Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions (RECONCILE): activities and results

Abstract. The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

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Stratospheric ozone depletion from future nitrous oxide increases

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-13-29447-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 29447-29481

Author(s):

W. Wang ◽

W. Tian ◽

S. Dhomse ◽

F. Xie ◽

J. Shu

Keyword(s):

Nitrous Oxide ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Chemical Effect ◽

Mixing Ratios ◽

Ozone Trends ◽

The Impact ◽

Middle Stratosphere

Abstract. We have investigated the impact of assumed nitrous oxide (N2O) increases on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics by a series of idealized simulations. In a future cooler stratosphere the net yield of NOy from a changed N2O is known to decrease, but NOy can still be significantly increased by the increase of N2O. Results with a coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) show that increases in N2O of 50%/100% between 2001 and 2050 result in more ozone destruction, causing a reduction in ozone mixing ratios of maximally 6%/10% in the middle stratosphere at around 10 hPa. This enhanced destruction could cause an ozone decline in the second half of this century in the middle stratosphere. However, the total ozone column still shows an increase in future decades, though the increase of 50%/100% in N2O caused a 2%/6% decrease in TCO compared with the reference simulation. N2O increases have significant effects on ozone trends at 20–10 hPa in the tropics and at northern high latitude, but have no significant effect on ozone trends in the Antarctic stratosphere. The ozone depletion potential for N2O in a future climate depends both on stratospheric temperature changes and tropospheric N2O changes, which have reversed effects on ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere. A 50% CO2 increase in conjunction with a 50% N2O increase cause significant ozone depletion in the middle stratosphere and lead to an increase of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Based on the multiple linear regression analysis and a series of sensitivity simulations, we find that the chemical effect of N2O increases dominates the ozone changes in the stratosphere while the dynamical and radiative effects of N2O increases are insignificant on average. However, the dynamical effect of N2O increases may cause large local changes in ozone mixing ratios, particularly, in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere.

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Robust effects of springtime Arctic ozone depletion on surface climate

10.21203/rs.3.rs-496081/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marina Friedel ◽

Gabriel Chiodo ◽

Andrea Stenke ◽

Daniela Domeisen ◽

Stephan Fueglistaler ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ozone Depletion ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Negative Temperature ◽

Significant Degree ◽

The Arctic ◽

Surface Climate ◽

Northern Hemispheric ◽

The Impact

Abstract Massive spring ozone loss due to anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting substances is not limited to the austral hemisphere, but can also occur in the Arctic. Previous studies have suggested a link between springtime Arctic ozone depletion and Northern Hemispheric surface climate, which might add surface predictability. However, so far it has not been possible to isolate the role of stratospheric ozone from dynamical downward impacts. For the first time, we quantify the impact of springtime Arctic ozone depletion on surface climate using observations and targeted chemistry-climate model experiments to isolate the effects of ozone feedbacks. We find that springtime stratospheric ozone depletion is followed by surface anomalies in precipitation and temperature resembling a positive Arctic Oscillation. Most notably, we show that these anomalies, affecting large portions of the Northern Hemisphere, cannot be explained by dynamical variability alone, but are to a significant degree driven by stratospheric ozone. The surface signal is linked to reduced shortwave absorption by stratospheric ozone, forcing persistent negative temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and a delayed breakup of the polar vortex - analogous to ozone-surface coupling in the Southern Hemisphere.These results suggest that Arctic stratospheric ozone actively forces springtime Northern Hemispheric surface climate and thus provides a source of predictability on seasonal scales.

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Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Extremes on Arctic High Cloud

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3239 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Karen Smith ◽

Sarah Maleska ◽

John Virgin

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Arctic Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion ◽

High Cloud ◽

The Impact

Stratospheric ozone depletion in the Antarctic is well known to cause changes in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate; however, because of its smaller magnitude in the Arctic, the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on Northern Hemisphere tropospheric climate are not as obvious or well understood. Recent research using both global climate models and observational data has determined that the impact of ozone depletion on ozone extremes can affect interannual variability in tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in spring. To further this work, we use a coupled chemistry&#8211;climate model to examine the difference in high cloud between years with anomalously low and high Arctic stratospheric ozone concentrations. We find that low ozone extremes during the late twentieth century, when ozone-depleting substances (ODS) emissions are higher, are related to a decrease in upper tropospheric stability and an increase in high cloud fraction, which may contribute to enhanced Arctic surface warming in spring through a positive longwave cloud radiative effect. A better understanding of how Arctic climate is affected by ODS emissions, ozone depletion, and ozone extremes will lead to improved predictions of Arctic climate and its associated feedbacks with atmospheric fields as ozone levels recover.

