scholarly journals Future Sales Estimation using Patents

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Kamijo
Keyword(s):  
Early Development ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Brand Name ◽  
Development Stages ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Time

We propose a model to improve estimation accuracy of the future sales volume, focusing on pharmaceutical products, from their patents. Our approach is based on an analysis of patents obtained in the early development stages of the products. The development of pharmaceuticals often takes a long time (up to several decades in some cases), and the costs are huge, even exceeding one billion USD for just one product. Therefore, it is strongly desirable to estimate future sales volume at an early stage. One piece of information potentially useful for the estimation is the brand, i.e., the name of the developing company. Our model learns the sales volume and words used in multiple patent specifications and also focuses on the extent to which “seasonal” words are used. Experiments showed that our model much improved the accurately of the sales volume estimation compared with the case of just estimating from its brand name.

A Reflection on Crucial Periods in 50 Years of Social Psychology (in Germany)

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Katja Corcoran ◽  
Michael Häfner ◽  
Mathias Kauff ◽  
Stefan Stürmer
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Early Development ◽  
West Germany ◽  
East And West Germany ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
East And West

Abstract. In this article, we reflect on 50 years of the journal Social Psychology. We interviewed colleagues who have witnessed the history of the journal. Based on these interviews, we identified three crucial periods in Social Psychology’s history, that are (a) the early development and further professionalization of the journal, (b) the reunification of East and West Germany, and (c) the internationalization of the journal and its transformation from the Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie to Social Psychology. We end our reflection with a discussion of changes that occurred during these periods and their implication for the future of our field.

Alkohol im Tank – Bio-Kraftstoffe und die Grenzen moderner Mobilität

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (136) ◽  
pp. 455-468
Author(s):  
Hartwig Berger
Keyword(s):  
Third World ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
The Third ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Food Market ◽  
The One ◽  
The Third World

The article discusses the future of mobility in the light of energy resources. Fossil fuel will not be available for a long time - not to mention its growing environmental and political conflicts. In analysing the potential of biofuel it is argued that the high demands of modern mobility can hardly be fulfilled in the future. Furthermore, the change into using biofuel will probably lead to increasing conflicts between the fuel market and the food market, as well as to conflicts with regional agricultural networks in the third world. Petrol imperialism might be replaced by bio imperialism. Therefore, mobility on a solar base pursues a double strategy of raising efficiency on the one hand and strongly reducing mobility itself on the other.

To the memory of the geobotanist. Leonid E. Rodin (to the 100th anniversary of his birthday)

2007 ◽  
pp. 106-107
Author(s):  
B. K. Gannibal
Keyword(s):  
End Of Life ◽  
100Th Anniversary ◽  
State University ◽  
Botanical Institute ◽  
Komarov Botanical Institute ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Time ◽  
High Level

Leonid Efimovich Rodin (1907-1990) was a graduate of Leningrad state University. To him, the future is known geobotanica, happened to a course in Botanical geography is still at the N. A. Bush. His teachers were also A. P. Shennikov and A. A. Korchagin, who subsequently headed related Department of geobotany and Botanical geography of Leningrad state University. This was the first school scientist. And since the beginning of the 30s of XX century and until the end of life L. E. was an employee of the Department of geobotany of the Komarov Botanical Institute (RAS), where long time worked together with E. M. Lavrenko, V. B. Sochava, B. A. Tikhomirov, V. D. Alexandrova and many other high-level professionals, first continuing to learn and gain experience, then defining the direction of development of geobotany in the Institute and the country as a whole.

Hopf bifurcation for a discontinuous HTLV-1 model

Filomat ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 6247-6267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Shamsara ◽  
Zahra Afsharnezhad ◽  
Reihaneh Mostolizadeh
Keyword(s):  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Sliding Mode ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Discontinuous System ◽  
Steady State Condition ◽  
Ctl Response ◽  
Optimal Drug ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Immunosuppressive Diseases

Developing accurate mathematical models for host immune response in immunosuppressive diseases such as HIV and HTLV-1 are essential to achieve an optimal drug therapy regime. Since for HTLV-1 specific CTL response typically occurs after a time lag, we consider a discontinuous response function to better describe this lagged response during the early stage of the infectious, thus the system of HTLV-1 model will be a discontinuous system. For analyzing the dynamic of the system we use Filippov theory and find conditions in which the Filippov system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation. The Hopf bifurcation help us to find stable and unstable periodic oscillations and can be used to predict whether the CTL response can return to a steady state condition. Also, Hopf bifurcation in sliding mode is investigated. In this case the solutions will remain in the hyper-surface of discontinuity and as a consequence the disease cannot progress, at least for a long time. Finally we use numerical simulations to demonstrate the results by example.

The Phantom Defense: America's Pursuit of the Star Wars Illusion. By Craig Eisendrath, Melvin A. Goodman, and Gerald E. Marsh. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2001. 216p. $24.95. Ballistic Missile Defense and the Future of American Security: Agendas, Perceptions, Technology, and Policy. By Roger Handberg. Praeger, 2001. 264p. $62.00. Rockets' Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics. Edited by James J. Wirtz and Jeffrey A. Larsen. Boulder, CO: Westview, 2001. 368p. $28.50.

