Bioclimatic assessment of abiotic factors affecting relative abundance and distribution of wheat stem sawfly (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in western Canada

2018 ◽  
Vol 151 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-33
Author(s):  
Owen Olfert ◽  
Ross M. Weiss ◽  
Haley Catton ◽  
Héctor Cárcamo ◽  
Scott Meers
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Wheat Stem Sawfly ◽  
Ecoclimatic Index

AbstractWheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae), indigenous to North America, quickly adapted from host native grasses to wheat crops (Triticum Linnaeus (Poaceae)) with expansion of agriculture on the Great Plains of North America. Bioclimatic simulation tools, such as Climex, predict the potential geographic distribution and establishment of insects in ecosystems, based on climate. The ecoclimatic index, a measure of ecological suitability, integrates potential population growth with stresses to produce estimates of relative abundance. This simulation software was used to develop a bioclimate model for C. cinctus in western Canada. Results fostered a better understanding of how C. cinctus responded to selected climate variables. Two general circulation models were then applied to assess the response of C. cinctus populations to future climate. Relative to current climate, predicted changes in C. cinctus distribution and relative abundance were greatest for 2030, with a small further increase for 2070. Across the Prairies and Boreal Plains Ecozones, changes in ecoclimatic index were greater than in geographic distribution. Both general circulation models indicated most of this area would be categorised as very favourable. This suggests that the potential for pest populations could expand into areas that do not currently experience economic losses associated with C. cinctus.

Actual and potential distribution of Acrolepiopsis assectella (Lepidoptera: Acrolepiidae), an invasive alien pest of Allium spp. in Canada

2011 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.G. Mason ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
O. Olfert ◽  
M. Appleby ◽  
J.-F. Landry
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Prince Edward Island ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Allium Porrum ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Acrolepiopsis Assectella ◽  
Eastern Ontario

AbstractAcrolepiopsis assectella (Zeller), leek moth, is a widespread and common pest of species of Allium L. (Liliaceae) in the western Palaearctic subregion. The establishment of A. assectella in eastern North America has resulted in economic losses to garlic (Allium sativum L.), leek (Allium porrum L.), and onion (Allium cepa L.) growers, especially to organic producers in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Acrolepiopsis assectella was first recorded in the Ottawa area in 1993. By 2010, A. assectella had expanded its range into eastern Ontario, southwestern Quebec, Prince Edward Island, and New York. A bioclimate model, using CLIMEX simulation software, was developed to produce mapped results that closely approximated known distributions for A. assectella in central Europe. This model was then validated with recorded distribution records in eastern Europe, Asia, and North America. Model output predicted that A. assectella will readily survive in southeastern Canada and the eastern United States of America. Other areas potentially suitable for A. assectella include coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest, the interior of southern British Columbia, and north-central Mexico. The continued range expansion of A. assectella into other Allium-growing areas of eastern North America appears to be inevitable. Establishment in these areas presents the risk of substantial production losses to Allium spp. producers.

Snow-mass intercomparisons in the boreal forests from general circulation models and remotely sensed data sets

Polar Record ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 32 (182) ◽  
pp. 199-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Foster ◽  
Randy Koster ◽  
Helga Behr ◽  
Lydia Dümenil ◽  
Judah Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climatological Data ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Snow Mass

ABSTRACTIn much of the boreal forests, snow covers the ground for half of the year. Since these boreal forests comprise approximately 15% of the land normally covered by snow during the winter and upwards of 40% of the land surface normally snow-covered during the spring and autumn, reliable measures of snow cover and snow mass are required for improved energy-balance and water-balance estimates. In this study, results from snow-depth climatological data (SDC), passive microwave satellite data, and output from general circulation models (GCMs) have been intercompared for the boreal forests of both North America and Eurasia. In Eurasia, during the winter months, snowmass estimates from these data sets correspond rather well; however, in North America, the passive microwave estimates are smaller than the estimates from the climatological data and the modeled data. The underestimation results primarily from the effects of vegetation on the microwave signal. The reason why the underestimation is a bigger problem in North America than in Eurasia is likely due to the use of global microwave algorithms that have not accounted for regional differences in the size of snow grains. The GCMs generally produce too much snow in the spring season. This is a result of the models having moisture amounts that are greater and temperatures that are slightly lower than observed, in the late winter and early spring periods. The models compare more favorably with the SDC in the Eurasian boreal forest than in the forests of North America during the winter season. However, in the spring, the model results for the North America boreal forest are in better agreement with the SDC than are the forests of Eurasia.

Interpreting Results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX Ensembles in the Context of Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Projections

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 2093-2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambarish V. Karmalkar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTwo ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate simulations for North America—the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) featuring simulations for North America (NA-CORDEX)—are analyzed to assess the impact of using a small set of global general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) on representing uncertainty in regional projections. Selecting GCMs for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable strategy, but there are regions where the uncertainty is not fully captured. For instance, the six NA-CORDEX GCMs fail to span the full ranges produced by models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in summer temperature projections in the western and winter precipitation projections in the eastern United States. Similarly, the four NARCCAP GCMs are overall poor at spanning the full CMIP3 ranges in seasonal temperatures. For the Southeast, the NA-CORDEX GCMs capture the uncertainty in summer but not in winter projections, highlighting one consequence of downscaling a subset of GCMs. Ranges produced by the RCMs are often wider than their driving GCMs but are sensitive to the experimental design. For example, the downscaled projections of summer precipitation are of opposite polarity in two RCM ensembles in some regions. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate observed temperature trends is affected by the internal variability characteristics of both the RCMs and driving GCMs, and is not systematically related to their historical performance. This has implications for adequately sampling the impact of internal variability on regional trends and for using model performance to identify credible projections. These findings suggest that a multimodel perspective on uncertainties in regional projections is integral to the interpretation of RCM results.

