scholarly journals Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 10581-10596 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Schnell ◽  
M. J. Prather ◽  
B. Josse ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
L. W. Horowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Model Measurement

Abstract. We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

scholarly journals Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 11369-11407 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Schnell ◽  
M. J. Prather ◽  
B. Josse ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
L. W. Horowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Model Measurement

Abstract. We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80% of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The observed linear relationship showing increases in ozone by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes is also matched.

scholarly journals Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2355-2377
Author(s):  
Vijay S. Mahadevan ◽  
Iulian Grindeanu ◽  
Robert Jacob ◽  
Jason Sarich
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Spectral Element ◽  
Scientific Workflow ◽  
Model Coupling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Modeling Framework

Abstract. One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) (Hill et al., 2004) and TempestRemap (Ullrich et al., 2013) offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) (Larson et al., 2001) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) (Tautges et al., 2004; Mahadevan et al., 2015) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Observed Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes over North America

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 7266-7281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Loikith ◽  
Anthony J. Broccoli
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Patterns And Processes

Abstract Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. The findings show that warm extremes at most locations are associated with positive 500-hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure anomalies just downstream with negative anomalies farther upstream. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. Circulation patterns aloft are more coherent across the continent than those at the surface where local surface features influence the occurrence of and patterns associated with extreme temperature days. Temperature extremes may be more sensitive to small shifts in circulation at locations where temperature is strongly influenced by mountains or large water bodies, or at the margins of important large-scale circulation patterns making such locations more susceptible to nonlinear responses to future climate change. The identification of these patterns and processes will allow for a thorough evaluation of the ability of climate models to realistically simulate extreme temperatures and their future trends.

scholarly journals Severe Cold Winter in North America Linked to Bering Sea Ice Loss

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (18) ◽  
pp. 8069-8085
Author(s):  
Mizuki Iida ◽  
Shusaku Sugimoto ◽  
Toshio Suga
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Cold Wave ◽  
Air Cooling ◽  
Ocean Reanalysis ◽  
The Bering Sea

AbstractNorth America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades. Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice. Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.

Large Differences in Diffuse Solar Radiation Among Current-Generation Reanalysis and Satellite-Derived Products

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
T. Chakraborty ◽  
X. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Diffuse Fraction ◽  
Diffuse Solar Radiation ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Model Variability

AbstractThough the partitioning of shortwave radiation (K↓) at the surface into its diffuse (K↓,d) and direct beam (K↓,b) components is relevant for, among other things, the terrestrial energy and carbon budgets, there is a dearth of large-scale comparisons of this partitioning across reanalysis and satellite-derived products. Here we evaluate K↓, K↓,d, and K↓,b, as well as the diffuse fraction (kd) of solar radiation in four current-generation reanalysis (NOAA-CIRES-DOE, NCEP/NCAR, MERRA-2, ERA5) datasets and one satellite-derived product (CERES) using ≈1400 site years of observations. Although the systematic positive biases in K↓ is consistent with previous studies, the biases in gridded K↓,d and K↓,b vary in direction and magnitude, both annually and across seasons. The inter-model variability in cloud cover strongly explains the biases in both K↓,d and K↓,b. Over Europe and China, the long-term (10-year plus) trends in K↓,d in the gridded products are noticeably differ from corresponding observations and the grid-averaged 35-year trends show an order of magnitude variability. In the MERRA-2 reanalysis, which includes both clouds and assimilated aerosols, the reduction in both clouds and aerosols reinforce each other to establish brightening trends over Europe, while the effect of increasing aerosols overwhelm the effect of decreasing cloud cover over China. The inter-model variability in kd seen here (0.27 to 0.50 from CERES to MERRA-2) suggests substantial differences in shortwave parameterization schemes and their inputs in climate models and can contribute to inter-model variability in coupled simulations. Based on these results, we call for systematic evaluations of K↓,d and K↓,b in CMIP6 models.

scholarly journals Foreign influences on tropospheric ozone over East Asia through global atmospheric transport

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (19) ◽  
pp. 12495-12514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Han ◽  
Jane Liu ◽  
Huiling Yuan ◽  
Tijian Wang ◽  
Bingliang Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Ozone Concentrations

