The following discussion is focused around a consideration of what will be termed a ‘long population cycle’ from the late thirteenth century through to the late seventeenth century. In so far as this consideration is directed towards a society that may be unambiguously categorized as ‘preindustrial’ throughout this era, it is unavoidable that at various stages of the argument it will be necessary to engage with the classical Malthusian model of the relationship between living standards and population growth rates, although some assessment will be made of the role played by epidemic disease in determining both the width and depth of the cycle. In addition an attempt will be made to chart the principal changes to the economy and society relating to shifting numbers and geographical distribution of persons on the land during the extensive phases of demographic decline and recovery. Before engaging with theory and explanations of long-term trends some mundanely empirical steps will be taken so that the broad dimensions of the ‘cycle’ might be established. Empiricism is no straightforward endeavour in the absence of serial census records of any kind, let alone individual census counts for randomly distributed moments, over this extensive fourcentury period. It is at least fortunate that the final 150 years of the cycle yield evidence from parish registers, which in recent years have been exploited by historical demographers in ways that make it possible to establish annual population totals and vital rates from 1541. In attempting to establish population trends and totals before a system of parochial registration of baptisms, marriages, and burials was in place, historians succumb to what Sir Michael Postan (1966: 561) once termed the ‘lure of aggregates’ by engaging in decidedly problematic, although unavoidable, exercises. In this present discussion we are in danger of incurring Postan’s wrath since we employ one central and vital source that relates to demographic conditions in one year only, around which a key argument in this discussion revolves.
