scholarly journals Turning points in agriculture development in Ukraine: results of analysis on the base of purified data

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
Viktoriia Dmytriieva ◽  
Yurii Sviatets
Keyword(s):  
Economic History ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Comparison Method ◽  
Correlated Data ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Filter Methods ◽  
Agriculture Development ◽  
Wrong Interpretation

Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to study agriculture development in independent Ukraine using methods for decomposition of data sets to obtain structural components according to their level of determination and to investigate main tendencies without random fluctuation. Methodology / approach. This research uses econometrics methods of regression and correlation dynamics, data filtering from random factors impact, comparison method to reconstruct trends in agriculture development. The accent is made on the differences between results of analysis on the base of uncleaned and purified data. The cleaning process was made by the Hodrick-Prescott method for data sets decomposition without loss of information into several functions that describe behavior of system formed under deterministic, periodical, and stochastic influence. The calculations and their visualization were held by means of GNU Octave. The research covered the period of 1996–2018 years in development of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in Ukraine. Results. This paper emphasizes on the necessity to clean data before its analysis. Unlike the analysis based on the raw data the reconstruction of relationships between filtered data sets allows building models of agriculture dynamics more precisely. The article presents reconstructed main correlated dynamics that were formed by deterministic impacts in Ukraine agriculture. Besides, the crucial turning points in Ukraine agriculture development were revealed because of analysis of filtered data. It is shown how data cleaning raises analysis quality. Originality / scientific novelty. Reconstruction of economy regression models on the dynamic data sets can be followed by the risks of wrong interpretation of results. To have correct explanation of regularity it matters to eliminate from data sets the fluctuations formed by random impacts and to study relation of tendencies in connection with structural shifts in the development of the country. The advisability and the necessity to use such approaches are proved by this research that was held on the base of statistical data from World Bank official site. It is the first reconstruction of the long-term agriculture dynamics of Ukraine on the base of filtered correlated data sets of 1996–2018. The main advantages of this research are the revealed turning points in Ukraine agriculture development that can be used by other researchers in investigation of economy and economic history. Practical value / implications. To raise precision of analysis and avoid wrong interpretation of outcomes it should be taken into consideration all factors that impact on events and thus it is rational to verify data and clean them from random oscillations especially studying long-term tendencies in the development of such systems as economy branches or country entire. Moreover, it helps to reveal peaks of growth and recession points in business activity and make more coherent predictions on the future development. The article presented the effectiveness of filter methods applying and results of analysis that can be used in management and forecast of long-term development in Ukraine agriculture. Such methodic can be applied to the analysis of both individual industries and the economy as a whole.

Financial Folly and Spain’s Black Legend

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Drelichman ◽  
Hans-Joachim Voth
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Great Flexibility ◽  
Loan Contracts ◽  
Historical Tradition ◽  
Black Legend ◽  
Contractual Obligations ◽  
The Relationship

This epilogue argues that Castile was solvent throughout Philip II's reign. A complex web of contractual obligations designed to ensure repayment governed the relationship between the king and his bankers. The same contracts allowed great flexibility for both the Crown and bankers when liquidity was tight. The risk of potential defaults was not a surprise; their likelihood was priced into the loan contracts. As a consequence, virtually every banking family turned a profit over the long term, while the king benefited from their services to run the largest empire that had yet existed. The epilogue then looks at the economic history version of Spain's Black Legend. The economic history version of the Black Legend emerged from a combination of two narratives: a rich historical tradition analyzing the decline of Spain as an economic and military power from the seventeenth century onward, combined with new institutional analysis highlighting the unconstrained power of the monarch.

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders: Employment Issues in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 58-69
Author(s):  
Marlene Kim
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Asian Americans ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Pacific Islanders ◽  
Native Hawaiians ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
High Poverty ◽  
Unemployment Rates

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) in the United States face problems of discrimination, the glass ceiling, and very high long-term unemployment rates. As a diverse population, although some Asian Americans are more successful than average, others, like those from Southeast Asia and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPIs), work in low-paying jobs and suffer from high poverty rates, high unemployment rates, and low earnings. Collecting more detailed and additional data from employers, oversampling AAPIs in current data sets, making administrative data available to researchers, providing more resources for research on AAPIs, and enforcing nondiscrimination laws and affirmative action mandates would assist this population.

