scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

Colorful Language: Investigating Public Interpretation of the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Ernst ◽  
Joe Ripberger ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Hank Jenkins-Smith ◽  
Carol Silva
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Public Interpretation ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Future Work

AbstractAlthough severe weather forecast products, such as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook, are much more accurate than climatology at day-to-week time scales, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms claim dozens of lives and cause billions of dollars in damage every year. While the accuracy of this outlook has been well documented, less work has been done to explore the comprehension of the product by non-expert users like the general public. This study seeks to fill this key knowledge gap by collecting data from a representative survey of U.S. adults in the lower 48 states about their use and interpretation of the SPC convective outlook. Participants in this study were asked to rank the words and colors used in the outlook from least to greatest risk, and their answers were compared through visualizations and statistical tests across multiple demographics. Results show that the US public ranks the outlook colors similarly to their ordering in the outlook but switch the positions of several of the outlook words as compared to the operational product. Logistic regression models also reveal that more numerate individuals more correctly rank the SPC outlook words and colors. These findings suggest that the words used in the convective outlook may confuse non-expert users, and that future work should continue to use input from public surveys to test potential improvements in the choice of outlook words. Using more easily understood words may help to increase the outlook’s decision support value and potentially reduce the harm caused by severe weather events.

scholarly journals A Total Lightning Trending Algorithm to Identify Severe Thunderstorms

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick N. Gatlin ◽  
Steven J. Goodman
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Jump Algorithm ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
Critical Success Index

Abstract An algorithm that provides an early indication of impending severe weather from observed trends in thunderstorm total lightning flash rates has been developed. The algorithm framework has been tested on 20 thunderstorms, including 1 nonsevere storm, which occurred over the course of six separate days during the spring months of 2002 and 2003. The identified surges in lightning rate (or jumps) are compared against 110 documented severe weather events produced by these thunderstorms as they moved across portions of northern Alabama and southern Tennessee. Lightning jumps precede 90% of these severe weather events, with as much as a 27-min advance notification of impending severe weather on the ground. However, 37% of lightning jumps are not followed by severe weather reports. Various configurations of the algorithm are tested, and the highest critical success index attained is 0.49. Results suggest that this lightning jump algorithm may be a useful operational diagnostic tool for severe thunderstorm potential.

scholarly journals Increasing the Value of Uncertain Weather and River Forecasts for Emergency Managers

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Hoss ◽  
Paul Fischbeck
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Many

Abstract Emergency managers (EMs) use National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts to prepare for and respond to severe weather events. To effectively facilitate such decision making, the NWS needs to understand this large and important group of clients. EMs translate the forecasts to local topography, suggest actions to take in preparation of high water levels, and use their local network and reputation to make people act. For this study, 17 EMs in towns along rivers were interviewed and asked to describe their use of river and weather forecasts. Forecast uncertainty is one of the many uncertainties an EM has to manage when coordinating an emergency response. Each of the interviewed EMs who uses river forecasts was acutely aware that river forecasts often have substantial uncertainty. To cope with this uncertainty, EMs engage in extensive information gathering before forming their own judgments. However, EMs often do not communicate their judgment of the situation to the public, fearing potential liability claims and backlash from the media. For emergency management decisions, while EMs do consider forecast data, they rely heavily on recorded data and monitoring crews, limiting the benefits of forecasts that can be made with significant lead time. This paper arrives at recommendations for the NWS on how to increase the value of river and weather forecasts for decision making in emergency management.