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone in East Asia is influenced by the transport of ozone from foreign regions around the world. However, the magnitudes and variations in such influences remain unclear. This study was performed to investigate the influences using a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, through the tagged ozone and emission perturbation simulations. The results show that foreign ozone is transported to East Asia (20–60∘ N, 95–150∘ E) mainly through the middle and upper troposphere. In East Asia, the influence of foreign ozone increases rapidly with altitude. In the middle and upper troposphere, the regional mean concentrations of foreign ozone range from 32 to 65 ppbv, being 0.8–4.8 times higher than its native counterpart (11–18 ppbv). Annually, ∼60 % of foreign ozone in the East Asian middle and upper troposphere comes from North America (5–13 ppbv) and Europe (5–7 ppbv), as well as from foreign oceanic regions (9–21 ppbv). Over the East Asian tropospheric columns, foreign ozone appears most in spring when ozone concentrations in the foreign regions are high and the westerlies are strong and least in summer when the South Asian High blocks eastward foreign ozone from reaching East Asia south of 35∘ N. At the East Asian surface, the annual mean of foreign ozone concentrations is ∼22.2 ppbv, which is comparable to its native counterpart of ∼20.4 ppbv. In the meantime, the annual mean of anthropogenic ozone concentrations from foreign regions is ∼4.7 ppbv, half of which comes from North America (1.3 ppbv) and Europe (1.0 ppbv). Seasonally, foreign ozone concentrations at the East Asian surface are highest in winter (27.1 ppbv) and lowest in summer (16.5 ppbv). This strong seasonality is largely modulated by the East Asian monsoon (EAM) via its influence on vertical motion. The large-scale subsidence prevailing during the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) favours the downdraft of foreign ozone to the surface, while widespread convection in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) blocks such transport. Interannually, the variation in foreign ozone at the East Asian surface is found to be closely related to the intensity of the EAM. Specifically, the stronger the EAWM is in a winter, the more ozone from North America and Europe reaches the East Asian surface because of the stronger subsidence behind the East Asian trough. In summer, ozone from South and South-east Asia is reduced in strong EASM years due to weakened south-westerly monsoon winds. This study suggests substantial foreign influences on ozone at the East Asian surface and in its tropospheric columns. It also underscores the importance of the EAM in the seasonal and interannual variations in foreign influences on surface ozone in East Asia.

scholarly journals Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay S. Mahadevan ◽  
Iulian Grindeanu ◽  
Robert Jacob ◽  
Jason Sarich
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Spectral Element ◽  
Scientific Workflow ◽  
Model Coupling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Modeling Framework

Abstract. One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the pre-processing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) Hill et al. (2004) and TempestRemap Ullrich et al. (2013) offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) Larson et al. (2001) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multi-step processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow, and impedes research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) Tautges et al. (2004); Mahadevan et al. (2015) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids, and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative and monotonicity preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process.We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral-element atmosphere and finite-volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

scholarly journals Quantification of Uncertainty in High-Resolution Temperature Scenarios for North America

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3373-3389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilong Li ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Francis Zwiers ◽  
Qiuzi H. Wen
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Twenty First Century

A framework for the construction of probabilistic projections of high-resolution monthly temperature over North America using available outputs of opportunity from ensembles of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and multiple regional climate models (RCMs) is proposed. In this approach, a statistical relationship is first established between RCM output and that from the respective driving GCM and then this relationship is applied to downscale outputs from a larger number of GCM simulations. Those statistically downscaled projections were used to estimate empirical quantiles at high resolution. Uncertainty in the projected temperature was partitioned into four sources including differences in GCMs, internal variability simulated by GCMs, differences in RCMs, and statistical downscaling including internal variability at finer spatial scale. Large spatial variability in projected future temperature changes is found, with increasingly larger changes toward the north in winter temperature and larger changes in the central United States in summer temperature. Under a given emission scenario, downscaling from large scale to small scale is the most important source of uncertainty, though structural errors in GCMs become equally important by the end of the twenty-first century. Different emission scenarios yield different projections of temperature change. This difference increases with time. The difference between the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 in the median values of projected changes in 30-yr mean temperature is small for the coming 30 yr, but can become almost as large as the total variance due to internal variability and modeling errors in both GCM and RCM later in the twenty-first century.

A different perspective on how parameterized orographic gravity waves influence atmospheric transport and dynamics in current generation global climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Rieder ◽  
Petr Šácha ◽  
Roland Eichinger ◽  
Aleš Kuchař ◽  
Nadja Samtleben ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Internal Gravity Waves ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

<p>In the atmosphere, internal gravity waves (GWs) are a naturally occurring and ubiquitous, though intermittent phenomenon. In addition, GWs (especially orographic; OGWs) are asymmetrically distributed around the globe. In current generation global climate models (GCMs), GWs are usually smaller than the model grid resolution and the majority of their spectrum therefore must be parameterized. To some extent, the intermittency and asymmetry of a spatial distribution of the resulting OGW drag (OGWD) is present also in GCMs. As the GW parameterization schemes in GCMs are usually tuned to get the zonal mean climatology of particular features right, an important question emerges: what kind of influence do GW parameterizations have on the individual models atmosphere locally? Here we focus on answering this question regarding the impact of spatiotemporally intermittent OGW forcing in the extra-tropical lower stratosphere region (LS). The LS region is characterized by a strong interplay of chemical, physical and dynamical processes. To date, the representation of this dynamically active region in models frequently mismatches observations. Although we can find a climatological maximum of oGWD in the LS, the role of OGW forcing for the transport and composition in this region is poorly understood. We combine observational evidence, idealized modeling and statistical analysis of GCM outputs to study both the short-term and long-term model response to the OGW forcing. The results presented will question the relationship between the advective part of the Brewer- Dobson circulation and the zonally asymmetric GW forcing, and a so-far neglected link between oGWD and large-scale quasi-isentropic stirring will be discussed.</p>

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