FDA-iRISK—A Comparative Risk Assessment System for Evaluating and Ranking Food-Hazard Pairs: Case Studies on Microbial Hazards

2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

Development of a probabilistic model for quantitative risk assessment of COVID-19 in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150069
Author(s):  
Paulo Gabriel Santos Campos de Siqueira ◽  
Alexandre Calumbi Antunes de Oliveira ◽  
Heitor Oliveira Duarte ◽  
Márcio das Chagas Moura
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health System ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
The Other ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Excessive Number

We have developed a probabilistic model to quantify the risks of COVID-19 explosion in Brazil, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Latin America. By explosion, we mean an excessive number of new infections that would overload the public health system. We made predictions from July 12th to Oct 10th, 2020 for various containment strategies, including business as usual, stay at home (SAH) for young and elderly, flight restrictions among regions, gradual resumption of business and the compulsory wearing of masks. They indicate that: if a SAH strategy were sustained, there would be a negligible risk of explosion and the public health system would not be overloaded. For the other containment strategies, the scenario that combines the gradual resumption of business with the mandatory wearing of masks would be the most effective, reducing risk to considerable category. Should this strategy is applied together with the investment in more Intensive Care Unit beds, risk could be reduced to negligible levels. A sensitivity analysis sustained that risks would be negligible if SAH measures were adopted thoroughly.

scholarly journals The Public Health Gains Had Cigarette Companies Chosen to Sell Very Low Nicotine Cigarettes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T Levy ◽  
K Michael Cummings ◽  
Bryan W Heckman ◽  
Yameng Li ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Nicotine Content ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Health Gains ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Life Years Lost ◽  
Technical Capability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Introduction The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed lowering the nicotine content of cigarettes to a minimally addictive level to increase smoking cessation and reduce initiation. This study has two aims: (1) to determine when cigarette manufacturers had the technical capability to reduce cigarette nicotine content and (2) to estimate the lost public health benefits of implementing a standard in 1965, 1975, or 1985. Methods To determine the technical capability of cigarette companies, we reviewed public patents and internal cigarette company business records using the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents. To evaluate the impact of a very low nicotine content cigarette (VLNC) standard on smoking attributable deaths (SADs) and life-years lost (LYLs), we applied a validated (CISNET) model that uses past smoking data, along with estimates of the potential impact of VLNCs derived from expert elicitation. Results Cigarette manufacturers recognized that cigarettes were deadly and addictive before 1964. Manufacturers have had the technical capability to lower cigarette nicotine content for decades. Our model projected that a standard implemented in 1965 could have averted 21 million SADs (54% reduction) and 272 million LYLs (64% reduction) from 1965 to 2064, a standard implemented in 1975 could have averted 18.9 million SADs and 245.4 million LYLs from 1975 to 2074, and a standard implemented in 1985 could have averted 16.3 million SADs and 211.5 million LYLs from 1985 to 2084. Conclusions Millions of premature deaths could have been averted if companies had only sold VLNCs decades ago. FDA should act immediately to implement a VLNC standard. Implications Prior research has shown that a mandated reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes could reduce the prevalence of smoking and improve public health. Here we report that cigarette manufacturers have had the ability to voluntarily implement such a standard for decades. We use a well-validated model to demonstrate that millions of smoking attributable deaths and life-years lost would have been averted if the industry had implemented such a standard.

scholarly journals TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT (TERA) - RUSSIAN INFORMATION-FORECASTING SYSTEMS, EXPERIENCE OF APPLICATION FOR HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 96 (11) ◽  
pp. 1088-1090
Author(s):  
Sergey M. Novikov ◽  
M. V. Fokin ◽  
T. A. Shashina ◽  
N. S. Dodina
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Chemical Compounds ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Environmental Objects ◽  
The Impact

There is presented a unique Russian computer information and predictive TERA (Tools for Environmental Risk Assessment) system aimed to carry on studies of the assessment of health risk related to the impact of chemical compounds that pollute the various environmental objects. There are considered main calculation modules of specialized databases, as well as the main identification table - TERAbase, allowing to observe all the methodological requirements and recommendations provided by the sanitary legislation, for doing so and for the examination of scientific and practical work on risk assessment to public health, accreditation and certification for risk assessment bodies. There is indicated the direction of solving the problem of information support for risk assessment work for health.

