scholarly journals Projections and Recommendations for Energy Structure and Industrial Structure Development in China through 2030: A System Dynamics Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Han ◽  
Changqing Lin ◽  
Baosheng Zhang ◽  
Arash Farnoosh
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Utilization Efficiency ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Per Capita

In this research, we established a System Dynamics Model named “E&I-SD” to study the development of the energy structure and industrial structure in China from 2000 to 2030 using Vensim Simulation Software based on energy economy theory, system science theory and coordinated development theory. We used Direct Structure Test, Structure-oriented Behavior Test, and Behavior Pattern Test to ensure the optimal operation of the system. The model’s results showed that the indicators of total energy consumption, total added value of GDP after regulation, energy consumption per capita, and GDP per capita were on the rise in China, but emissions per unit of energy showed a downward trend. Separately, the model predicted average annual growth rates in China through 2030. Based on these findings, we proposed important policies for China’s sustainable development. Firstly, short- and long-term policy measures should be implemented to replace fossil fuels with clean energy. Secondly, the utilization efficiency of raw coal should be appraised future. The planning should provide for steady development and improvement of the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. Thirdly, the mid- and long-term plans for development and management of various industrial sectors and the corresponding energy consumption should be based on technological trends. Finally, a market-oriented pricing mechanism for energy should be established in China as soon as possible.

scholarly journals Transforming a Liability into an Asset: A System Dynamics Model for Free-Ranging Dog Population Management

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Urmila Basu Mallick ◽  
Marja H. Bakermans ◽  
Khalid Saeed
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Social Integration ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Innovative Strategies ◽  
Management Context ◽  
Free Ranging ◽  
Social Rewards

Using Indian free-ranging dogs (FRD) as a case study, we propose a novel intervention of social integration alongside previously proposed methods for dealing with FRD populations. Our study subsumes population dynamics, funding avenues, and innovative strategies to maintain FRD welfare and provide societal benefits. We develop a comprehensive system dynamics model, featuring identifiable parameters customizable for any management context and imperative for successfully planning a widescale FRD population intervention. We examine policy resistance and simulate conventional interventions alongside the proposed social integration effort to compare monetary and social rewards, as well as costs and unintended consequences. For challenging socioeconomic ecological contexts, policy resistance is best overcome by shifting priority strategically between social integration and conventional techniques. The results suggest that social integration can financially support a long-term FRD intervention, while transforming a “pest” population into a resource for animal-assisted health interventions, law enforcement, and conservation efforts.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Online Stores’ Sales: Positive and Negative E-WOM and Promotion Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 6045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Yan ◽  
Simin Zhou ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Ye Li
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Real Data ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Interaction Diagram ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we build a causal interaction diagram between the factors that may influence the sales and profits of online stores. An online store’s real operation data were used to help determine the causal relationship between variables. Finally, we proposed a system dynamics model and conducted a simulation of the operation of an online store. In this model, we focused on the impact of promotion and positive/negative electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) on the sales and profits of the online stores. The simulation results showed a similar trend to the real data and the main research finding showed that promotion is not a long-term measure for the sustainable development of online stores. Excessive promotion effort may lead to consumers’ dissatisfaction leading the increase of negative e-WOM. The systematic simulation can help us understand better the long-term effect of promotion and e-WOM on the operation of online stores. Finally, we gave some management suggestions for online stores’ sustainable operations.

Analysis and Prediction of the Tertiary Industry in Beijing of China Based on System Dynamics Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 522-524 ◽  
pp. 117-121
Author(s):  
Li Yun Yang ◽  
Ying He
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Tertiary Industry

The tertiary industry in Beijing has won rapid development. In 2010, GDP proportion of the tertiary industry has reached 75%, while the energy consumption of the tertiary industry accounted for 55.4% of the total consumption in Beijing. With the economy development of Beijing, the GDP proportion of the tertiary industry will increase further, thus, the energy saving of the tertiary industry is rather imperative. Based on the corresponding data of economy and energy consumption of Beijing from 2005 to 2010, in this study the system dynamics model was proposed to analyze and predict the energy consumption of the tertiary industry of Beijing in 2015.

Forecasting of Energy Consumption of Beijing's Residential Sector Based on System Dynamics Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 869-870 ◽  
pp. 537-540
Author(s):  
Hui Xie ◽  
Li Feng Wang ◽  
Wei Liang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Feedback System ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Residential Energy ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Complete Dependence

Beijing is a major municipality/province of energy consumption, but poor in energy resources. The inherent and complete dependence on importing energy makes energy security extremely difficult, which draws more attention to the energy conservation in Beijing. With the improvement of people's living standard, the proportion of the residential energy consumption continuously increased. Residential energy saving became the key field of energy conservation and environmental protection. A great many factors of which the relations are complex affect the energy conservation. By introducing System Dynamics analysis, which has a unique advantage of analyzing the multiple and complex feedback system, this paper aims to analyze energy consumption of Beijings residential sector and finally comes to some suggestions towards governments policies.

scholarly journals Examining budget policies for new and existing facilities: a system dynamics approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 511-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roozbeh Rashedi ◽  
Tarek Hegazy
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Budget Allocation ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Impact

Sustaining acceptable service in large facility networks is a complex task, particularly under limited budgets, rapid deterioration, and increasing service demands. Policy-makers are, therefore, challenged to make efficient balance between the construction of new facilities and the renewal of existing ones to suit both the short and the long-term needs. To support policy-makers, this paper proposes an efficient decision support system using the system dynamics simulation technique to analyze the impact of various budget allocation policies and to optimize policy decisions. The proposed system dynamics model was tested using a case study from the Toronto District School Board involving more than 400 schools. It can find the optimum budgeting strategy that minimizes the overall facility condition index and total life cycle cost over a long-term strategic plan. The system dynamics model proved its ability to find a budget allocation policy with much better results than the typical enrolment-based approach.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document