Decision‐making training in local government emergency management

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Sinclair ◽  
Emma E.H. Doyle ◽  
David M. Johnston ◽  
Douglas Paton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Decision Making Styles ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Survey Approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to contribute information and recommendations that could better equip emergency managers to prepare for and respond to emergencies and disasters, with a focus on improving their decision‐making capabilities during response.Design/methodology/approachA questionnaire‐based survey approach was used in this research and 48 different local government organisations participated. These results were examined in conjunction with contemporary emergency management decision‐making literature. A combination of closed and open ended questions was used, enabling qualitative and quantitative analysis.FindingsResults suggest that while there is information available about decision making, not all emergency managers are aware of the existence of this information or understand its relevance to emergency management. It is likely that those who did have a comprehensive understanding of decision making had gained this knowledge through non‐emergency management‐related courses. In total, 71 percent of participants said they would be interested in receiving more support regarding training and practice for decision making in Emergency Operations Centres.Originality/valueA wide body of research has investigated decision‐making styles. However, this paper shows that in the local government emergency management sector there is little awareness of the understanding of the different decision‐making approaches. In addition, for those organisations surveyed, there is a great desire for further training and practice in decision making. It is thus vital that this need is addressed, to further improve the future response of these organisations to emergencies.

scholarly journals Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

2018 ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Ernst ◽  
Daphne LaDue ◽  
Alan Gerard
Keyword(s):  
Critical Incident ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Relational Trust ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The Impact

For Emergency Managers (EMs), preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, well-communicated National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. As part of their constant work to improve these forecasts, the NWS has recently begun to develop impact-based products that share forecast uncertainty information with EMs, including the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) tool. However, there is a lack of research investigating what forecast uncertainty information EMs understand, and what information needs exist in the current communication paradigm. This study used the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes from incidents involving weather forecast information that went well, or not so well, from the perspective of the EMs responding to them. In total, 11 EMs from a variety of locales east of the Rockies were interviewed—six of whom were county-level, two city, two state, and one from a school district. We found that EMs sought increased forecast detail as a potential event approached in time and built relational trust in the NWS through repeated interactions. EMs had difficulty preparing for events when they did not have details of the expected impacts, or the likelihood of those impacts, for their regions. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in an uncertainty-friendly frame and could be responsive to the impact details and increased forecaster relations proposed with the PHI tool.

The role of gap analyses in energy assurance planning

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 181
Author(s):  
Katherine Shea, JD
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Power Loss ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Power Outages ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Impact

Energy-related emergencies, such as power outages or interruptions to other energy supplies, can arise from a number of factors. Common causes include severe weather events—such as snowstorms, hurricanes, or summer storms with strong winds—as well as energy infrastructure that is overburdened, aging, or in need of repair. As past experience indicates, jurisdictions will continue to experience severe weather events, as well as confront infrastructure issues that make future power outages likely. As a result, state and local governments have turned to energy assurance planning, an energy-specific form of planning that helps jurisdictions prepare for and recover from energy emergencies. Energy assurance recognizes that power loss/disruption cannot be eradicated completely, but jurisdictions can mitigate the impact of power loss through effective planning. This article discusses the role of energy assurance planning and provides a description of what energy assurance means and why developing such plans at the state and local levels is important. In addition, this article discusses the role of statutory gap analyses in energy assurance planning and discusses how a gap analysis can be used by planners to identify trends and gaps in energy assurance. To provide context, a recently conducted statutory gap analysis analyzing national emergency backup power trends is provided as a case study. A summary of this project and key findings is included. Finally, this article briefly touches on legislation as an alternative to energy assurance planning, and provides summaries of recent legislative proposals introduced in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

Distrust in emergency management: The impact of reduced information exchange

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjørn Ivar Kruke, MSc, PhD
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Willingness To Communicate ◽  
Trust Building ◽  
Complex Emergencies ◽  
Humanitarian Operations ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Host Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Coordination of humanitarian operations in complex emergencies require joint initiatives from mutually dependent actors, such as the host government, large UN agencies, international and national nongovernmental organizations, and the population. To master the challenges of coordination, building trust relations between these actors is essential, trust relations based on the willingness to communicate, to share information, and to cooperate. However, distrust between the displaced population and host government is often seen in complex emergencies and influences the agencies coming to the emergency area. This article concludes that distrust leads to reduced information exchange and thereby increased distrust. Although distrust in the authorities is well founded in Darfur, humanitarian operations without the authorities are not possible. The right personalities in key positions and smaller forums for information exchange increase the likelihood of trust-building between individual emergency managers from the various actors; trust-building is necessary for reliable emergency management.