2006 American College of Toxicology Distinguished Service Award Lecture: Has Quantitative Risk Assessment Been of Benefit to the Science of Toxicology?

2007 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph V. Rodricks
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chemical Toxicity ◽  
Public Health Importance ◽  
The Public ◽  
Societal Pressure ◽  
High Assurance ◽  
Reliable Knowledge

Quantitative approaches to evaluating the risks of chemical toxicity entered the lives of toxicologists in the mid-1970s, and the continuing interaction of toxicology and risk assessment has been of benefit to both disciplines. I will summarize the origins of the interaction, the reasons for it, and the difficult course it has followed. In doing so, I will set the stage for a discussion of how the type of thinking that informs risk-based decision-making provides important benefits to the continuing development of the science of toxicology. There will continue to be societal pressure for the development of reliable knowledge about the public health importance of the enormous variety of chemical exposures we all incur, from conception to death. Risk assessment is the framework used to organize and convey that knowledge. Toxicology is the principle discipline used to give scientific substance to that framework. Social acceptance of every manifestation of the modern chemical age requires high assurance that the public health is not threatened, and that assurance depends upon continued improvements in these two mutually dependant disciplines.

scholarly journals Impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic on public health workers in the Netherlands

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Vinck ◽  
L Isken ◽  
M Hooiveld ◽  
M C Trompenaars ◽  
J IJzermans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
H1n1 Pandemic ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Public Health Workers ◽  
The Impact

A cross-sectional study was undertaken to analyse the impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic on frontline public health workers in the Netherlands and to consider its implications for future pandemics. A structured, self-administered questionnaire was made available online (26 March to 26 May 2010) for frontline public health workers employed by the communicable disease departments of the public health services in the Netherlands (n=302). A total of 166 questionnaires (55%) were completed. The majority of respondents reported an increased workload, perceived as too busy (117 respondents, 70.5%) or extreme (13 respondents, 7.8%). Most respondents were not anxious about becoming infected (only seven were regularly concerned). The overall compliance with the control measures was good. The case definition was strictly applied by 110 of the 166 respondents (66%); 56 of 141 (39.7%) consistently consulted the Preparedness and Response Unit within a centralised assessment system, while 68 of 141 (48.2%) consulted the unit only at the beginning of the pandemic. Of 145 respondents with available data, 128 (88.3%) always used personal protective equipment. Reported adherence to the advice to discuss the various isolation measures with patients and their contacts was between 71% and 98.7%. Our study shows that the surveyed frontline public health workers considered the workload to be high during the first 3.5 months of the pandemic and their level of anxiety about becoming infected was reported to be low. During the pandemic, these workers were able to accommodate what they considered to be an excessive workload, even though initially their assignments were unfamiliar to them.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of individual and collective compliance with infection control measures for ethical public health policy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Roberts ◽  
Euzebiusz Jamrozik ◽  
George S. Heriot ◽  
Michael J. Selgelid ◽  
Joel C. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infectious Individual ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCompliance with infectious disease control measures can benefit public health but be burdensome for individuals. This raises ethical questions regarding the value of the public health benefit created by individual and collective compliance. Answering such questions requires estimating the total benefit from an individual’s compliance, and how much of that benefit is experienced by others. This is complicated by “overdetermination” in infectious disease transmission: each susceptible person may have contact with more than one infectious individual, such that preventing one transmission may have no net effect if the same susceptible person is infected later. This article explores mathematical techniques enabling quantification of the impacts of individuals and groups complying with three types of public health measures: quarantine of arrivals, isolation of infected individuals, and vaccination/prophylaxis. The models presented suggest that these interventions all exhibit synergy: each intervention becomes more effective on a per-individual basis as the number complying increases, because overdetermination of outcomes is reduced, Thus additional compliance reduces transmission to a greater degree.

