies of Improvement of Chicken Industry Supply Chain

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 20-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Gale Gafi ◽  
Nikbakhsh Javadian
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Breeding Period ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Feed Production ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Pellet Feed ◽  
Production Facilities

The Iranian chicken industry has always been encountered to high and fluctuated chicken prices. The purpose of this article is to find the best choice to prevent chicken prices from increasing more by investments. System dynamics methodology has been used to modeling, evaluating and optimizing chicken supply chain. Considering the existing capabilities for improvement in supply chain and experts opinion, these strategies were proposed; “reduction of breeding period,” “modernization of production facilities,” “Increase in pellet feed production” and “energy conservation.” After implementing the model and testing various scenarios, strategies were prioritized based on key indicators. At last modernization of production facilities is introduced as the best strategy for the next three years.

scholarly journals Projections and Recommendations for Energy Structure and Industrial Structure Development in China through 2030: A System Dynamics Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Han ◽  
Changqing Lin ◽  
Baosheng Zhang ◽  
Arash Farnoosh
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Utilization Efficiency ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Per Capita

In this research, we established a System Dynamics Model named “E&I-SD” to study the development of the energy structure and industrial structure in China from 2000 to 2030 using Vensim Simulation Software based on energy economy theory, system science theory and coordinated development theory. We used Direct Structure Test, Structure-oriented Behavior Test, and Behavior Pattern Test to ensure the optimal operation of the system. The model’s results showed that the indicators of total energy consumption, total added value of GDP after regulation, energy consumption per capita, and GDP per capita were on the rise in China, but emissions per unit of energy showed a downward trend. Separately, the model predicted average annual growth rates in China through 2030. Based on these findings, we proposed important policies for China’s sustainable development. Firstly, short- and long-term policy measures should be implemented to replace fossil fuels with clean energy. Secondly, the utilization efficiency of raw coal should be appraised future. The planning should provide for steady development and improvement of the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. Thirdly, the mid- and long-term plans for development and management of various industrial sectors and the corresponding energy consumption should be based on technological trends. Finally, a market-oriented pricing mechanism for energy should be established in China as soon as possible.

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