scholarly journals Forecasting the impacts of severe weather

2021 ◽  
Vol 10.47389/36 (No 1) ◽  
pp. 76-83
Author(s):  
Serena Schroeter ◽  
Harald Richter ◽  
Craig Arthur ◽  
David Wilke ◽  
Mark Dunford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Vehicle Traffic ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Preparatory Action ◽  
Hydrological Services ◽  
Inform Decision Making ◽  
Selection Of

National meteorological and hydrological services provide severe weather warning information to inform decision-making by emergency management organisations. Such information also helps communities to take defensive and mitigating actions prior to and during severe weather events. Globally, warning information issued by meteorological and hydrological services varies widely. This can range from solely hazard-based to impact-based forecasting encompassing the exposure and vulnerability of communities to severe weather. The most advanced of these systems explicitly and quantitatively model the impacts of hazards on affected assets or infrastructure such as vehicle traffic or housing. Incorporating impact information into severe weather warnings contextualises and personalises the warning information, increasing the likelihood that individuals and communities will take preparatory action. However, providing useful and detailed impact information remains a challenge. This paper reviews a selection of current severe weather warnings and impact forecasting capabilities globally and highlights uncertainties that limit the forecasting and modelling of multi-hazard events.

Emergency management decision-making during severe weather

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh A. Baumgart ◽  
Ellen J. Bass ◽  
Brenda Philips ◽  
Kevin Kloesel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Management Decision Making

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

scholarly journals Increasing the Value of Uncertain Weather and River Forecasts for Emergency Managers

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Hoss ◽  
Paul Fischbeck
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Many

Abstract Emergency managers (EMs) use National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts to prepare for and respond to severe weather events. To effectively facilitate such decision making, the NWS needs to understand this large and important group of clients. EMs translate the forecasts to local topography, suggest actions to take in preparation of high water levels, and use their local network and reputation to make people act. For this study, 17 EMs in towns along rivers were interviewed and asked to describe their use of river and weather forecasts. Forecast uncertainty is one of the many uncertainties an EM has to manage when coordinating an emergency response. Each of the interviewed EMs who uses river forecasts was acutely aware that river forecasts often have substantial uncertainty. To cope with this uncertainty, EMs engage in extensive information gathering before forming their own judgments. However, EMs often do not communicate their judgment of the situation to the public, fearing potential liability claims and backlash from the media. For emergency management decisions, while EMs do consider forecast data, they rely heavily on recorded data and monitoring crews, limiting the benefits of forecasts that can be made with significant lead time. This paper arrives at recommendations for the NWS on how to increase the value of river and weather forecasts for decision making in emergency management.

Emergency Management Decision-Making during Severe Weather

2006 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh A. Baumgart ◽  
Ellen J. Bass ◽  
Brenda Philips ◽  
Kevin Kloesel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Management Decision Making

scholarly journals Emergency Management Decision Making during Severe Weather

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1268-1279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh A. Baumgart ◽  
Ellen J. Bass ◽  
Brenda Philips ◽  
Kevin Kloesel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model

Abstract Emergency managers make time-sensitive decisions in order to protect the public from threats including severe weather. Simulation and questionnaires were used to capture the decision-making process of emergency managers during severe weather events. These data were combined with insights from emergency manager instructors, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, and experienced emergency managers to develop a descriptive decision-making model of weather information usage, weather assessments, and decisions made during severe weather. This decision-making model can be used to develop better decision support tools, improve training, and to understand how innovative weather information could potentially affect emergency managers’ role of protecting the public.

scholarly journals Crowdsourcing of weather observations at national meteorological and hydrological services in Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 71-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Krennert ◽  
Georg Pistotnik ◽  
Rainer Kaltenberger ◽  
Christian Csekits
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Crucial Information ◽  
Hydrological Services ◽  
Ground Truth Information

Abstract. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) increase their efforts to deliver impact-based weather forecasts and warnings. At the same time, a desired increase in cost-efficiency prompts these services to automatize their weather station networks and to reduce the number of human observers, which leads to a lack of “ground truth” information about weather phenomena and their impact. A possible alternative is to encourage the general public to submit weather observations, which may include crucial information especially in high-impact situations. We wish to provide an overview of the state and properties of existing collaborations between NMHSs and voluntary weather observers or storm spotters across Europe. For that purpose, we performed a survey among 30 European NMHSs, from which 22 NMHSs returned our questionnaire. This study summarizes the most important findings and evaluates the use of “crowdsourced” information. 86 % of the surveyed NMHSs utilize information provided by the general public, 50 % have established official collaborations with spotter groups, and 18 % have formalized them. The observations are most commonly used for a real-time improvement of severe weather warnings, their verification, and an establishment of a climatology of severe weather events. The importance of these volunteered weather and impact observations has strongly risen over the past decade. We expect that this trend will continue and that storm spotters will become an essential part in severe weather warning, like they have been for decades in the United States of America. A rising number of incoming reports implies that quality management will become an increasing issue, and we finally discuss an idea how to handle this challenge.

Decision making in severe weather uncertainty

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared E. LeClerc ◽  
Susan Joslyn
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Uncertainty

Selection of Contractor Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tools

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 139-142
Author(s):  
S.PUSHPARANI S.PUSHPARANI ◽  
◽  
Dr.S.SENTHAMILKUMAR Dr.S.SENTHAMILKUMAR
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Selection Of

Sistem Pendukung Keputusan SNMPTN Jalur Undangan Dengan Metode Electre

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Lidia K Simanjuntak ◽  
Tessa Y M Sihite ◽  
Mesran Mesran ◽  
Nuning Kurniasih ◽  
Yuhandri Yuhandri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Action Selection ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Prospective Students ◽  
College Entrance ◽  
Electre Method ◽  
Selection Of

All colleges each year organize the selection of new admissions. Acceptance of prospective students in universities as education providers is done by selecting prospective students based on achievement in school and college entrance selection. To select the best student candidates based on predetermined criteria, then use Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) or commonly called decision support system. One method in MCDM is the Elimination Et Choix Traduisant la Reality (ELECTRE). The ELECTRE method is the best method of action selection. The ELECTRE method to obtain the best alternative by eliminating alternative that do not fit the criteria and can be applied to the decision SNMPTN invitation path.

PEMILIHAN KEPLING TELADAN MENERAPKAN METODE RANK ORDER CENTROID (ROC) DAN METODE ADDITIVE RATIO ASSESSMENT (ARAS) DI KECAMATAN MEDAN AREA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liza Handayani ◽  
Muhammad Syahrizal ◽  
Kennedi Tampubolon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Priority Level ◽  
The Village ◽  
Field Area ◽  
Selection Of

The head of the environment is an extension of the head of the village head in assisting or providing services to the community both in the administration of administration in the village and to other problems. It is natural for a kepling to be appreciated for their performance during their special tenure in the kecamatan field area. Previously, the selection of a dipling in a sub-district was very inefficient and seemed unfair for this exemplary selection to use a system to produce an accurate value, and no intentional element. To overcome the process of selecting an exemplary kepling that experiences these obstacles by using an application called a Decision Support System. Decision Support System (SPK) is a system that can solve a problem, and this system is also assisted with several methods, namely the Rank Order Centroid (ROC) method that can assign weight values to each of the criteria based on their priority level. And to do the ranking or determine an exemplary set using the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, this method provides decision making that takes decisions based on ranking or the highest value.Keywords: Head of Medan Area Subdistrict, SPK, Centroid Rank Order, Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS).

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