Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting

Policy Papers ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 (80) ◽  
Author(s):  

Political uncertainty in the Arab Countries in Transition (ACT) has continued in recent months, especially as the escalation of the conflict in Syria is creating negative regional spillovers.1 While transition governments have maintained macroeconomic stability thus far, serious short-term risks continue, and the authorities have made limited progress in building consensus for needed economic reforms. With the exception of Libya, the ACTs’ growth in 2012 has remained weak in light of continued policy uncertainty, regional tensions, the deteriorating global economy, and high food and fuel commodity prices. A moderate recovery is expected in 2013. The shrinking of fiscal and reserve buffers over the past year has left very little policy space and heightened vulnerabilities. Prompt policy action and timely and adequate international support are essential to maintain macroeconomic stability and address long-running structural deficiencies, to lay the foundation for inclusive growth and job creation for a young and growing population.

Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (31) ◽  
Author(s):  

Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) continue to face high political uncertainty and social pressures. The uprisings and protests have generated the promise of a better life for 300 million people, but forthcoming elections and constitutional reform, as well as populations anxious for jobs and higher incomes, complicate policymaking for many governments. At the same time, fiscal and reserves buffers have diminished sharply, underscoring the urgent need to maintain macroeconomic stability in an environment of sluggish global growth, high commodity prices, and still impaired domestic confidence. Resolute policy action and support from the international community are required; particularly as last year’s subdued growth in the ACTs (except Libya) is expected to improve only slightly in 2013 and is overshadowed by persistent external and regional risks. It will be equally important for policymakers to move quickly on designing and implementing effective structural reforms to build dynamic and inclusive economies that generate (many) more jobs than are available today. Promoting private-sector growth and international trade, as well as attracting foreign direct investment inflows, will be key components of success. Financial assistance and technical expertise from external partners, including Transition Fund projects, can make a big difference in this endeavor.


Policy Papers ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (30) ◽  
Author(s):  

In spite of deepening and spreading conflicts in the region, as well as, in many cases, a challenging internal socio-political environment, the Arab Countries in Transition (Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen) have broadly maintained macroeconomic stability. At the same time, however, their economies are not delivering the growth rates needed for a meaningful reduction in unemployment, in particular for the youth and women. Notwithstanding diversity of conditions, countries should quickly advance structural reforms to foster higher and more inclusive growth, and continue to strengthen fiscal and external buffers to maintain stability amid heightened uncertainty. Coordinated support from the international community will be crucial in the form of financing, improved trade access, and capacity building assistance.


Policy Papers ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (22) ◽  
Author(s):  

Despite uneven progress, there are early signs of improvement and macroeconomic stabilization in some Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs). 1 However, persistently weak growth and subdued private investment amid heightened regional insecurity continue to weigh on the task of reducing unemployment. This calls for accelerated reform efforts by the authorities to achieve higher, more inclusive, and more private sector-led growth, supported by external partners. In addition, mobilizing affordable external financing could help boost well-implemented public investment and provide a short-term impetus to growth and employment, thereby stabilizing difficult socio-political conditions on the ground and providing space for deeper structural reforms.


1998 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain

The economic outlook for the global economy has deteriorated appreciably over the past six months. By the late spring it had already become clear that growth in the OECD economies would slow to around 2½ per cent this year from 3 per cent in 1997, with strong domestic demand outside Japan being offset by the growing impact of the contraction in the Asian economies. However the further slowdown projected in 1999 appeared relatively benign, with monetary conditions remaining accommodative in the major economies and commodity prices remaining weak.


Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (30) ◽  
Author(s):  

The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Shirly Siew-Ling Wong ◽  
Toh-Hao Tan ◽  
Shazali Abu Mansor ◽  
Venus Khim-Sen Liew

Despite the relatively strong adjustment in the global economy outlook, the Malaysian economy remains uncertain as the ringgit movement lies ambiguously ahead while volatile capital flows, inflationary pressure, and the vulnerable external sector and global trade remain intense. The Sarawak economy, which relies heavily on primary commodities and export earnings from oil-based industries, will soon face a noxious mixture of economic risks following the decrease in commodity prices. Thus, it is essential to develop a well-timed signaling mechanism to estimate the unpredictable economic forces that develop from the complex and multidimensional issues of domestic and global economies. The ideology of indicator construction from the Conference Board will be applied in this study to build a composite leading indicator, called the Sarawak Business Cycle Indicator (SBCI), to trace the cyclical movement of the aggregate economic activity in Sarawak. In this respect, the SBCI, which has demonstrated statistical significance with an average leading power of 3.5 months, is expected to be important in reflecting a notable economic outlook for the State. More importantly, the SBCI will serve as a valuable reference to act as a short-term forecasting tool to provide insight at both the national and state levels.


2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Kamlesh Kumar Shukla

FIIs are companies registered outside India. In the past four years there has been more than $41 trillion worth of FII funds invested in India. This has been one of the major reasons on the bull market witnessing unprecedented growth with the BSE Sensex rising 221% in absolute terms in this span. The present downfall of the market too is influenced as these FIIs are taking out some of their invested money. Though there is a lot of value in this market and fundamentally there is a lot of upside in it. For long-term value investors, there’s little because for worry but short term traders are adversely getting affected by the role of FIIs are playing at the present. Investors should not panic and should remain invested in sectors where underlying earnings growth has little to do with financial markets or global economy.


2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
Sakib Sherani

As a result of policy inaction in addressing structural issues over a protracted period and a wrong set of economic priorities followed over the past several years, Pakistan’s economy faces a grave set of challenges. Among the many issues, which range from high inflation to power deficits and water stress, the most immediate and pressing is the need to restore fiscal order. While pressure on the coalition government to reduce the economic hardship of the electorate is understandably intense, the policy response needs to balance the alleviation of palpable hardship in the short term, with the ability to provide sustained benefits over the longer term. Given the sharp constriction in available fiscal space, adopting a policy course in the short run that raises expectations of “relief” may not be wise, in either political or economic terms. In the longer term, however, it is a misconception to view the available choices in purely binary terms, i.e. that “macroeconomic stability” (a much-maligned term, loath to politicians not just in Pakistan) is mutually exclusive to “pro-poor” agendas. Raising revenues by broadening the tax base meaningfully, in conjunction with rationalizing bloated government/public sector expenditures can free fiscal resources, which can be diverted to targeted subsidy programs. Ignoring macroeconomic stability, on the other hand, will eventually also undermine the ability of the government to influence economic growth, as growing fiscal and monetary constraints limit its ability to run appropriate policies.


Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (70) ◽  
Author(s):  

In an environment of heightened socio-economic tensions, regional insecurity, and strained public finances, the Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) 1 face the difficult task of delivering on the expectations for jobs and growth. Despite patchy improvements in some countries, economic growth remains subdued, private investment is weak, and external and fiscal buffers are running low. Fostering social cohesion and avoiding a downward spiral of economic and political malaise calls for urgent implementation of economic reforms and coordinated support from the international community.


2020 ◽  
Vol 134 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-401
Author(s):  
Carla El-Mallah ◽  
Omar Obeid

Abstract Obesity and increased body adiposity have been alarmingly increasing over the past decades and have been linked to a rise in food intake. Many dietary restrictive approaches aiming at reducing weight have resulted in contradictory results. Additionally, some policies to reduce sugar or fat intake were not able to decrease the surge of obesity. This suggests that food intake is controlled by a physiological mechanism and that any behavioural change only leads to a short-term success. Several hypotheses have been postulated, and many of them have been rejected due to some limitations and exceptions. The present review aims at presenting a new theory behind the regulation of energy intake, therefore providing an eye-opening field for energy balance and a potential strategy for obesity management.


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