Epidemiological Evidence that Maternal Influenza Contributes to the Aetiology of Schizophrenia

1993 ◽  
Vol 163 (4) ◽  
pp. 522-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Adams ◽  
R. E. Kendell ◽  
E. H. Hare ◽  
P. Munk-Jørgensen
Keyword(s):  
Data Sets ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Epidemiological Evidence ◽  
Intrauterine Development ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Schizophrenic Patients ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Monthly Incidence ◽  
Maternal Influenza

The epidemiological evidence that the offspring of women exposed to influenza in pregnancy are at increased risk of schizophrenia is conflicting. In an attempt to clarify the issue we explored the relationship between the monthly incidence of influenza (and measles) in the general population and the distribution of birth dates of three large series of schizophrenic patients - 16 960 Scottish patients born in 1932–60; 22 021 English patients born in 1921–60; and 18 723 Danish patients born in 1911–65. Exposure to the 1957 epidemic of A2 influenza in midpregnancy was associated with an increased incidence of schizophrenia, at least in females, in all three data sets. We also confirmed the previous report of a statistically significant long-term relationship between patients' birth dates and outbreaks of influenza in the English series, with time lags of - 2 and - 3 months (the sixth and seventh months of pregnancy). Despite several other negative studies by ourselves and others we conclude that these relationships are probably both genuine and causal; and that maternal influenza during the middle third of intrauterine development, or something closely associated with it, is implicated in the aetiology of some cases of schizophrenia.

scholarly journals A Novel LSTM Model with Interaction Dual Attention for Radar Echo Extrapolation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Chuyao Luo ◽  
Xutao Li ◽  
Yongliang Wen ◽  
Yunming Ye ◽  
Xiaofeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Hidden States ◽  
Better Than

The task of precipitation nowcasting is significant in the operational weather forecast. The radar echo map extrapolation plays a vital role in this task. Recently, deep learning techniques such as Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (ConvRNN) models have been designed to solve the task. These models, albeit performing much better than conventional optical flow based approaches, suffer from a common problem of underestimating the high echo value parts. The drawback is fatal to precipitation nowcasting, as the parts often lead to heavy rains that may cause natural disasters. In this paper, we propose a novel interaction dual attention long short-term memory (IDA-LSTM) model to address the drawback. In the method, an interaction framework is developed for the ConvRNN unit to fully exploit the short-term context information by constructing a serial of coupled convolutions on the input and hidden states. Moreover, a dual attention mechanism on channels and positions is developed to recall the forgotten information in the long term. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted on CIKM AnalytiCup 2017 data sets, and the results show the effectiveness of the IDA-LSTM in addressing the underestimation drawback. The extrapolation performance of IDA-LSTM is superior to that of the state-of-the-art methods.

scholarly journals LOWER BOUNDS OF CHARACTERISTIC SCALE OF TOPOLOGICAL MODIFICATION OF THE NEWTONIAN GRAVITATION

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (05) ◽  
pp. 1250048
Author(s):  
L. IORIO
Keyword(s):  
Semimajor Axis ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Orbital Elements ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Spatial Direction ◽  
Newtonian Gravitation ◽  
Complementary Approach ◽  
Local Modification

We analytically work out the long-term orbital perturbations induced by the leading order of perturbing potential arising from the local modification of the Newton's inverse square law due to a topology ℝ2 × 𝕊1 with a compactified dimension of radius R recently proposed by Floratos and Leontaris. We neither restrict to any specific spatial direction [Formula: see text] for the asymmetry axis nor to particular orbital configurations of the test particle. Thus, our results are quite general. Nonvanishing long-term variations occur for all the usual osculating Keplerian orbital elements, apart from the semimajor axis which is left unaffected. By using recent improvements in the determination of the orbital motion of Saturn from Cassini data, we preliminarily inferred R ≳ 4-6 kau . As a complementary approach, the putative topological effects should be explicitly modeled and solved-for with a modified version of the ephemerides dynamical models with which the same data sets should be reprocessed.

