scholarly journals Increasing the Value of Uncertain Weather and River Forecasts for Emergency Managers

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Hoss ◽  
Paul Fischbeck
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Many

Abstract Emergency managers (EMs) use National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts to prepare for and respond to severe weather events. To effectively facilitate such decision making, the NWS needs to understand this large and important group of clients. EMs translate the forecasts to local topography, suggest actions to take in preparation of high water levels, and use their local network and reputation to make people act. For this study, 17 EMs in towns along rivers were interviewed and asked to describe their use of river and weather forecasts. Forecast uncertainty is one of the many uncertainties an EM has to manage when coordinating an emergency response. Each of the interviewed EMs who uses river forecasts was acutely aware that river forecasts often have substantial uncertainty. To cope with this uncertainty, EMs engage in extensive information gathering before forming their own judgments. However, EMs often do not communicate their judgment of the situation to the public, fearing potential liability claims and backlash from the media. For emergency management decisions, while EMs do consider forecast data, they rely heavily on recorded data and monitoring crews, limiting the benefits of forecasts that can be made with significant lead time. This paper arrives at recommendations for the NWS on how to increase the value of river and weather forecasts for decision making in emergency management.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

Collaboration and crowdsourcing in emergency management

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Ernst ◽  
Andreas Mladenow ◽  
Christine Strauss
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Network ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
Weak Ties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Social Network Effects

Purpose Emergency managers face coordinative challenges that require a high degree of mobility, flexibility and the ability to interpret heterogeneous, location-dependent information of various sources and quality. Recent information and communication technology-driven developments like crowdsourcing or social networks have opened up new organizational possibilities for emergency managers. To make quick but solid decisions, and improve the coordination of activities performed by crowdsourcees during disaster response, the authors suggest the use of collaborative features from crowdsourcing and inherent availability of resources from social network effects. In this paper, the idea of considering collaboration and crowdsourcing as drivers for flexibility in the design of business processes in the context of emergency management is prepared, the meaning of location-dependent tasks for volunteers is investigated, and the added value of social network effects is substantiated. Design/methodology/approach This paper is part of an ongoing research project in the field of crowdsourcing. It represents conceptual work that builds on relevant literature. Findings In terms of emergency management, the paper sheds light on what emergency managers may consider when coordinating activities performed by volunteers and how they may benefit from social network effects. Furthermore, it is shown how they can exploit information using collaboration-based and tournament-like crowdsourcing, how they can benefit from invoking additional resources using weak ties from social networks, and how visualization of information may support decision-making. Practical implications Exemplary applications to exploit crowdsourcing and social network effects to support improvisation and to respond flexibly in disaster response are given. Originality/value This paper suggests novel collaborative approaches to support emergency managers in their decision-making. Based on social network analysis, the value of weak ties is elaborated, and based on a taxonomy from crowdsourcing, distinct collaborative alternatives are developed and proposed for application in emergency management.

Decision‐making training in local government emergency management

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Sinclair ◽  
Emma E.H. Doyle ◽  
David M. Johnston ◽  
Douglas Paton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Decision Making Styles ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Survey Approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to contribute information and recommendations that could better equip emergency managers to prepare for and respond to emergencies and disasters, with a focus on improving their decision‐making capabilities during response.Design/methodology/approachA questionnaire‐based survey approach was used in this research and 48 different local government organisations participated. These results were examined in conjunction with contemporary emergency management decision‐making literature. A combination of closed and open ended questions was used, enabling qualitative and quantitative analysis.FindingsResults suggest that while there is information available about decision making, not all emergency managers are aware of the existence of this information or understand its relevance to emergency management. It is likely that those who did have a comprehensive understanding of decision making had gained this knowledge through non‐emergency management‐related courses. In total, 71 percent of participants said they would be interested in receiving more support regarding training and practice for decision making in Emergency Operations Centres.Originality/valueA wide body of research has investigated decision‐making styles. However, this paper shows that in the local government emergency management sector there is little awareness of the understanding of the different decision‐making approaches. In addition, for those organisations surveyed, there is a great desire for further training and practice in decision making. It is thus vital that this need is addressed, to further improve the future response of these organisations to emergencies.

scholarly journals Data interoperability software solution for emergency reaction in the Europe Union

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1563-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Casado ◽  
E. Rubiera ◽  
M. Sacristan ◽  
F. Schütte ◽  
R. Peters
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Service Oriented Architecture ◽  
First Responders ◽  
Data Interoperability ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Linguistic Differences ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Disaster Data ◽  
Modular Ontology

