scholarly journals It is Only Natural

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (116) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Arena ◽  
Gabriel Di Bella ◽  
Alfredo Cuevas ◽  
Borja Gracia ◽  
Vina Nguyen ◽  
...  

Estimates of the natural interest rate are often useful in the analysis of monetary and other macroeconomic policies. The topic gathered much attention following the great financial crisis and the Euro Area debt crisis due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of monetary policy normalization and the future path of interest rates. Using a sample of European countries (including several members of the Euro Area), this paper provides estimates of country-specific natural interest rates and some of their drivers between 2000 and 2019. In line with the literature, our findings suggest that natural interest rates declined during this period, and despite a rebound in the last few years of it, they have not recovered to their pre-crisis levels. The paper also discusses the implications of the decline in natural interest rates for monetary conditions and debt sustainability.

Author(s):  
Joanna Stawska

The study presents the impact of monetary-fiscal policy mix on economic growth, mainly for the investments of euro area in financial crisis. Fiscal policy and monetary policy play an important role in the economy, influencing each other and on a number of economic variables as well. In the face of the recent financial crisis, which turned into a debt crisis, fiscal and monetary authorities have been working together to revive economic activity. There was a significant economic impact on the level of government investments. The central bank kept interest rates at very low levels and used nonstandard instruments of monetary policy. Fiscal authorities have increased government spending to stimulate investment and economic recovery. The paper concludes that the management of the fiscal and monetary authorities in a crisis situation has been modified compared to the period before the crisis, when the coordination of these policies was clearly weaker.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Nikolayev ◽  

The article is devoted to the study of conditions of application and influence of non-traditional monetary policy of central banks of developed countries on national economies and economies of emerging market countries. Based on critical analysis and systematization of basic research on the analysis of non-traditional monetary policy and its impact on the economies of different countries, it is substantiated that non-traditional monetary policy is a set of measures aimed at restoring the transmission mechanism and eliminating financial market imbalances. The main tools of non-traditional monetary policy are - previous management, quantitative easing; credit easing; negative interest rates, qualitative mitigation. Relevant areas of research on the financial performance of economies were also justified, as monetary policy directly affects interest rates, money supply, exchange rates, availability of credit, and through the financial sector to other sectors of the economy. During the aggravation of the economic and debt crisis, which had a negative impact on the Eurozone countries, investors' interest in CEE countries increased due to higher interest rates and the opportunity to make more profits. The study of the impact of the ECB's monetary policy on the financial indicators of Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the ECB's unconventional policy, including quantitative easing aimed at lowering long-term interest rates, affected the yield on government bonds of almost all EU countries, not only member states. euro area, which generally declined after 2014. Non-traditional monetary policy and an increase in the ECB's balance sheet also affect investment flows to CEE countries, but are mainly debt instruments in both direct and portfolio investment. The opposite situation is observed in the Eurozone countries with a high debt burden, especially in Greece and Italy. Despite the fact that the ECB's policy has led the euro area countries with a high level of debt to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, there is a tendency to increase the share of public debt payments to GDP. In this situation, the ECB simply cannot significantly change the purpose of its monetary policy, because any, even small, increase in the discount rate will lead to a new debt crisis in the Eurozone with its epicenter in Italy and Greece. The study of the impact of non-traditional policies of the Bank of Japan, the Fed and the ECB on the economy of Ukraine confirms the hypothesis that the actions of the ECB have the greatest impact on the financial performance of Ukraine. The analysis shows the impact of non-traditional monetary policy on the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia to the euro, US dollar and Japanese yen, but it was not significant. This is due to the fact that monetary policy in Ukraine only in 2015 actually moved from a fixed exchange rate to a floating exchange rate and began to apply inflation targeting. Announcements of non-traditional monetary policy have also affected government bond yields and stock indices, but the Ukrainian stock market is underdeveloped and has little effect. The main influence was the first programs of non-traditional monetary policy of the ECB, the USA and the Bank of Japan. In times when non-traditional measures were just being introduced and difficult to regulate and predict. Thus, it was proved that, on the one hand, unconventional monetary policy can stimulate economic growth, and on the other hand, create significant risks for further monetary policy opportunities to counter future crises.


Ekonomika ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-58
Author(s):  
Tomas Reichenbachas

Abstract. In this paper, using the Taylor rule (Taylor, 1993), the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy in 2000–2012, as well as individual interest rate needs of the euro area (EA) countries are analysed. It is assumed that the estimated Taylor rule interest rates are optimal for individual members. We have analysed whether the actual ECB interest rates and the calculated rates are different and have become more balanced towards individual countries’ needs. The work focuses attention on the last period (2008–2012) when the EA faced economic problems and an asymmetric shock. The analysis shows controversial results: on the one hand, the interest deviation mean decreases (just a little), but an increasing gap between individual needs can be seen: some countries are becoming increasingly divorced from the general EA needs. It makes them very vulnerable, and there is a risk that these countries in the face of asymmetric challenges can be “left behind” by the ECB focusing on the EA as a whole. Also, in this paper, the stationarity of the calculated deviations is analysed to help understand their nature. This approach is new, and the author is unaware of similar works. Analysis of the optimal interest rate dynamics has revealed that Germany needed the interest rates that were opposite to the needs of Spain and Greece and susceptible to divergence, so this led to the ECB difficulties in determining the proper interest for all countries’ needs. The EA as a currency area is most optimal for Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Italy, and the Netherlands from the interest rate setting perspective.Key words: the Taylor rule, optimal monetary policy, asymmetric shocks, optimal currency area


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 581-615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Pažický

Research background: In this research paper, an attempt is made to evaluate the impacts of ECB’s unconventional monetary policy which has been applied after Global Financial Crisis. Because of the new economic and monetary conditions, the effectiveness of conventional monetary tools has been questioned. Purpose of the article: Designed models examine the consequences of unconventional monetary policy for macroeconomic variables, monetary variables and interest rates in the euro area. Particular attention is paid to the response of the price level, represented by HICP, to various monetary policy innovations. Except a shock in credit multiplier and asset purchase programme (APP), also the effectiveness of a conventional monetary tool, such as main refinancing operation (MRO) interest rate, is inspected. Methods: Use has been made of impulse responses from structural VAR models to analyze a large sample that covers the time horizon of 1999 to 2016. Several econometric tests are performed to provide a profound analysis. The conclusions from baseline models are verified in multiple robustness check models, which are specified under alternative conditions. Findings & Value added: It has been found that, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, conventional monetary instruments are effective in the short-run. In the long-run, unconventional monetary policy has a greater potential to stabilize the economy than the traditional interest rate transmission channel. The conclusions from the baseline models are verified in multiple robustness check models, which are specified under alternative conditions.


2004 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 93-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter McAdam ◽  
Julian Morgan

This paper examines the effects of changes in Euro Area interest rates using macroeconomic models. It examines the results of a harmonised monetary policy simulation at the Euro Area level using the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's Global Economic Model (NiGEM) and the European Central Bank's Area Wide Model (AWM). Comparison is also drawn with the aggregate results from Euro Area National Central Bank models as reported in van Els et al. (2001). Overall, the results across the different models are broadly consistent with what might be regarded as the stylised facts of the monetary transmission mechanism. That is to say that, following a policy tightening, there is an initial fall in output consisting of a more pronounced investment response and a less pronounced consumption response. This output fall is accompanied by protracted price dynamics.


2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.


Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.


2019 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-932
Author(s):  
Carlos Madeira ◽  
João Madeira

This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.


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