Mercantilism Revisited

1980 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 773-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Extreme Case ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
The Status

The intention of this paper is to look at some of the problems which arise in attempts to provide ‘explanations’ of mercantilism and especially its English manifestations. By ‘explanations’ I mean the efforts which some writers have made causally to relate the historical appearance of sets of economic notions or general recommendations on economic policy or even acts of economic policy by the state to particular long-term phenomena of, or trends in, economic history. Historians of economic thought have not generally made such attempts. With a few exceptions they have normally concerned themselves with tracing and analysing the contributions to economic theory made by those labelled as mercantilists. The most extreme case of non-explanation is provided by Eli Heckscher's reiterated contention in his two massive volumes that mercantilism was not to be explained by reference to the economic circumstances of the time; mercantilist policy was not to be seen as ‘the outcome of the economic situation’; mercantilist writers did not construct their system ‘out of any knowledge of reality however derived’. So strongly held an antideterminist fortress, however congenial a haven for some historians of ideas, has given no comfort to other historians – economic or political, Marxist or non-Marxist – who obstinately exhibit empiricist tendencies. Some forays against the fortress have been made. Barry Supple's analysis of English commerce in the early seventeenth century and the resulting presentation of mercantilist thought and policy as ‘the economics of depression’ has passed into the textbooks and achieved the status of an orthodoxy.

Consistency of long-term marketable yield of carrot and onion cultivars in muck (organic) soil in relation to seasonal weather

2010 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 755-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Tesfaendrias ◽  
M. R. McDonald ◽  
J. Warland
Keyword(s):  
Allium Cepa ◽  
Daucus Carota ◽  
Organic Soil ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Fresh Market ◽  
Marketable Yield ◽  
Daucus Carota L ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
The Mean

To identify carrot and onion cultivars that provide consistent marketable yields, we tracked the yields of five fresh market carrot [(Daucus carota L. subsp. sativus (Hoffm.) Arcang.] and six onion (Allium cepa L.) cultivars for at least 13 yr. Relationships between long-term weather variables and marketable yields were also investigated. The effects of cultivar, year and cultivar × year interactions on yield of carrots and onions were assessed. Cultivar and year had significant effects on carrot and onion yields, while the interaction was significant in only one of four data sets of carrot yield. Carrot cv. Cellobunch (95.4 t ha–1) and onion cv. Corona (74.1 t ha–1) had the highest mean marketable yields over the years studied. There was a slight positive correlation between mean yield of the assessed carrots and maximum temperatures in September (r = 0.44). Mean carrot yield was also somewhat negatively correlated with total rainfall in July (r = –0.43) and with number of days with rain in August (r = –0.43) and September (r = –0.44). Most onion cultivars showed stronger relationships between marketable yield and various weather patterns. Marketable yield of onions increased with an increase in the number of days with rainfall in June (r = 0.57). The mean marketable yield of the six onion cultivars decreased in relation to temperatures ≥30°C in June (r = –0.55) and August (r = –0.53). The mean yield of all the onions in the trials was negatively correlated (r = –0.78) with growing degree days (base 5°C, May to August). The results indicated that the data from long-term cultivar trials can be used to identify cultivars that yield well despite seasonal variations in weather. Key words: Daucus carota, Allium cepa, temperature, rainfall

scholarly journals Enhanced Care Assistant Training to Address the Workforce Crisis in Home Care: Changes Related to Job Satisfaction and Career Commitment

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constance L. Coogle ◽  
Iris A. Parham ◽  
Rita Jablonski ◽  
Jason A. Rachel
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Home Care ◽  
Career Commitment ◽  
Management Training ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Training Models ◽  
Intrinsic Job Satisfaction

Changes in job satisfaction and career commitment were observed as a consequence of a geriatric case management training program focusing on skills development among personal care attendants in home care. A comparison of pretraining and posttraining scores uncovered a statistically significant increase in Intrinsic Job Satisfaction scores for participants 18–39 years of age, whereas levels declined among the group of middle aged participants and no change was observed among participants age 52 and older. On the other hand, a statistically significant decline in Extrinsic Job Satisfaction was documented over all participants, but this was found to be primarily due to declines among participants 40–51 years of age. When contacted 6–12 months after the training series had concluded, participants indicated that the training substantially increased the likelihood that they would stay in their current jobs and improved their job satisfaction to some extent. A comparison of pretraining and posttraining scores among participants providing follow-up data revealed a statistically significant improvement in levels of Career Resilience. These results are discussed as they relate to similar training models and national data sets, and recommendations are offered for targeting future educational programs designed to address the long-term care workforce shortage.