scholarly journals The geography of phylogenetic paleoecology: integrating data and methods to better understand biotic response to climate change

Paleobiology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 178-197
Author(s):  
A. Michelle Lawing
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Evolutionary Change ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Physiological Tolerances ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Geographic Distributions

AbstractDeeper knowledge about how species and communities respond to climate change and environmental gradients should be supported by evidence from the past, especially as modern responses are influenced by anthropogenic pressures, including human population growth, habitat destruction and fragmentation, and intensifying land use. There have been great advances in modeling species’ geographic distributions over shallow time, where consideration of evolutionary change is likely less important due to shorter time for evolution and speciation to occur. Over these shallow time periods, we have more resources for paleoclimate interpretation across large geographic landscapes. We can also gain insight into species and community changes by studying deep records of temporal changes. However, modeling species geographic distributions in deep time remains challenging, because for many species there is sparse coverage of spatial and temporal occurrences and there are fewer paleoclimate general circulation models (GCMs) to help interpret the geographic distribution of climate availability. In addition, at deeper time periods, it is essential to consider evolutionary change within lineages of species. I will discuss a framework that integrates evolutionary information in the form of phylogenetic relatedness from clades of extant closely related species, where and when there are associated fossil occurrences, and the geographic distribution of paleoclimate in deep time to infer species past geographic response to climate change and to estimate where and when there were hotspots of ancient diversification. More work is needed to better understand the evolution of physiological tolerances and how physiological tolerances relate to the climate space in which species occur.

scholarly journals A Model Study of Heat Waves over North America: Meteorological Aspects and Projections for the Twenty-First Century

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 4761-4784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngar-Cheung Lau ◽  
Mary Jo Nath
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The characteristics of summertime heat waves in North America are examined using reanalysis data and simulations by two general circulation models with horizontal resolution of 50 and 200 km. Several “key regions” with spatially coherent and high amplitude fluctuations in daily surface air temperature are identified. The typical synoptic features accompanying warm episodes in these regions are described. The averaged intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the heat waves in various key regions, as simulated in the two models for twentieth-century climate, are in general agreement with the results based on reanalysis data. The impact of climate change on the heat wave characteristics in various key regions is assessed by contrasting model runs based on a scenario for the twenty-first century with those for the twentieth century. Both models indicate considerable increases in the duration and frequency of heat wave episodes, and in number of heat wave days per year, during the twenty-first century. The duration and frequency statistics of the heat waves in the mid-twenty-first century, as generated by the model with 50-km resolution, can be reproduced by adding the projected warming trend to the daily temperature data for the late twentieth century, and then recomputing these statistics. The detailed evolution of the averaged intensity, duration, and frequency of the heat waves through individual decades of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, as simulated and projected by the model with 200-km resolution, indicates that the upward trend in these heat wave measures should become apparent in the early decades of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

2008 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1721-1733 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANNA M. MIKA ◽  
ROSS M. WEISS ◽  
OWEN OLFERT ◽  
REBECCA H. HALLETT ◽  
JONATHAN A. NEWMAN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Swede Midge

scholarly journals COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (8) ◽  
pp. 1023-1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bodas-Salcedo ◽  
M. J. Webb ◽  
S. Bony ◽  
H. Chepfer ◽  
J.-L. Dufresne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Coupled Modelling ◽  
Ipcc Report

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibility of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. In this article we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.

Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on wheat midge (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) in North America

2015 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
R.H. Elliott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Wheat Midge ◽  
Potential Impact

AbstractWheat midge, Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), Palaearctic in origin, is thought to have been introduced into North America in the early 1800s. It is a major pest of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum Linnaeus (Poaceae)), durum wheat (T. durum Desfontaines), triticale (X-Triticosecale), and, to a lesser extent, spring rye (Secale cereale Linnaeus (Poaceae)) throughout the northern Great Plains. Climate is the principal factor regulating the distribution and abundance of most insects. A bioclimate simulation model was developed to explain the current distribution and abundance of S. mosellana. The current distribution for North America, Europe, and Asia was consistent with model projections. General circulation model scenarios (CSIRO-MK 3.0 and MIROC-H) for the 2030 and 2070 time periods were applied to the bioclimate simulation model of S. mosellana to assess the potential impact of changing climates on their distribution and relative abundance. Potential changes to relative abundance and distribution were most sensitive to time period, as opposed to climate change scenario. Differences between the MIROC-H and CSIRO-MK 3.0 models were restricted to particular regions in North America. The study found that the range and abundance of S. mosellana, and associated crop risk, was predicted to expand in a northerly direction and contract across the present southern limits.

scholarly journals Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance ofMelanoplus sanguinipes(Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R. M. Weiss ◽  
D. Kriticos
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Model Scenarios

Climate is the dominant factor determining the distribution and abundance of most insect species. In recent years, the issue of climatic changes caused by human activities and the effects on agriculture has raised concern. General circulation model scenarios were applied to a bioclimatic model ofMelanoplus sanguinipesto assess the potential impact of global warming on its distribution and relative abundance. Native to North America and widely distributed,M. sanguinipesis one of the grasshopper species of the continent most responsible for economic damage to grain, oilseed, pulse, and forage crops. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated thatM. sanguinipeswould have increased range and relative abundance under the three general circulation model scenarios in more northern regions of North America. Conversely, model output predicted that the range of this crop pest could contract in regions where climate conditions became limiting.

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