scholarly journals The African Continental Free Trade Area and Its Employment-Generation Potentials in Nigeria’s Industrial Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
Oziengbe Scott Aigheyisi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Generation

The study empirically examines the employment generation potentials of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Nigeria’s industrial sector. The ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction modeling is employed for analysis of annual time series data covering the period 19912020. The study finds inter alia that the short run effect of expansion of intra-African trade (expected to result from the AfCFTA) on industrial sector employment is positive and statistically significant. The long run effect is also positive, but not statistically significant. It also finds that trade openness integration of the economy with the global market – significantly enhances employment generation in the nation’s industrial sector in the long run; though the short run effect is negative and significant. These suggest that the country’s membership of the AfCFTA and implementation of policies aimed at (cautiously) deepening the integration of the economy with the global market should be considered as supplementary avenues to achieving (sustainable) employment generation in the nation’s industrial sector in the short-and long-run. Other evidence-based policy recommendations are discussed.

scholarly journals DOES TRADE OPENNESS PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH? THE CASE OF SUDAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (Volume 2) ◽  
pp. 123-132
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Sudan. The study utilizes annual time series data from 1972 to 2019. The study adopts the unit root test. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model has been used as an estimation technique. The results indicate that trade openness has a positive significant impact on the economic growth in short run. However, the impact is negative in the long run. When the long-run and short-run elasticity were compared the trade-led growth hypothesis was not found. It can be argued that the country is specialized in production of low-quality products and exporting primary products therefore the economic growth is negatively affected by trade openness. Moreover, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis results provide evidence against the existence of the hypothesis indicating that the country is still below the desired level of income. The study suggests that a country should promote the industrial sector which will help to export manufactured products and therefore will increase the productivity.

Impact of Globalization on Industrial Development in Vietnam: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-22
Author(s):  
Van Nguyen Thi Cam
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on industrial development in Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2015. The paper tested the stationary, cointegration of time series data and utilized error correction modeling technique to determine the short-term relationships among industry value added, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade, exchange rate and reserves variables. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes industrial development and that Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization has positively and significantly impacted on the industrial development in Vietnam in the short run as well as in the long run. The results also indicate that foreign direct investment has had a massive effect on the development of the Vietnamese industrial sector in the long run. The study further reveals that balance of trade has affected industrial development positively in the long run. Moreover, the exchange rate was found to be positively influential toward industrial development in the long run but it has had a negative effect on the industrial sector in the short run. In addition, reserves have negatively affected industrial performance in the long run but have had an insignificant impact in the short run.

Trade Openness, Institutions and Industrial Growth in Pakistan: An Application of Bayer and Hanck Cointegration Test

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Farooq ◽  
A.R. Chaudhary ◽  
Ahmad Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Quality Of Institutions ◽  
Short Run

Per Capita Income and productivity of industrial sector are very low in developing nations including Pakistan as compared to developed nations. Three reasons have been mentioned in the literature for this difference; geographical differences, role of international trade and the quality of institutions.This study examines the short run and long run impacts of trade openness, and quality of institutions, on the growth of industrial sector of Pakistan, using time series data over the period of 1984-2013.TheCobb- Douglas production function has been augmented by adding quality of institutions, trade openness, and financial development variables to probe their impacts on the industrial growth. The most recently developed combined cointegration technique by Bayer and Hanck (2013) has been usedto check the cointegration among the variables. Long run empirical results show that trade openness, and quality of institutions positively contributes to the growth of industrial sector. These resultssuggest that better quality and well-functioning of the institutions is a pre requisites to boost the foreign trade, and the growth of industrial sector of Pakistan. Keywords: Trade Openness, Institutions, Industrial Growth, Pakistan

scholarly journals Financial Reforms and Industrial Sector Growth: Bound Testing Analysis for Pakistan

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahida Wizarat ◽  
Qazi Hye
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Financial Reforms ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Growth Bound

Financial Reforms and Industrial Sector Growth: Bound Testing Analysis for PakistanThis study investigates the relationship between the financial liberalization index and industrial sector growth for Pakistan. Annual time series data from 1971 to 2007 is used and ARDL bounds testing techniques are applied. In the short run both the financial liberalization index and the real interest rate speed up industrial sector growth. However, in the long run the financial liberalization index and real interest rate slow down industrial sector growth. The error correction terms indicate that 41% disequilibrium in the short run is adjusted every year in the long run.

scholarly journals THE NEXUS BETWEEN THEEXTERNAL SECTOR AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA, 1985 -2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1151-1160
Author(s):  
Leera Lenu Kpagih ◽  
◽  
Deekor Leelee N ◽  
Ezebunwo Nyeche ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Variable ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Impact

The interaction between different economies in the global market could have impact on their key economic variables. Hence, this study set out to examine the impact of the external sector on a key economic variable in Nigeria being Inflation. The study utilized time series data from 1985 to 2018 which was subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The next step was to subject the data to an ARDL cointegration test. The result showed that in the short run and long run external sector variables do not have any significant impact on inflation in Nigeria. The paper suggests that money supply and fiscal policy should be used to control inflation in Nigeria.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

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