The longer-term trend in real oil prices

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-57
Author(s):  
Georg Koopmann ◽  
Klaus Matthies ◽  
Beate Reszat
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Term Trend

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
James R. Chromy
Keyword(s):  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

What Does Rent Give to Federal Budget (on the Russia's Budget Dependence upon "Oil Dollars")

2004 ◽  
pp. 51-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sharipova ◽  
I. Tcherkashin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Resource Rent ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government

Federal tax revenues from the main sectors of the Russian economy after the 1998 crisis are examined in the article. Authors present the structure of revenues from these sectors by main taxes for 1999-2003 and prospects for 2004. Emphasis is given to an increasing dependence of budget on revenues from oil and gas industries. The share of proceeds from these sectors has reached 1/3 of total federal revenues. To explain this fact world oil prices dynamics and changes in tax legislation in Russia are considered. Empirical results show strong dependence of budget revenues on oil prices. The analysis of changes in tax legislation in oil and gas industry shows that the government has managed to redistribute resource rent in favor of the state.

The Instruments of the Stabilization Fund: The Experience and Prospects

2004 ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mst. Afanasiev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
The World

Сreation of the stabilization fund has become the main feature of the Russian federal budget for 2004. This instrument provides the opportunity to reduce the dependence of budget incomes on the fluctuations of oil prices. The accepted model does not consider the world experience in building of such funds as the "funds for future generations", and the increase of other revenues from the growing oil prices as well. That can lead to shortening and immobilization of the financial basis of economic growth.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Oil Prices: Limits to Growth and the Depth of Falling

2006 ◽  
pp. 28-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Production Factor ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Limits To Growth ◽  
Technological Basis ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Output Ratio

This article deals with the determination of future oil prices. The approach used is based on the evaluation of purchasing power limits and allows to put the limits to monopolistic price setting. Several important findings are formulated: going beyond the upper thresholds of purchasing power stipulates negative relationship between energy costs and GDP growth rates, and this brings the dynamics to energy demand to price elasticity. This approach is also based on what the author calls the economics of constants and variables, i.e. on the existence of very stable macroeconomic proportions, which may be observed throughout the whole period of statistical observations (over 200 years). It provides grounds for two conclusions. First, the upper limit of energy costs to the gross output ratio is determined by the least acceptable profitability. Second, the theoretical postulate on substantial production factors substitution used in the production functions theory may be incorrect. In reality, the change of the economy technological basis leads to the substitution of low quality production factor by the same factor with a higher quality. Application of this approach brings the basis for predicting oil prices for 2006-2008.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Vo Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Before And After

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

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