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Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Extremes on Arctic High Cloud

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0867.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (20) ◽

pp. 8869-8884

Author(s):

Sarah Maleska ◽

Karen L. Smith ◽

John Virgin

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Arctic Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion ◽

High Cloud ◽

The Impact

AbstractStratospheric ozone depletion in the Antarctic is well known to cause changes in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate; however, because of its smaller magnitude in the Arctic, the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on Northern Hemisphere tropospheric climate are not as obvious or well understood. Recent research using both global climate models and observational data has determined that the impact of ozone depletion on ozone extremes can affect interannual variability in tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in spring. To further this work, we use a coupled chemistry–climate model to examine the difference in high cloud between years with anomalously low and high Arctic stratospheric ozone concentrations. We find that low ozone extremes during the late twentieth century, when ozone-depleting substances (ODS) emissions are higher, are related to a decrease in upper tropospheric stability and an increase in high cloud fraction, which may contribute to enhanced Arctic surface warming in spring through a positive longwave cloud radiative effect. A better understanding of how Arctic climate is affected by ODS emissions, ozone depletion, and ozone extremes will lead to improved predictions of Arctic climate and its associated feedbacks with atmospheric fields as ozone levels recover.

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Impacts of stratospheric ozone extremes on Arctic high cloud

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9282 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Karen Smith ◽

Sarah Maleska ◽

John Virgin

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Arctic Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion ◽

High Cloud ◽

The Impact

Stratospheric ozone depletion in the Antarctic is well known to cause changes in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate; however, due to its smaller magnitude in the Arctic, the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on Northern Hemisphere tropospheric climate are not as obvious or well understood. Recent research using both global climate models and observational data has determined that the impact of ozone depletion on ozone extremes can affect interannual variability in tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in spring. To further this work, we use a coupled chemistry-climate model to examine the difference in high cloud between years with anomalously low and high Arctic stratospheric ozone concentrations. We find that low ozone extremes during the late twentieth century, when ODS emissions are higher, are related to a decrease in upper tropospheric stability and an increase in high cloud fraction, which may have contributed to Arctic surface warming via a positive longwave cloud radiative effect in the past few decades compared to other regions. A better understanding of how Arctic climate is affected by ODS emissions, ozone depletion and ozone extremes will lead to improved predictions of Arctic climate and its associated feedbacks with atmospheric fields as ozone levels recover.

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The Diurnal Variation in Stratospheric Ozone from MACC Reanalysis, ERA-Interim, WACCM, and Earth Observation Data: Characteristics and Intercomparison

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12050625 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 625

Author(s):

Ansgar Schanz ◽

Klemens Hocke ◽

Niklaus Kämpfer ◽

Simon Chabrillat ◽

Antje Inness ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Diurnal Variation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Model Systems ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

The Arctic ◽

Observation Data ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Free Running

In this study, we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone of the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis, ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), and the free-running WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). The diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone results from photochemical and dynamical processes depending on altitude, latitude, and season. MACC reanalysis and WACCM use similar chemistry modules and calculate a similar diurnal cycle in ozone when it is caused by a photochemical variation. The results of the two model systems are confirmed by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and three selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (tropics), Bern, Switzerland (midlatitudes), and Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (high latitudes). On the other hand, the ozone product of ERA-Interim shows considerably less diurnal variation due to photochemical variations. The global maxima of diurnal variation occur at high latitudes in summer, e.g., near the Arctic NDACC site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. The local OZORAM radiometer observes this effect in good agreement with MACC reanalysis and WACCM. The sensed diurnal variation at Ny-Ålesund is up to 8% (0.4 ppmv) due to photochemical variations in summer and negligible during the dynamically dominated winter. However, when dynamics play a major role for the diurnal ozone variation as in the lower stratosphere (100–20 hPa), the reanalysis models ERA-Interim and MACC which assimilate data from radiosondes and satellites outperform the free-running WACCM. Such a domain is the Antarctic polar winter where a surprising novel feature of diurnal variation is indicated by MACC reanalysis and ERA-Interim at the edge of the polar vortex. This effect accounts for up to 8% (0.4 ppmv) in both model systems. In summary, MACC reanalysis provides a global description of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone caused by dynamics and photochemical variations. This is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and other research which is based on merged satellite data or measurements at different local time.

