The Impact of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Stock Prices: Evidence From China

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

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Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies ◽

10.24311/jabes/2015.22.4.02 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 22 (04) ◽

pp. 26-50

Author(s):

Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽

Huong Pham Hoang Cam

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Error Correction ◽

Budget Deficit ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Domestic Credit ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

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Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil and Stock Prices in India: Before And After the Subprime Financial Crisis 2008

GIS Business ◽

10.26643/gis.v14i6.11683 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (6) ◽

pp. 96-104

Author(s):

P. Sakthivel ◽

S. Rajaswaminathan ◽

R. Renuka ◽

N. R.Vembu

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Energy Index ◽

Data Set ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Long Run ◽

Before And After

This paper empirically discovered the inter-linkages between stock and crude oil prices before and after the subprime financial crisis 2008 by using Johansan co-integration and Granger causality techniques to explore both long and short- run relationships. The whole data set of Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex, BSE energy index and oil prices are divided into two periods; before crisis (from February 15, 2005 to December31, 2007) and after crisis (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018) are collected and analyzed. The results discovered that there is one-way causal relationship from crude oil prices to Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex and BSE energy index but not other way around in both periods. However, a bidirectional causality relationship between BSE Energy index and crude oil prices during post subprime financial crisis 2008. The co-integration results suggested that the absence of long run relationship between crude oil prices and market indices of BSE Sensex, BSE energy index, Nifty index and Nifty energy index before and after subprime financial crisis 2008.

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LONG RUN ASSOCIATION OF STOCK PRICES AND CRUDE OIL PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SAUDI ARABIA

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ◽

10.32479/ijeep.8881 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 124-131

Author(s):

Abdul Rahman

Keyword(s):

Saudi Arabia ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Long Run

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THE EFFECT OF TRANSFERING ISRAEL CAPITAL CITY TO JERUSALEM TOWARD INDONESIA MACRO ECONOMY

EKUITAS (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan) ◽

10.24034/j25485024.y2019.v3.i2.4111 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 260-282

Author(s):

Liliek Nur Sulistiyowati

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Donald Trump ◽

State Budget ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

The Impact

United States President Donald Trump has just issued a controversial policy by giving Jerusalem recognition as the capital of Israel. This controversial policy triggered a strong reaction from a number of countries, especially Islamic countries including Indonesia. Indonesia through President Jokowidodo strongly condemned the policy of moving the Israeli capital to Jerusalem because it would disrupt political and security stability in the Middle East region. In the midst of the political impact caused by President Donald Trump's policies also affected the global economy. The world stock exchanges reacted immediately with the existence of these policies, one of which was the fall of the stock market index in Japan and South Korea due to investor concerns. The impact of the policies implemented by President Donald Trump also affected the Indonesian economy. This policy will affect the financial markets and capital markets in Indonesia. Trump's policy triggered an increase in the US $ exchange rate against the currencies of other countries including the Indonesian currency. Some of the negative effects on the Indonesian economy were the increase in world crude oil prices. Indonesia is currently no longer an oil exporting country, so that with the increase in world crude oil prices it will provide a fiscal burden in the State Budget (APBN). Fuel subsidies in the state budget will increase along with the increase in world crude oil prices that occur. In addition to the impact on the rupiah exchange rate against the US $, Donald Trump's policy also affects the inflation rate and the SBI interest rate. Through 2018, Bank Indonesia has raised the SBI interest rate by 150 basis points (bps) or 1.5%. The BI Governor explained that one reason for changing the benchmark interest rate was US monetary policy. The determination of high SBI interest rates also had an effect on reducing inflationary pressures. This study aims to look at the influence of President Donald Trump's policies regarding the transfer of the Israeli capital to Jerusalem against Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators are seen from 3 variables, such as the inflation rate, SBI interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate against US $ Key words : Donald Trump, inflation, SBI interest rates, exchange rates / exchange rates

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GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE AND DOMESTIC FOOD COMMODITY PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan ◽

10.30908/bilp.v14i1.406 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 95-120

Author(s):

Tiara Kencana Ayu

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Local Food ◽

Price Change ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

The Impact ◽

Food Commodity

Abstrak Penelitian untuk menganalisis hubungan antara harga minyak dunia dan harga komoditi pangan di pasar domestik masih jarang ditemukan. Dengan membuat Model Panel Data dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia pada tahun 2010-2017, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi pengaruh perubahan harga minyak dunia terhadap beberapa harga komoditi pangan lokal (kedelai,import, kedelai lokal, beras lokal, dan jagung lokal). Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa harga minyak dunia dapat memengaruhi harga pangan lokal di Indonesia melalui tingginya biaya pengiriman pada aktivitas impor. Selain itu, harga komoditi pangan dunia juga terbukti dapat memengaruhi harga seluruh komoditi pangan lokal yang diteliti, yang mengimplikasikan bahwa harga komoditi pangan di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh kondisi pasar internasional. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan masukan bagi pembuat kebijakan di Indonesia untuk mempertimbangkan perubahan harga minyak dunia dan harga komoditi global dalam menstabilkan harga komoditi lokal di Indonesia, terutama komoditi yang diimpor. Abstract Globally, studies examining the nexus between global crude oil prices and food commodity prices in domestic markets are scant. Employing a panel data model of 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2010 - 2017, this study investigates the impact of global crude oil’s price change on some local food commodity prices (imported soybean, local soybean, local rice, and local maize). Previous studies found that local food commodity prices in some countries were not affected by global crude oil prices; however, this study, by controlling other factors which could affect local commodity prices, finds different results. This study’s findings indicate that global crude oil prices could affect Indonesia’s local commodity prices due to higher shipping costs in import activity. In addition, global commodity prices are also proved to affect all commodities examined in this study, which implies that local food commodity prices in Indonesia are influenced by the international market. This study provides input to policymakers in Indonesia to consider the movement of global crude oil prices and global commodity prices in stabilizing local food commodity prices in Indonesia, especially the imported commodities. JEL Classification: F15, O13, Q11

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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, And Inflation Expectations In South Africa

International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) ◽

10.19030/iber.v14i4.9351 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 587

Author(s):

Kin Sibanda ◽

Progress Hove ◽

Genius Murwirapachena

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Policy Framework ◽

Series Data ◽

Inflation Expectations ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

The Impact

Informed inflation expectations facilitate the extemporisation of a proper monetary policy framework that allows for the achievement of economic objectives, among them price stability. This study used the vector autoregression model to assess the impact of crude oil prices and exchange rates on inflation expectations in South Africa. Monthly time-series data for the period July 2002 to March 2013, obtained from the electronic database of the South African Reserve Bank were used. The study obtained statistically significant results suggesting that both crude oil prices and the exchange rates have a positive impact on inflation expectations in South Africa.

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