Long-Run Relationship Between Economic Development and International Tourism in Pakistan

This article examines the link between economic development and international tourism in the context of Pakistan. The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag tests (ARDL) for the long-term relationship; the short-term relationship is examined with Error Correction model, and the VECM-Granger causality to determine the direction of the causal flow. The study uses annual data from the CEIC and World Bank databases for the period 1990-2017. The novelty stems from the perspective that there is no formal evidence on long-run dynamics between economic development indicators and international tourism from Pakistan. It contributes to the existing literature on this vital phenomenon. The empirical results document the long-term and short-term association between the variables. We also find a two-way causal flow between economic development and tourism. In addition, it offers policy implications for focusing on three economic dimensions, e.g. economic development, financial development, and stock market development, which subsequently attracts international tourism. Intuitively, promulgates National culture and image across borders and strengthens the National Treasury as well.

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Will the COVID-19 pandemic lead to a tsunami of suicides? A Swedish nationwide analysis of historical and 2020 data

10.1101/2020.12.10.20244699 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Christian Rück ◽

David Mataix-Cols ◽

Kinda Malki ◽

Mats Adler ◽

Oskar Flygare ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Negative Impact ◽

Annual Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Death Rates ◽

Men And Women ◽

Influenza Pandemics ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

The Media

ABSTRACTBackgroundVarious surveys have documented a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population’s mental health. There is widespread concern about a surge of suicides, but evidence supporting a link between global pandemics and suicide is very limited. Using historical data from the three major influenza pandemics of the 20th century, and recently released data from the first half of 2020, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.MethodsAnnual data on influenza death rates and suicide rates were extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden from 1910-1978, covering the three 20th century pandemics, and from Statistics Sweden for the period from January to June of each year during 2000-2020. COVID-19 death data were available for the first half of 2020. We implemented non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term effect of increases and decreases in influenza death rates on suicide rates during 1910-1978. Analyses were done separately for men and women. Descriptive analyses were used for the available 2020 data.FindingsBetween 1910-1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides. The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women. Suicide rates in January-June 2020 revealed a slight decrease compared to the corresponding rates in January-June 2019 (relative decrease by −1.2% among men and −12.8% among women).InterpretationWe found no evidence of short or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics or during the first six months of 2020 (when the first wave of COVID-19 occurred). Concerns about a substantial increase of suicides may be exaggerated. The media should be cautious when reporting news about suicides during the current pandemic.

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Sustainability of Women’s Employment Rate for Malaysian Economic Development

Jurnal Institutions and Economies ◽

10.22452/ijie.vol13no3.3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 53-79

Author(s):

Aye Aye Khin ◽

Mei Peng Low ◽

Moe Shwe Sin ◽

Seethaletchumy Thambiah ◽

Soh Chong Yu

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Error Correction ◽

Rank Test ◽

Women's Employment ◽

Annual Data ◽

Employment Rate ◽

Short Term ◽

Women’S Employment ◽

Johansen Cointegration

This research paper develops a model for the sustainability of women’s employment rate in Malaysia’s economic development. This study examined annual data from 1982 to 2018, with 37 observations. A new econometric method was adopted to determine both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables using the Johansen Cointegration rank test, Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) with error correction model of cointegration equation. The VECM results revealed significant and positive short-term relationships between foreign direct investment, gross domestic product (GDP), and the negative short-term relationship of the lagged period of women’s employment rate to women employment rate (WER). The variables, GDP, education level, and women’s marital status are cointegrated and have a long-term relationship between WER in the cointegration equation. The Johansen Cointegration rank test also showed the existence of cointegration equations, and a long-term relationship between the variables. Eventually, the residual diagnosis, significant error term, and the performance of the model evaluation were found as satisfactory and valid. In short, this research paves the way for policymakers to construct a better policy for the future of women’s employment sustainability.

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An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

International Business Research ◽

10.5539/ibr.v12n9p94 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 94

Author(s):

Daouda Coulibaly ◽

Fulgence Zran Goueu

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Empirical Analysis ◽

Annual Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

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HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

Jurnal Ekonomi Balance ◽

10.26618/jeb.v16i1.3505 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 13-23

Author(s):

Akhmad Akhmad

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Panel Data ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Vector Autoregression ◽

Short Term ◽

South Sulawesi ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

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Interdependence between banking earnings, banking security and growth achievement: case study in the ASEAN community

Journal of Economics and Development ◽

10.1108/jed-01-2020-0003 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 249-264

Author(s):

Minh Phu Pham

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Well Being ◽

Output Growth ◽

Annual Data ◽

Content Type ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Banking Development

