Impact of Globalization on Industrial Development in Vietnam: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-22
Author(s):  
Van Nguyen Thi Cam
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on industrial development in Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2015. The paper tested the stationary, cointegration of time series data and utilized error correction modeling technique to determine the short-term relationships among industry value added, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade, exchange rate and reserves variables. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes industrial development and that Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization has positively and significantly impacted on the industrial development in Vietnam in the short run as well as in the long run. The results also indicate that foreign direct investment has had a massive effect on the development of the Vietnamese industrial sector in the long run. The study further reveals that balance of trade has affected industrial development positively in the long run. Moreover, the exchange rate was found to be positively influential toward industrial development in the long run but it has had a negative effect on the industrial sector in the short run. In addition, reserves have negatively affected industrial performance in the long run but have had an insignificant impact in the short run.

scholarly journals An ECM Approach for Long Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Output Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Currency exchange rate is an important aspect in modern economy which indicates the strength of domestic currency with respect to international currency. This study uses 42 years’ (1972 to 2013) time series data for Bangladesh in order to empirically determine whether the real exchange rate has significant impact on output growth for Bangladesh by using error correction model (ECM).The time series econometrics properties of the data series have been thoroughly investigated to apply ECM approach. The empirical evidence suggests mixed results; in the short run low exchange rate has positive significant effect while in the long run output growth is positively affected high exchange rate pass through.Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 63(2):105-110, 2015 (July)

Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 32-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dat Tho Tran ◽  
Van Thi Cam Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2014. The paper tested the stationary cointegration of time series data and utilized the error correction modeling technique to determine the short run relationships among economic growth, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade and exchange rate variables. Then, the long run relationship between economic growth and the variables representing economic integration were estimated by ordinary least square. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes economic growth and Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization had positively and significantly impacted the economic growth in Vietnam. The results also indicated that economic globalization had a significantly positive effect on economic growth in the period examined. The study further revealed that foreign direct investment and the exchange rate affect economic growth positively whereas balance of trade affects economic growth negatively.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND GDP IN CHINA, INDIA AND MEXICO

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (05) ◽  
pp. 1059-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANIL K. LAL
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Individual Time Series

This paper examines the short and long-run relationships between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade Openness and GDP in China, India and Mexico from 1980 to 2011. Based on the properties of individual time series data, the paper estimates the VAR or VECM of the three variables to determine short and long-run causal relationships. The results confirm the existence of long-run causal relationships between the three variables for China and Mexico. The results also point to sharp differences in short-run causal relationships in the three countries and several plausible explanations consistent with the findings are offered.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

Asset Quality and Deposit Money Banks Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Mbatabbey Joy Ogboru
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asset Quality

This study investigate the relationship between asset quality and deposit money banks performance in Nigeria over a period of 30 years ranging from 1986 to 2016, utilizing time series data collected from the Nigeria deposit insurance corporation annual reports and accounts, CBN financial stability report and CBN statistically bulletin for various years. The variables of study includes return on asset (ROA) proxy for Deposit Money Bank performance in Nigeria, ratio of non-performing loan to total loan (NPL), ratio of liquid assets to total assets (LAT) and ratio of liquid assets to short term liabilities (LAS) as measures of asset quality. The study utilizes both the descriptive and econometric techniques to analyze the time series data. The result shows that there is a short run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Also, the co-integration result reveals the presence of a long run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria while the granger causality result shows evidence of causality between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Based on this we conclude by saying that maintaining sound assets quality position is critical to the long term performance, survival and sustainability of DMBs in Nigeria.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN ARDL TO CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Nooreen Mujahid ◽  
Azeema Begum ◽  
Muhammad Noman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores the relationship between export growth and economic growth in the case of Pakistan by employing time series data for the period 1971- 2013. This study has incorporated variables like GDP (Gross Domestic Product) exports, imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We have applied ARDL to co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). The study provides the evidence of stationary time series variables, the existence of the long - run relationship between them, and the result of ECM revealed short rum equilibrium adjustment. Pakistan has many options for enhancing the export of the country. There is a dire need to minimize trade barriers and restrictions such as import and export quotas. Government of Pakistan had introduced Structural Reforms for liberalization, privatization and de-regulation which will actually shifted the trend of trade at a significant level in the end of 1980s. Low levels of interest rate can help exportable industries in which investments are needed to promote and enhance the exports. Stable exchange rate is the first and the best policy option for increasing the export and managing the imports. There is a cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and FDI. Pakistan has to immediately find the policies and processes that support logistics and facilitates trade.

scholarly journals Relationship between Crime and Economic Conditions in Sindh: A Time Series Approach from 1984-2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. p1
Author(s):  
Irfan Hussain Khan ◽  
Khan Alyas ◽  
Nighat Hanif ◽  
Ansa Zaiba
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Reported Crime

Using the time series data from 1984 to 2015, this study attempts to explore Sindh economic situation and the relationship between criminal activities. Three Variables are used for economic conditions, such as crime rate, dropout ratio and unemployment. We check their relationship with the reported crime. Enhanced Dicky Fuller test for unit root process indicates that all variables are stationary at the first level. For long-term relationships, Johanson-Cointegration technology has been applied. The results of the statistical process show that dropout ratio and unemployment are closely related to crime.VCM has been applied to check the short-run relationship between the variables. VCM results suggested that the model we estimate is divergent. Divergent model mean that there is no adjustment from long-run to short-run between variables as they are going away, if we increase the lag length, the model can become divergent but due to crime data unavailability it was difficult to increase the observations and the lags as well. Study gives evidence that economic conditions have significant impact on crimes and increasing dropout which is Positive related with crime in Sindh. It is also shown that the crime is influenced by economic condition. Government is capable to reduce that threat through effective target policies and legislation. The empirical results of this study will enhance understanding of the role of public sector policy formation in promoting national productive capacity by uplifting the positive effect of the Sindh economy.

scholarly journals The African Continental Free Trade Area and Its Employment-Generation Potentials in Nigeria’s Industrial Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
Oziengbe Scott Aigheyisi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Generation

The study empirically examines the employment generation potentials of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Nigeria’s industrial sector. The ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction modeling is employed for analysis of annual time series data covering the period 19912020. The study finds inter alia that the short run effect of expansion of intra-African trade (expected to result from the AfCFTA) on industrial sector employment is positive and statistically significant. The long run effect is also positive, but not statistically significant. It also finds that trade openness integration of the economy with the global market – significantly enhances employment generation in the nation’s industrial sector in the long run; though the short run effect is negative and significant. These suggest that the country’s membership of the AfCFTA and implementation of policies aimed at (cautiously) deepening the integration of the economy with the global market should be considered as supplementary avenues to achieving (sustainable) employment generation in the nation’s industrial sector in the short-and long-run. Other evidence-based policy recommendations are discussed.

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