scholarly journals Green Deal as a Climate Changes Dam on the Road to Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Jevtic ◽  
C Bouland
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Clinical Medicine ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Road ◽  
National Public Health ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Public health professionals (PHP) have a dual task in climate change. They should persuade their colleagues in clinical medicine of the importance of all the issues covered by the GD. The fact that the health sector contributes to the overall emissions of 4.4% speaks to the lack of awareness within the health sector itself. The issue of providing adequate infrastructure for the health sector is essential. Strengthening the opportunities and development of the circular economy within healthcare is more than just a current issue. The second task of PHP is targeting the broader population. The public health mission is being implemented, inter alia, through numerous activities related to environmental monitoring and assessment of the impact on health. GD should be a roadmap for priorities and actions in public health, bearing in mind: an ambitious goal of climate neutrality, an insistence on clean, affordable and safe energy, a strategy for a clean and circular economy. GD provides a framework for the development of sustainable and smart transport, the development of green agriculture and policies from field to table. It also insists on biodiversity conservation and protection actions. The pursuit of zero pollution and an environment free of toxic chemicals, as well as incorporating sustainability into all policies, is also an indispensable part of GD. GD represents a leadership step in the global framework towards a healthier future and comprises all the non-EU members as well. The public health sector should consider the GD as an argument for achieving goals at national levels, and align national public health policies with the goals of this document. There is a need for stronger advocacy of health and public-health interests along with incorporating sustainability into all policies. Achieving goals requires the education process for healthcare professionals covering all of topics of climate change, energy and air pollution to a much greater extent than before.

Educated Guesses: Health Risk Assessment in Environmental Impact Statements

1990 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-427
Author(s):  
Pamela D. Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
National Environmental Policy Act ◽  
The Public ◽  
Environmental Impact Statements ◽  
National Environmental ◽  
Scientific Tool ◽  
Predicted Risk

Environmental pollution threatens public health. The search for solutions has advanced the frontiers of science and law. Efforts to protect the environment and public health begin with describing potential adverse consequences of human activities and characterizing the predicted risk. The National Environmental Policy Act requires the preparation of environmental impact statements to describe the effects of proposed federal projects and provide information for agency decisionmakers and the public.Risks to public health are particularly difficult to quantify because of uncertainty about the relation between exposure to environmental contamination and disease. Risk assessment is the current scientific tool to present estimates of risk. The methodology has created controversy, however, when underlying assumptions and uncertainties are not clearly presented. Critics caution that the methodology is vulnerable to bias. This Note evaluates the use of risk assessment in the environmental impact statement process and offers recommendations to ensure informed decisions.

scholarly journals Effect of COVID-19 on childhood Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection in Chengdu, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Yijie Huang ◽  
Tao Ai ◽  
Jun Luo ◽  
Hanmin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mycoplasma Pneumoniae ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Serum Antibody ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Western China ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a change in the incidence and transmission of respiratory pathogens was observed. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiologic characteristics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection among children in Chengdu, one of the largest cities of western China. Method M. pneumoniae infection was diagnosed in 33,345 pediatric patients with respiratory symptoms at the Chengdu Women’s & Children’s Central Hospital between January 2017 and December 2020, based on a serum antibody titer of ≥1:160 measured by the passive agglutination assay. Differences in infection rates were examined by sex, age, and temporal distribution. Results Two epidemic outbreaks occurred between October-December 2017 and April-December 2019, and two infection peaks were detected in the second and fourth quarters of 2017, 2018, and 2019. Due to the public health response to COVID-19, the number of positive M. pneumoniae cases significantly decreased in the second quarter of 2020. The number of M. pneumoniae infection among children aged 3–6 years was higher than that in other age groups. Conclusions Preschool children are more susceptible to M. pneumoniae infection and close contact appears to be the predominant factor favoring pathogen transmission. The public health response to COVID-19 can effectively control the transmission of M. pneumoniae.

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