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Record springtime stratospheric ozone depletion at 80°N in 2020

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8892 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ramina Alwarda ◽

Kristof Bognar ◽

Kimberly Strong ◽

Martyn Chipperfield ◽

Sandip Dhomse ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ozone Depletion ◽

Transport Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

The Arctic ◽

Optical Absorption Spectroscopy ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Polar Stratospheric Clouds ◽

Ozone Loss ◽

Stratospheric Clouds

The Arctic winter of 2019-2020 was characterized by an unusually persistent polar vortex and temperatures in the lower stratosphere that were consistently below the threshold for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). These conditions led to ozone loss that is comparable to the Antarctic ozone hole. Ground-based measurements from a suite of instruments at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) in Eureka, Canada (80.05&#176;N, 86.42&#176;W) were used to investigate chemical ozone depletion. The vortex was located above Eureka longer than in any previous year in the 20-year dataset and lidar measurements provided evidence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) above Eureka. Additionally, UV-visible zenith-sky Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements showed record ozone loss in the 20-year dataset, evidence of denitrification along with the slowest increase of NO2 during spring, as well as enhanced reactive halogen species (OClO and BrO). Complementary measurements of HCl and ClONO2 (chlorine reservoir species) from a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer showed unusually low columns that were comparable to 2011, the previous year with significant chemical ozone depletion. Record low values of HNO3 in the FTIR dataset are in accordance with the evidence of PSCs and a denitrified atmosphere. Estimates of chemical ozone loss were derived using passive ozone from the SLIMCAT offline chemical transport model to account for dynamical contributions to the stratospheric ozone budget.

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Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-11-10875-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 10875-10933 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

I. Cionni ◽

V. Eyring ◽

J. F. Lamarque ◽

W. J. Randel ◽

D. S. Stevenson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Satellite Observations ◽

High Latitudes ◽

The Future ◽

Column Ozone

Abstract. A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multi-model mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and PUCCINI) and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23 W m−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08 W m−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05 W m−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05 W m−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1 W m−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

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Evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Chemistry-Climate Model

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-15-19161-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (13) ◽

pp. 19161-19196

Author(s):

K. A. Stone ◽

O. Morgenstern ◽

D. J. Karoly ◽

A. R. Klekociuk ◽

W. J. R. French ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Zonal Wind ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Similar Amount ◽

Earth System ◽

Total Column Ozone ◽

Australian Community ◽

Community Climate

Abstract. Chemistry climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth System. In particular, they are used for assessing the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO) distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 show a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. A significant innovation is the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (up to 26.4 % at Davis during winter) and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10.1 K at the South Pole) outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centered around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux) are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The models inability to explicitly simulated supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. The simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index compares well with ERA-Interim data. Accompanying these modulations of the SAM, 50 hPa zonal wind differences between 2001–2010 and 1979–1998 show increasing zonal wind strength southward of 60° S during December for both the model simulations and ERA-Interim data. These model diagnostics shows that the model reasonably captures the stratospheric ozone driven chemistry-climate interactions important for Australian climate and weather while highlighting areas for future model development.

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The Influence of Ozone Feedbacks on Surface Climate following Spring Arctic Ozone Depletion

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12668 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marina Friedel ◽

Gabriel Chiodo ◽

Andrea Stenke ◽

Daniela Domeisen ◽

Stefan Muthers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ozone Depletion ◽

Arctic Oscillation ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

The Arctic ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Temperature Anomalies ◽

Surface Climate ◽

Anomalous Surface ◽

Surface Weather ◽

Surface Patterns

Links between springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies and anomalous surface weather in the Northern Hemisphere have been found recently. Stratospheric ozone thus provides valuable information which may help to improve seasonal predictability. However, the extent and causality of the ozone-surface climate coupling remain unclear and many state-of-the-art forecast models lack any representation of ozone feedbacks on planetary circulation.We investigate the importance of the ozone-surface climate coupling with two Chemistry Climate Models, contrasting simulations with fully interactive ozone against prescribed zonally averaged climatological ozone under fixed present-day boundary conditions. We focus on springtime Arctic ozone minima and compare subsequent surface patterns in runs with and without interactive ozone, thus rendering a detailed and physically-based quantification of the stratospheric ozone impact on surface climate possible. &#160;All model simulations show a connection between Arctic ozone minima and a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in the month after the depletion in spring. Runs with interactive ozone chemistry show an amplified surface response and a 40% stronger Arctic Oscillation index after ozone depletion. This amplified Arctic Oscillation goes along with enhanced positive surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia. Moreover, composite surface patterns after spring ozone minima in model simulations with interactive ozone show a better agreement with composites in reanalysis data compared to runs with prescribed ozone.Mechanisms whereby stratospheric ozone affects both the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are explored. These include the reduction of short-wave heating over the pole due to ozone loss, thus amplifying stratospheric temperature anomalies and allowing for an intensification of the polar vortex with subsequent impacts on wave propagation and the stratospheric meridional circulation. This suggests that ozone is not only passively responding to stratospheric dynamics, but actively feeds back into the circulation. Following these results, stratospheric ozone anomalies actively contribute to anomalous surface weather in spring, emphasizing the potential importance of interactive ozone chemistry for seasonal predictions.

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