scholarly journals Indicators of AEI Applied to the Delaware Estuary

2002 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 169-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence W. Barnthouse ◽  
Douglas G. Heimbuch ◽  
Vaughn C. Anthony ◽  
Ray W. Hilborn ◽  
Ransom A. Myers
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Juvenile Fish ◽  
Fish Populations ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Delaware Estuary ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Trends Analysis ◽  
Definition Of

We evaluated the impacts of entrainment and impingement at the Salem Generating Station on fish populations and communities in the Delaware Estuary. In the absence of an agreed-upon regulatory definition of “adverse environmental impact” (AEI), we developed three independent benchmarks of AEI based on observed or predicted changes that could threaten the sustainability of a population or the integrity of a community.Our benchmarks of AEI included: (1) disruption of the balanced indigenous community of fish in the vicinity of Salem (the “BIC” analysis); (2) a continued downward trend in the abundance of one or more susceptible fish species (the “Trends” analysis); and (3) occurrence of entrainment/impingement mortality sufficient, in combination with fishing mortality, to jeopardize the future sustainability of one or more populations (the “Stock Jeopardy” analysis).The BIC analysis utilized nearly 30 years of species presence/absence data collected in the immediate vicinity of Salem. The Trends analysis examined three independent data sets that document trends in the abundance of juvenile fish throughout the estuary over the past 20 years. The Stock Jeopardy analysis used two different assessment models to quantify potential long-term impacts of entrainment and impingement on susceptible fish populations. For one of these models, the compensatory capacities of the modeled species were quantified through meta-analysis of spawner-recruit data available for several hundred fish stocks.All three analyses indicated that the fish populations and communities of the Delaware Estuary are healthy and show no evidence of an adverse impact due to Salem. Although the specific models and analyses used at Salem are not applicable to every facility, we believe that a weight of evidence approach that evaluates multiple benchmarks of AEI using both retrospective and predictive methods is the best approach for assessing entrainment and impingement impacts at existing facilities.

scholarly journals Determining Long-Term Trends of Four Fast-Eutrophicated Lakes in China and Finland

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengna Liao ◽  
Ge Yu ◽  
Anne-Mari Ventelä ◽  
Xuhui Dong
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Sharp Change ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Nutrient Changes ◽  
Water Quality Trends

<p>Lake eutrophication has increased in pace in recent decades and has caused serious environmental problems However, the development trends have not been fully determined as it is difficult to recognize complex effects emanating from both climate and human mechanisms. China has many lakes in different trophic stages, which represent three developing stages from forest- to agriculture-, and then to urban-lake, typically in Lakes Lugu, Taibai, and Taihu. To determine long-term water quality trends, the three lakes were chosen for statistic analysis on dominant effects on the diatom-inferred nutrient changes, and to undertake dynamic modelling regarding climate-controlled nutrient changes. The results indicate the significant turning points of water quality in Lakes Lugu, Taibai and Taihu occurring in the 1990s, 1950s and 1940s respectively, which were effected from human activities by increases in tourism, farming and urbanization respectively. Water quality changes in Lakes Lugu, Taibai and Taihu captured 68.4%, 54.9%, and 86.0% of the temperature variations before the turning points. The anthropogenic impacts explained 84.0%, 96.4% and 96.0% of the water quality variations after the turning points, where the sharp change of water quality by human activity has played an accelerated effect on the gentle change of temperature. Compared with the 4 phases of water quality development in Pyhäjärvi Lake (SW Finland), Lakes Lugu and Taibai have experienced the 1<sup>st</sup> and 2<sup>nd</sup> phases, and Taihu has experienced from the 2<sup>nd</sup> to 3<sup>rd</sup> phases during the last 150 years. Phase 4 has not occurred in the three lakes, but it is a key period during the eutropication we need to pay attentions.</p>

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