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 879-880
Author(s):  
David Goldfischer
Keyword(s):  
World Politics ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Missile Defense ◽  
Star Wars ◽  
Technological Context ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ballistic Missile Defense ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Strategic Defense ◽  
The Subject

As Michael O'Hanlon concludes in his excellent contribution to Rockets' Red Glare: “We should…get used to the debate over ballistic missile defenses. It has been around a long time, and no final resolution is imminent” (p. 132). In one sense, a review of these three recent books makes clear that many analysts had grown a bit too used to positioning themselves in terms of the 1972 ABM Treaty. Preoccupied with arguments over whether the treaty should be preserved, modified, or rewritten in light of a changing strategic and technological context, no one seemed to have anticipated that President George W. Bush would simply withdraw from it, invoking Article XV's provision that either party could withdraw if “extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests.” Even many strategic defense supporters who deemed the treaty obsolete (as Robert Joseph persuasively maintains in his contribution to Rockets' Red Glare) generally believed that it should only—and would only—be scrapped if negotiations over U.S.-proposed changes broke down. (“The Bush Administration,” surmises O'Hanlon, “will surely try very hard to amend it before going to such an extreme”) (p. 112). In the event, the president's team disavowed even the word “negotiation,” saying they were willing only to “consult” the Russians regarding the treaty's impending demise.

scholarly journals Platform Patterns—Using Proven Principles to Develop Digital Platforms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Drewel ◽  
Leon Özcan ◽  
Jürgen Gausemeier ◽  
Roman Dumitrescu
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Engineering ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Use Case ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Hands On ◽  
The Future ◽  
Platform Development ◽  
Strategic Options ◽  
Generic Design ◽  
Platform Economy

AbstractHardly any other area has as much disruptive potential as digital platforms in the course of digitalization. After serious changes have already taken place in the B2C sector with platforms such as Amazon and Airbnb, the B2B sector is on the threshold to the so-called platform economy. In mechanical engineering, pioneers like GE (PREDIX) and Claas (365FarmNet) are trying to get their hands on the act. This is hardly a promising option for small and medium-sized companies, as only a few large companies will survive. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are already facing the threat of losing direct consumer contact and becoming exchangeable executers. In order to prevent this, it is important to anticipate at an early stage which strategic options exist for the future platform economy and which adjustments to the product program should already be initiated today. Basically, medium-sized companies in particular lack a strategy for an advantageous entry into the future platform economy.The paper presents different approaches to master the challenges of participating in the platform economy by using platform patterns. Platform patterns represent proven principles of already existing platforms. We show how we derived a catalogue with 37 identified platform patterns. The catalogue has a generic design and can be customized for a specific use case. The versatility of the catalogue is underlined by three possible applications: (1) platform ideation, (2) platform development, and (3) platform characterization.

scholarly journals EU FP7 research funding for an orphan drug (Orfadin®) and vaccine (Hep C) development: a success and a failure?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Schmidt ◽  
O. Sehic ◽  
C. Wild
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Late Stage ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
Clinical Development ◽  
Clinical Indication ◽  
Market Authorisation ◽  
Risk Capital

Abstract Background We considered the extent of the contribution of publicly funded research to the late-stage clinical development of pharmaceuticals and medicinal products, based on the European Commission (EC) FP7 research funding programme. Using two EC FP7-HEALTH case study examples—representing two types of outcomes—we then estimated wider public and charitable research funding contributions. Methods Using the publicly available database of FP7-HEALTH funded projects, we identified awards relating to late-stage clinical development according to the systematic application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, classified them according to product type and clinical indication, and calculated total EC funding amounts. We then identified two case studies representing extreme outcomes: failure to proceed with the product (hepatitis C vaccine) and successful market authorisation (Orfadin® for alkaptonuria). Total public and philanthropic research funding contributions to these products were then estimated using publicly available information on funding. Results 12.3% (120/977) of all EC FP7-HEALTH awards related to the funding of late-stage clinical research, totalling € 686,871,399. Pharmaceutical products and vaccines together accounted for 84% of these late-stage clinical development research awards and 70% of its funding. The hepatitis C vaccine received total European Community (FP7 and its predecessor, EC Framework VI) funding of €13,183,813; total public and charitable research funding for this product development was estimated at € 77,060,102. The industry sponsor does not consider further development of this product viable; this now represents public risk investment. FP7 funding for the late-stage development of Orfadin® for alkaptonuria was so important that the trials it funded formed the basis for market authorisation, but it is not clear whether the price of the treatment (over €20,000 per patient per year) adequately reflects the substantial public funding contribution. Conclusions Public and charitable research funding plays an essential role, not just in early stage basic research, but also in the late-stage clinical development of products prior to market authorisation. In addition, it provides risk capital for failed products. Within this context, we consider further discussions about a public return on investment and its reflection in pricing policies and decisions justified.