Abstract. Emergency management becomes more challenging in international crisis episodes because of cultural, semantic and linguistic differences between all stakeholders, especially first responders. Misunderstandings between first responders makes decision making slower and more difficult. However, spread and development of networks and IT-based emergency management systems (EMSs) have improved emergency responses, which have become more coordinated. Despite improvements made in recent years, EMSs have not still solved problems related to cultural, semantic and linguistic differences which are the real cause of slower decision making. In addition, from a technical perspective, the consolidation of current EMSs and the different formats used to exchange information offers another problem to be solved in any solution proposed for information interoperability between heterogeneous EMSs in different contexts. To overcome these problems, we present a software solution based on semantic and mediation technologies. EMERGency ELements (EMERGEL) (Fundacion CTIC and AntwortING Ingenieurbüro PartG, 2013), a common and modular ontology shared by all the stakeholders, has been defined. It offers the best solution to gather all stakeholders' knowledge in a unique and flexible data model, taking into account different countries' cultural and linguistic issues. To deal with the diversity of data protocols and formats, we have designed a service-oriented architecture for data interoperability (named DISASTER: Data Interoperability Solution At STakeholders Emergency Reaction) providing a flexible extensible solution to solve the mediation issues. Web services have been adopted as specific technology to implement this paradigm that has the most significant academic and industrial visibility and attraction. Contributions of this work have been validated through the design and development of a cross-border realistic prototype scenario, actively involving both emergency managers and emergency-first responders: the Netherlands–Germany border fire.

scholarly journals Data interoperability software solution for emergency reaction in the Europe Union

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (9) ◽  
pp. 6003-6031 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Casado ◽  
E. Rubiera ◽  
M. Sacristan ◽  
F. Schütte ◽  
R. Peters
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Service Oriented Architecture ◽  
First Responders ◽  
Data Interoperability ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Linguistic Differences ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Service Oriented ◽  
Modular Ontology

Abstract. Emergency management becomes more challenging in international crisis episodes because of cultural, semantic and linguistic differences between all stakeholders, especially first responders. Misunderstandings between first responders makes decision-making slower and more difficult. However, spread and development of networks and IT-based Emergency Management Systems (EMS) has improved emergency responses, becoming more coordinated. Despite improvements made in recent years, EMS have not still solved problems related to cultural, semantic and linguistic differences which are the real cause of slower decision-making. In addition, from a technical perspective, the consolidation of current EMS and the different formats used to exchange information offers another problem to be solved in any solution proposed for information interoperability between heterogeneous EMS surrounded by different contexts. To overcome these problems we present a software solution based on semantic and mediation technologies. EMERGency ELements (EMERGEL) (Fundacion CTIC and AntwortING Ingenieurbüro PartG 2013), a common and modular ontology shared by all the stakeholders, has been defined. It offers the best solution to gather all stakeholders' knowledge in a unique and flexible data model, taking into account different countries cultural linguistic issues. To deal with the diversity of data protocols and formats, we have designed a Service Oriented Architecture for Data Interoperability (named DISASTER) providing a flexible extensible solution to solve the mediation issues. Web Services have been adopted as specific technology to implement such paradigm that has the most significant academic and industrial visibility and attraction. Contributions of this work have been validated through the design and development of a cross-border realistic prototype scenario, actively involving both emergency managers and emergency first responders: the Netherlands–Germany border fire.

Leadership, Public Values, and Trust in Emergency Management

2019 ◽  
pp. 66-88
Author(s):  
Augustine Nduka Eneanya
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Team Leadership ◽  
Public Values ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Chain Of Command ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Right ◽  
Share Information

In today's environment, emergency managers get things done through team leadership. Good leaders know how to follow others when the situation calls for it. Being the right kind of leader is critical to getting committed and engage followers. The chapter argues that managers build trust into decision making during emergencies; when managers set up the right conditions for the team to thrive, it results a better outcome. The chapter further argues that when managers share information both up and down the chain of command and make their intention clear about what winning looks like, team members are able to use their own discretion and make decisions that support the mission. The chapter concludes that an effective expression of the manager's intent must be clear and concise of what the team must do to succeed and achieve the desired end state. The manager must build trust in decision making among the team to achieve better results.

When Uncertainty is Certain: A Nuanced Trust between Emergency Managers and Forecast Information in the Southeastern United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-146
Author(s):  
Rachael N. Cross ◽  
Daphne S. LaDue
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Critical Incident ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Exact Science ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Emergency Managers

AbstractWeather forecasting is not an exact science, and, in regions near the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains, the vastly different types of topography and frequency of rapidly forming storms can result in high uncertainty in severe weather forecasts. NOAA created its VORTEX-Southeast (SE) research program to tackle these unique challenges and integrate them with social science research to increase the survivability of southeastern U.S. weather. As part of VORTEX-SE, this study focused on the severe weather preparation and decision-making of emergency management and, in particular, how uncertainty in severe weather forecasts impacted the relationship between emergency managers (EMs) and weather providers. We conducted in-depth, critical incident background interviews with 35 emergency management personnel across 14 counties. An inductive, data-driven analysis approach revealed several factors contributing to an added layer of practical uncertainty beyond the meteorological forecast uncertainty that impacted and helped to explain the nature of trust in the EM–National Weather Service (NWS) relationship. No- or short-notice events, null events, gaps in information, and differences in perspectives when compared with weather forecasters have led emergency managers to modify their procedures in ways that position them to adapt quickly to unexpected changes in the forecast. The need to do so creates a complex, nuanced trust between these groups. This paper explains how EMs developed a nuanced trust of forecast information, how that trust is a recognition of the inherent uncertainty in severe weather forecasts, and how to strengthen the NWS–EM relationship.