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of interdependence amongst banking earnings, banking security and growth performance across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region.Design/methodology/approachThis paper utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag method with the annual data of nine ASEAN members over 1996–2017.FindingsOnly the short-run Granger causal impact of banking profitability on economic expansion is supported, while the long-run Granger causality between all the variables is strongly recognized. Increased banking well-being supports economic development, while higher banking security might have inverse impacts. However, increasing the banking profit without the corresponding better soundness can be detrimental to the economic growth in the short run and much more in the long run. Thus, improving banking profitability and stability simultaneously has positive net effects on the economic development.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is restricted to unavailable data and limited measurements of both banking profitability and stability. Further inclusion of other macro-economic variables, other banking development aspects or even non-banking indicators should also be considered.Practical implicationsNational governments should emphasize a convenient financial environment, which can strongly enhance the positive relationship between banking earnings, banking safeness and output growth. Also, the relevant policies on higher banking well-being and stricter security obligations have to be simultaneously maintained.Originality/valueFew papers have inspected the interrelationship between banking stability, banking profitability and economic growth, particularly in the ASEAN region. This causes the banking literature shortage, as well as insufficient insights for the financial policymakers into their endogenous dynamics. Thus, the study is the first attempt to fulfil the research gap.

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Does corruption adversely affect economic growth in Tunisia? ARDL approach

Journal of Money Laundering Control ◽

10.1108/jmlc-12-2018-0076 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 38-54

Author(s):

Anas Al Qudah ◽

Azzouz Zouaoui ◽

Mostafa E. Aboelsoud

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Physical Capital ◽

Content Type ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Impact

Purpose This study aims to better understand the phenomenon of corruption in Tunisia in relation to its impact on economic development. The period of study is 1995 to 2014. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to examine the existence of a long-term relationship between the above-mentioned variables and also the direct and indirect consequences of corruption on economic development in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a modern econometric technique to estimating the long-term relationship (e.g. the co-integration) between corruption and economic development; using this technique also allows us to investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth. Findings The empirical results show that corruption has a negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Tunisia for the period under review. This effect is described as a direct effect of corruption in the long term; specifically, declines are observed in per capita GDP, over the long run, by almost 1 per cent, following a 1 per cent increase in the level of corruption. The results also show that corruption has indirect effects via transmission channels, such as investment in physical capital, which is positively significant in the presence of corruption. The same observation is made at the level of government expenditure during the previous year, while for those of the current year, the coefficient becomes negative but not significant. With respect to human capital, the impact of corruption on education expenditures is insignificant. Originality/value The paper begins with an overview of previous literature in this area. Given the nature of corruption and the differences in the meanings attributed to it, from one country to another and from one culture to another, the paper moves on to study the impact of corruption in Tunisia as a case study for one country with one socio-cultural environment. The authors then propose several methods and possible solutions, which could be implemented to deal with this problem.

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Pengaruh Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Syariah (SBIS), Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), Tingkat Inflasi, dan Index Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Terhadap Nilai Tukar: Pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed LAG (ARDL)

Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan ◽

10.20473/vol4iss201710pp833-846 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (10) ◽

pp. 833

Author(s):

Nur Fadhilah ◽

Raditya Sukmana

Keyword(s):

Quantitative Research ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

The Us ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Us Dollar

This study aims to review the effect of macro economic factors such as BankIndonesia Sharia Certificates (BISC), Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), Inflation, and Indonesia Composit Index (ICI) Against Exchange Rate of Rupiah Period 2013-2016 both long term and short term. This quantitative research used Autoregressive Distributed (ARDL) method. The data used is secondary data by collecting data from official website of Bank Indonesia, Yahoo Finance and PT. IDX) period 2013 to 2016. ARDL results show that In the short term variable JII, ICI, and BISC have a significant negative effect which means increaseing the variable will cause the Rupiah appreciate against the US Dollar. While variable Inflation has a positive value which means rising inflation will lead the Rupiah depreciate. In the Long run BISC and JII variable is negative and significant, while ICI is positive and inflation is negative not-significant.

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Trade and Economic Growth: The Case of India

PRAGATI Journal of Indian Economy ◽

10.17492/pragati.v4i01.9545 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (01) ◽

Author(s):

Simran Sethi

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Annual Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Causality Test ◽

The Third ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to investigate the short run as well as long run relationship between GDP, exports and imports for India using annual data from 1982 to 2016. Through this paper, I examine the four main hypotheses regarding the relation between exports, imports and economic growth. The first one is export-led growth hypothesis, the second one is the import-led growth hypothesis, the third one is the growth-led exports and lastly, the growth-led imports hypothesis. The Johansen’s cointegration is used to examine the long term relationship and empirical results indicate that there is a long run relationship between GDP, exports and imports. The short term relationship is measured using the Granger causality test and the statistical results suggest unidirectional causality from GDP to exports and GDP to imports in conformity with the growth-led exports and growth-led imports hypothesis respectively.

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Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13095024 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 5024

Author(s):

Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽

María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽

José Luis Miralles-Quirós

Keyword(s):

Risk Factor ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Oil Price ◽

Short Term ◽

Environmental Indices ◽

Long Run ◽

Green Investment ◽

Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

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Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

Global Business Review ◽

10.1177/0972150918825422 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 279-296 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽

Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽

Zeeshan Atiq ◽

Usman Azhar

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Series Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

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