Modified Maternally-Derived-Immunity Susceptible Infectious Recovered (MSIR) Model of Infectious Disease: Existence of Equilibrium and Basic Reproduction Number

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
SA Somma ◽  
NI Akinwande ◽  
P Gana ◽  
S Abdulrahaman ◽  
TT Ashezua
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Existence Of Equilibrium

The basic reproduction number

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odo Diekmann ◽  
Hans Heesterbeek ◽  
Tom Britton
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Infectious Disease Epidemiology ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The basic reproduction number (or ratio) R₀ is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. It is among the quantities most urgently estimated for infectious diseases in outbreak situations, and its value provides insight when designing control interventions for established infections. From a theoretical point of view R₀ plays a vital role in the analysis of, and consequent insight from, infectious disease models. There is hardly a paper on dynamic epidemiological models in the literature where R₀ does not play a role. R₀ is defined as the average number of new cases of an infection caused by one typical infected individual, in a population consisting of susceptibles only. This chapter shows how R₀ can be characterized mathematically and provides detailed examples of its calculation in terms of parameters of epidemiological models, culminating in a set of algorithms (or “recipes”) for the calculation for compartmental epidemic systems.

scholarly journals Threshold parameters for a model of epidemic spread among households and workplaces

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (40) ◽  
pp. 979-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Pellis ◽  
N. M. Ferguson ◽  
C. Fraser
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Threshold Parameter ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Infectious Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The basic reproduction number R 0 is one of the most important concepts in modern infectious disease epidemiology. However, for more realistic and more complex models than those assuming homogeneous mixing in the population, other threshold quantities can be defined that are sometimes more useful and easily derived in terms of model parameters. In this paper, we present a model for the spread of a permanently immunizing infection in a population socially structured into households and workplaces/schools, and we propose and discuss a new household-to-household reproduction number R H for it. We show how R H overcomes some of the limitations of a previously proposed threshold parameter, and we highlight its relationship with the effort required to control an epidemic when interventions are targeted at randomly selected households.

scholarly journals The long-term dynamics of tuberculosis and other diseases with long serial intervals: implications of and for changing reproduction numbers

1998 ◽  
Vol 121 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. VYNNYCKY ◽  
P. E. M. FINE
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Net Reproduction ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The net and basic reproduction numbers are among the most widely-applied concepts in infectious disease epidemiology. A net reproduction number (the average number of secondary infectious cases resulting from each case in a given population) of above 1 is conventionally associated with an increase in incidence; the basic reproduction number (defined analogously for a ‘totally susceptible’ population) provides a standard measure of the ‘transmission potential’ of an infection. Using a model of the epidemiology of tuberculosis in England and Wales since 1900, we demonstrate that these measures are difficult to apply if disease can follow reinfection, and that they lose their conventional interpretations if important epidemiological parameters, such as the rate of contact between individuals, change over the time interval between successive cases in a chain of transmission (the serial interval).The net reproduction number for tuberculosis in England and Wales appears to have been approximately 1 from 1900 until 1950, despite concurrent declines in morbidity and mortality rates, and it declined rapidly in the second half of this century. The basic reproduction number declined from about 3 in 1900, reached 2 by 1950, and first fell below 1 in about 1960. Reductions in effective contact between individuals over this period, measured in terms of the average number of individuals to whom each case could transmit the infection, meant that the conventional basic reproduction number measure (which does not consider subsequent changes in epidemiological parameters) for a given year failed to reflect the ‘actual transmission potential’ of the infection. This latter property is better described by a variant of the conventional measure which takes secular trends in contact into account. These results are relevant for the interpretation of trends in any infectious disease for which epidemiological parameters change over time periods comparable to the infectious period, incubation period or serial interval.

scholarly journals Graphs with specified degree distributions, simple epidemics, and local vaccination strategies

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (04) ◽  
pp. 922-948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Britton ◽  
Svante Janson ◽  
Anders Martin-Löf
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Structure ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Degree Distribution ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Consider a random graph, having a prespecified degree distribution F, but other than that being uniformly distributed, describing the social structure (friendship) in a large community. Suppose that one individual in the community is externally infected by an infectious disease and that the disease has its course by assuming that infected individuals infect their not yet infected friends independently with probability p. For this situation, we determine the values of R 0, the basic reproduction number, and τ0, the asymptotic final size in the case of a major outbreak. Furthermore, we examine some different local vaccination strategies, where individuals are chosen randomly and vaccinated, or friends of the selected individuals are vaccinated, prior to the introduction of the disease. For the studied vaccination strategies, we determine R v , the reproduction number, and τ v , the asymptotic final proportion infected in the case of a major outbreak, after vaccinating a fraction v.

scholarly journals Estimation of Hospital Potential Capacity and Basic Reproduction Number

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Fei Wang ◽  
Linhua Wang ◽  
Peng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Medical Resource ◽  
Population Dynamic Model ◽  
Potential Capacity ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In order to reflect the population covered by institutional medical services, the concept of hospital potential capacity is proposed and a formula for its estimation is developed based on a population dynamic model. Using the collected data on hospital outpatient and inpatient services and the demographical information on Chongqing as an example, the demand for medical resource allocation in Chongqing is dynamically estimated. Moreover, the proposed formula is also useful in the estimation of the basic reproduction number in epidemiology. The results can be contributed to the improvement of decision-making in the allocation of medical resources and the evaluation of the interventions and control efforts of the infectious disease.

scholarly journals Stability in a Ross epidemic model with road diffusion

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 2840-2857
Author(s):  
Xiaomei Bao ◽  
◽  
Canrong Tian ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Behavior ◽  
Upper And Lower Solutions ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Reaction Diffusion Equations ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

<abstract><p>Reaction-diffusion equations have been used to describe the dynamical behavior of epidemic models, where the spreading of infectious disease has the same speed in every direction. A natural question is how to describe the dynamical system when the spreading of infectious disease is directed diffusion. We introduce the road diffusion into a Ross epidemic model which describes the spread of infected Mosquitoes and humans. With the comparison principle the system is proved to have a unique global solution. By the approach of upper and lower solutions, we show that the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is lower than 1 while the endemic equilibrium asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than 1.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Graphs with specified degree distributions, simple epidemics, and local vaccination strategies

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 922-948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Britton ◽  
Svante Janson ◽  
Anders Martin-Löf
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Structure ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Degree Distribution ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Consider a random graph, having a prespecified degree distribution F, but other than that being uniformly distributed, describing the social structure (friendship) in a large community. Suppose that one individual in the community is externally infected by an infectious disease and that the disease has its course by assuming that infected individuals infect their not yet infected friends independently with probability p. For this situation, we determine the values of R0, the basic reproduction number, and τ0, the asymptotic final size in the case of a major outbreak. Furthermore, we examine some different local vaccination strategies, where individuals are chosen randomly and vaccinated, or friends of the selected individuals are vaccinated, prior to the introduction of the disease. For the studied vaccination strategies, we determine Rv, the reproduction number, and τv, the asymptotic final proportion infected in the case of a major outbreak, after vaccinating a fraction v.

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