scholarly journals Managing Your Tropical Fruit Grove Under Changing Water Table Levels

EDIS ◽  
1969 ◽  
Vol 2004 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos F. Balerdi ◽  
Jonathan H. Crane ◽  
Bruce Schaffer
Keyword(s):  
Water Table ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
High Water ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Fruit Crops ◽  
University Of Florida ◽  
Tropical Fruit ◽  
Fact Sheet ◽  
Weather Events

This fact sheet has been prepared by IFAS faculty working with tropical fruit crops in an effort to assist growers manage their groves under conditions of flooding, high water tables, or drought. Although weather events cannot be controlled, becoming familiar with the effects of a high water table, flooding, or drought on tropical fruit crops may assist growers in managing their fruit trees so they survive these events with minimal or no damage. However, this process will be impacted by ground water levels, which are managed in south Florida, and thus are dependent on regional water management decisions. This document is Fact Sheet HS957, one of a series of Horticultural Sciences Department, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food andAgricultural Sciences, University of Florida. Published November 2003. HS957/HS202: Managing Your Tropical Fruit Grove under Changing Water Table Levels (ufl.edu)

Leadership, Public Values, and Trust in Emergency Management

2018 ◽  
pp. 61-82
Author(s):  
Augustine Nduka Eneanya
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Team Leadership ◽  
Public Values ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Chain Of Command ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Right ◽  
Share Information

In today's environment, emergency managers get things done through team leadership. Good leaders know how to follow others when the situation calls for it. Being the right kind of leader is critical to getting committed and engage followers. The chapter argues that managers build trust into decision making during emergencies; when managers set up the right conditions for the team to thrive, it results a better outcome. The chapter further argues that when managers share information both up and down the chain of command and make their intention clear about what winning looks like, team members are able to use their own discretion and make decisions that support the mission. The chapter concludes that an effective expression of the manager's intent must be clear and concise of what the team must do to succeed and achieve the desired end state. The manager must build trust in decision making among the team to achieve better results.

scholarly journals Sistem Pendeteksi Dini Bencana Banjir Menggunakan Teknik DTMF (Dual Tone Multiple Frequency)

Respati ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andika Agus Slameto ◽  
Eko Pramono ◽  
Zainal Arifin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Radio Waves ◽  
Multiple Frequency ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Water Conditions ◽  
Flood Detection ◽  
Human Side

INTISARIBanjir adalah bencana alam yang sulit di deteksi kapan akan datang terutama di musim hujan. Meskipun sudah dilakukan upaya dengan melakukan analisis terhadap data curah hujan serta tinggi permukaan air setiap periodenya, namun upaya tersebut dirasa masih belum dapat menyelesaikan permasalahan yang ada. Selain dari sisi manusia nya sendiri, solusi dari sisi teknologi juga diharapkan dapat penyelesaian permasalahan ini. Teknologi untuk deteksi dini bencana banjir akan dibutuhkan sebagai alternatif untuk membantu menyelesaikan permasalahan serta membantu dalam proses pengambilan keputusan guna meningkatkan kinerja instansi yang bekerja untuk memantau volume air sungai sehingga memperoleh kondisi air yang lebih cepat dan akurat. Tinggi permukaan air tentu menjadi salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan potensi banjir dimana permukaan air dapat diukur. DTMF merupakan metode pensinyalan yang nantinya akan dipadukan dengan sensor yang dapat digunakan untuk mengukur ketinggian permukaan air yang hasilnya nanti akan dikirim melalui gelombang radio. Dengan pengiriman sinyal melalui gelombang radio ini maka akan lebih efektif karena tidak memerlukan biaya seperti halnya melalui sms dan IoT.Kata kunci— DTMF, Arduino, Pendeteksi Banjir, SWOT, Gelombang Radio ABSTRACTFloods are natural disasters that are difficult in the detection of when it will come mainly in the rainy season. Despite efforts by conducting an analysis of the data of rainfall and high water levels at each, but those efforts proved still unable to resolve the existing problems. Aside from the human side of his own, the solution from the tech side is also expected to be the resolution of this issue. Technology for early detection of catastrophic flooding will be required as an alternative to help solve problems as well as help in the decision-making process in order to improve the performance of agencies who work to monitor the volume of river water so obtain water conditions more quickly and accurately. High water levels would certainly be one of the factors that lead to potential flooding where water levels can be measured. DTMF signalling is a method which will be combined with sensors that can be used to measure the height of the surface of the water which results will be sent via radio waves. With the delivery of the signal via radio waves it then it will be more effective because it doesn't cost as much as through sms and IoT.Keyword — DTMF, Arduino, Flood Detection, SWOT, Radio Wave

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