Effects of Isothermal Aging on Clustering and Paint-Bake Hardening Behavior in an Al-Mg-Si Alloy

2014 ◽  
Vol 794-796 ◽  
pp. 897-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuhiro Aruga ◽  
Masaya Kozuka ◽  
Yasuo Takaki ◽  
Tatsuo Sato
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Natural Aging ◽  
Atom Probe ◽  
Bake Hardening ◽  
Subsequent Aging ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Β Phase ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Hardness Increase ◽  
Small Clusters

The relationship between the cluster morphology formed during natural or artificial aging and the paint-bake hardening response in an Al-0.62Mg-0.93Si (mass%) alloy have been investigated using atom probe tomography (APT). Increasing the subsequent aging time at 170 °C causes a gradual increase in hardness in the artificially aged materials, while the retardation period of the hardness increase appears in the naturally aged materials at the early stage of aging. The statistically-proved records in the APT analysis have shown that the artificially aged materials have some large clusters. It is revealed that the hardening at the early stage of the subsequent aging at 170 °C is not promoted in the long-time naturally aged material although the number density of small clusters increases approximately 1.3 times by prolonged natural aging.Hence, we believe that the small clusters are hard to transform continuously into the β'' phase during aging at 170 °C. As for the naturally aged materials, the long-time aging leads to a significant drop in hardness at the early stage of aging at 170 °C. It is speculated that the Mg-Si mixed clusters formed after long-time natural aging can be reversed during the subsequent heat treatment.

Assessment of 2D ultrasound fluid volume estimation accuracy in different shaped objects: an in vitro study

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-259
Author(s):  
Iroshani Kodikara ◽  
Iroshini Abeysekara ◽  
Dhanusha Gamage ◽  
Isurani Ilayperuma
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Error ◽  
In Vitro Study ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Rater Agreement ◽  
Actual Volume ◽  
2D Ultrasound ◽  
One Way Anova

Background Volume estimation of organs using two-dimensional (2D) ultrasonography is frequently warranted. Considering the influence of estimated volume on patient management, maintenance of its high accuracy is empirical. However, data are scarce regarding the accuracy of estimated volume of non-globular shaped objects of different volumes. Purpose To evaluate the volume estimation accuracy of different shaped and sized objects using high-end 2D ultrasound scanners. Material and Methods Globular (n=5); non-globular elongated (n=5), and non-globular near-spherical shaped (n=4) hollow plastic objects were scanned to estimate the volumes; actual volumes were compared with estimated volumes. T-test and one-way ANOVA were used to compare means; P<0.05 was considered significant. Results The actual volumes of the objects were in the range of 10–445 mL; estimated volumes ranged from 6.4–425 mL ( P=0.067). The estimated volume was lower than the actual volume; such volume underestimation was marked for non-globular elongated objects. Regardless of the scanner, the highest volume estimation error was for non-globular elongated objects (<40%) followed by non-globular near-spherical shaped objects (<23.88%); the lowest was for globular objects (<3.6%). Irrespective of the shape or the volume of the object, volume estimation difference among the scanners was not significant: globular (F=0.430, P=0.66); non-globular elongated (F=3.69, P=0.064); and non-globular near-spherical (F=4.00, P=0.06). A good inter-rater agreement (R=0.99, P<0.001) and a good correlation between actual versus estimated volumes (R=0.98, P<0.001) were noted. Conclusion The 2D ultrasonography can be recommended for volume estimation purposes of different shaped and different sized objects, regardless the type of the high-end scanner used.

Targets, triggers, and directionality in non-local and local place assimilation in child and adult language

2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-307
Author(s):  
Mi-Hui Cho ◽  
Shinsook Lee
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Early Development ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Diary Study ◽  
Consonant Harmony ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Place Assimilation ◽  
Korean Child ◽  
Non Local

Abstract Data collected from one Korean child in a longitudinal diary study present novel patterns of consonant harmony in that labials, coronals, and velars can be triggers and targets of both progressive and regressive non-local place assimilation in an early stage of development. The same child also shows some cases of local regressive place assimilation. In another study where 4 children's data were gathered from a naturalistic longitudinal study, local regressive place assimilation as well as conso-nant harmony is witnessed regardless of place features. In adult Korean, however, only coronal to labial/velar and labial to velar local regressive assimilation occurs. This paper argues that the non-local and local place assimilation is connected and shows that the connection can be accounted for in terms of different constraint rankings within the Optimality-theoretic framework. More specifically, it is shown that the Ident-Onset(place) constraint plays a decisive role even in the early stage of acquisition, unlike child English, accounting for the predominant regressive assimilation. Also, the Agree-Place constraint is exploded into two sub-constraints in Stage 3, capturing the asymmetrical behavior of assimilation. Further, the unranking of place features in early development gradually evolves to the fixed ranking which reflects the universal markedness hierarchy in adult Korean.

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