A Predictive Approach to Simulate Possible Impacts of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector

2014 ◽  
Vol 05 (09) ◽  
Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 536
Author(s):  
Marinos Markou ◽  
Anastasios Michailidis ◽  
Efstratios Loizou ◽  
Stefanos A. Nastis ◽  
Dimitra Lazaridou ◽  
...  

Agriculture is highly dependent on climate change, and Cyprus especially is experiencing its impacts on agricultural production to a greater extent, mainly due to its geographical location. The adaptation of farming to the effects of global climate change may lead to the maximization of agricultural production, which is an important and desirable improvement. The main aim of this paper is to rank and quantify the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Cyprus, through a multi-round Delphi survey seeking a consensus agreement in a group of experts. A multidisciplinary group of 20 experts stated their willingness-to-pay for various impacts of climate change. By applying this method, the individual impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources were brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with cost values. The final cost impact estimate represents the total estimated cost of climate change in the agricultural sector. According to the results, this cost reaches EUR 25.08 million annually for the agricultural sector, and EUR 366.48 million for the whole country. Therefore, it is expected that in the seven-year programming period 2014–2020 the total cost of climate change on agriculture ranges from EUR 176 to EUR 2565 million. The most significant impacts are due to the increasing level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems.


2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 95-115
Author(s):  
Dorota Michalak

Climate change is one of the greatest contemporary threats to our planet’s environmental, social and economic condition. It is accompanied by massive changes in life support systems on Earth, where its far‑reaching effects will be felt in the upcoming decades. The development of a national adaptation policy (strategy and/or plan) serves as an instrument that provides the necessary framework for adaptation by coordinating the consideration of climate change across relevant sectors, geographical scales, and levels of decision making. The purpose of this paper is to compare the degree of influence of climate change on the economy of the Eastern European Union and compare national strategies for adaptation to climate change in selected countries of Western Europe and Poland. The study shows that countries bearing the brunt of the negative impacts of climate change are Cyprus, Malta, Bulgaria and Poland. These countries recorded the highest climate change index, the greatest losses in terms of estimated GDP, household welfare, land losses, and lower incomes in the agricultural and tourism sectors. With appropriate adaptation measures, countries such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia can take advantage of the future changes in weather conditions. A shift in the productivity of the agricultural sector and tourism from south to north can be noted.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace Tan

There is widespread evidence that countries in the tropical regions especially the less developed countries will be most affected by the impacts of climate change and global warming. Unfortunately, these countries are highly dependent on agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate change, thereby threatening food security and economic development in the region. Interestingly, agriculture is one of the main contributors to the atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is important that actions taken to adapt to climate change do not undermine the effectiveness of mitigation strategies that impact the agricultural sector. The present study investigates the effects of mitigation and adaptation strategies on the impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector in Northern Philippines and identifies where synergies or conflicts between the two approaches may arise. Further analysis of the selected strategies suggests that one or more adaptation strategies may be ideal to achieve the maximum benefits.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Adjei

Climate change is unequivocal and nothing hides itself from its negative repercussions. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to be impacted due to their low adaptive capacities and geographic position. Unfavourable weather trends coupled with climatic variations will have adverse effect on agricultural sector which is the main source of livelihood to rural households on the continent. This literature review article assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in Africa. The lives of several in Africa cling on agriculture as it supports majority of the population. However, since over 90 percent of agriculture system in the region depends on rainfall, livelihoods of the citizens on the continent have been hit hard due to rising temperature, erratic rainfall and extreme weather conditions.


Author(s):  
Hoang Luu Thu Thuy

Assessing the level of socio-economic vulnerability focuses on the degree of different impacts due to the threats of climate change.The variables of the vulnerability function is a set of indicators.In the process of impact, differentindicatorshave different roles, expressed by the weight of indicators. The selected set of indicator includes 20 indicators. The weights of these indicators are calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process with the support of Expert Choice software.The results show that the indicators related to natural disasters in the exposure variable, indicators related to crop areas in sensitive variables and indicators related to the prevention and mitigation of adverse impacts of Climate change and natural disasters play the most important role in assessing the vulnerability.The results of assessing the level of vulnerability caused by the impacts of climate change and the natural disasters of the indicators show that: 18 out of 20 districts in the province have medium level of vulnerability.Particularly, in the two districts of Tuong Duong and Thanh Chuong,due to thehigh impact of climate change and natural disastersin combination with the low capacity of adaptation in the agricultural sector, the synthetic vulnerability is assessed at a high level.  


1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-136
Author(s):  
D M Alden

In this paper, the ‘extensive averaged spatial-ecologic’ approach for assessing the direct impacts of climate change on international agricultural production is developed. The approach allows the temporal impacts of climate change to be determined, measured in terms of the degree of adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change. Use is made of a world agricultural commodity markets model, constructed with the static World Policy Simulation modelling framework, to determine the combined direct and indirect temporal impacts of an ‘enhanced greenhouse effect’ climate scenario.


2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (7) ◽  
pp. 3761-3773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Deschênes ◽  
Michael Greenstone

Fisher et al. (2012)––henceforth, FHRS––have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper, Deschênes and Greenstone (2007), henceforth, DG. We acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes. We are grateful to FHRS for uncovering them. We hope that this Reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the US agricultural sector.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document