Advanced MUlti-GNSS Array for Monitoring Severe Weather Events (AMUSE): Project overview

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karina Wilgan ◽  
Jens Wickert ◽  
Galina Dick ◽  
Florian Zus ◽  
Torsten Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Precise Knowledge ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Data Products ◽  
New Generation ◽  
The Impact

<p>Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have revolutionized positioning, navigation, and timing, becoming a common part of our everyday life. Aside from these well-known civilian and commercial applications, GNSS is currently established as a powerful and versatile observation tool for geosciences. An outstanding application in this context is the operational monitoring of atmospheric water vapor with high spatiotemporal resolution. The water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, which accounts for about 70% of atmospheric warming and plays a key role in the atmospheric energy exchange. The precise knowledge of its highly variable spatial and temporal distribution is a precondition for precise modeling of the atmospheric state as a base for numerical weather forecasts especially with focus to the strong precipitation and severe weather events.</p><p>The data from European GNSS networks are widely operationally used to improve regional weather forecasts in several countries. However, the impact of the currently provided data products to the forecast systems is still limited due to the exclusively focusing on GPS-only based data products; to the limited atmospheric information content, which is provided mostly in the zenith direction and to the time delay between measurement and providing the data products, which is currently about one hour.</p><p>AMUSE is a recent research project, funded by the DFG (German Research Council) and performed in close cooperation of TUB, GFZ and DWD during 2020-2022. The project foci are the major limitations of currently operationally used generation of GNSS-based water vapor data. AMUSE will pioneer the development of next generation data products. Main addressed innovations are:  1) Developments to provide multi-GNSS instead of GPS-only data, including GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou; 2) Developments to provide high quality slant observations, containing water vapor information along the line-of-sight from the respective ground stations; 3) Developments to shorten the delay between measurements and the provision of the products to the meteorological services.</p><p>This GNSS-focused work of AMUSE will be complemented by the contribution of German Weather Service DWD to investigate in detail and to quantify the forecast improvement, which can be reached by the new generation GNSS-based meteorology data. Several dedicated forecast experiments will be conducted with focus on one of the most challenging issues, the precipitation forecast in case of severe weather events. These studies will support the future assimilation of the new generation data to the regional forecast system of DWD and potentially also to other European weather services.</p>

scholarly journals Determining Criteria for Missed Events to Evaluate Significant Severe Convective Outlooks

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1321-1328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan M. Hitchens ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Wind Gusts ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Future Focus

Abstract Among the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) probabilistic convective outlook products are forecasts specifically targeted at significant severe weather: tornadoes that produce EF2 or greater damage, wind gusts of at least 75 mi h−1, and hail with diameters of 2 in. or greater. During the period of 2005–15, for outlooks issued beginning on day 3 and through the final update to the day 1 forecast, the accuracy and skill of these significant severe outlooks are evaluated. To achieve this, criteria for the identification of significant severe weather events were developed, with a focus on determining days for which outlooks were not issued, but should have been based on the goals of the product. Results show that significant tornadoes and hail are generally well identified by outlooks, but significant wind events are underforecast. There exist differences between verification measures when calculating them based on 1) only those days for which outlooks were issued and 2) days with outlooks or missed events; specifically, there were improvements in the frequency of daily skillful forecasts when disregarding missed events. With the greatest number of missed events associated with significant wind events, forecasts for this hazard are identified as an area of future focus for the SPC.

Lessons learned from Hurricane Irma

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-109
Author(s):  
Mallory M. Nicholls, MSEng
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Power Outages ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Debris Removal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hurricane Irma

In the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, Emergency Managers looked at the challenges faced during the storm and found areas for improvement. Some of those challenges included evacuation procedures, staffing at the Emergency Operations Centers, slow debris removal times, and prolonged power outages. This research considers various counties impacted directly and indirectly by Hurricane Irma. The After-Action Reports of several counties have been summarized, including not only the problems, but recommendations for improving or preventing those problems from occurring again. The lessons learned from Hurricane Irma could lessen the impact of future storms, not only for those who dealt with Irma, but for all communities that can face high impact natural disasters.

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