scholarly journals Evaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last 2 decades – an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 13355-13378
Author(s):  
Augustin Mortier ◽  
Jonas Gliß ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Wenche Aas ◽  
Elisabeth Andrews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
The World

Abstract. This study presents a multiparameter analysis of aerosol trends over the last 2 decades at regional and global scales. Regional time series have been computed for a set of nine optical, chemical-composition and mass aerosol properties by using the observations from several ground-based networks. From these regional time series the aerosol trends have been derived for the different regions of the world. Most of the properties related to aerosol loading exhibit negative trends, both at the surface and in the total atmospheric column. Significant decreases in aerosol optical depth (AOD) are found in Europe, North America, South America, North Africa and Asia, ranging from −1.2 % yr−1 to −3.1 % yr−1. An error and representativity analysis of the spatially and temporally limited observational data has been performed using model data subsets in order to investigate how much the observed trends represent the actual trends happening in the regions over the full study period from 2000 to 2014. This analysis reveals that significant uncertainty is associated with some of the regional trends due to time and space sampling deficiencies. The set of observed regional trends has then been used for the evaluation of 10 models (6 AeroCom phase III models and 4 CMIP6 models) and the CAMS reanalysis dataset and of their skills in reproducing the aerosol trends. Model performance is found to vary depending on the parameters and the regions of the world. The models tend to capture trends in AOD, the column Ångström exponent, sulfate and particulate matter well (except in North Africa), but they show larger discrepancies for coarse-mode AOD. The rather good agreement of the trends, across different aerosol parameters between models and observations, when co-locating them in time and space, implies that global model trends, including those in poorly monitored regions, are likely correct. The models can help to provide a global picture of the aerosol trends by filling the gaps in regions not covered by observations. The calculation of aerosol trends at a global scale reveals a different picture from that depicted by solely relying on ground-based observations. Using a model with complete diagnostics (NorESM2), we find a global increase in AOD of about 0.2 % yr−1 between 2000 and 2014, primarily caused by an increase in the loads of organic aerosols, sulfate and black carbon.

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last two decades – an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Mortier ◽  
Jonas Gliss ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
The World

<p>This study presents a multi-parameter analysis of aerosol trends over the last two decades at regional and global scales. Regional time series have been computed for a set of nine optical, chemical composition and mass aerosol properties by using the observations of several ground-based networks. From these regional time series the aerosol trends have been derived for different regions of the world. Most of the properties related to aerosol loading exhibit negative trends, both at the surface and in the total atmospheric column. Significant decreases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are found in Europe, North America, South America and North Africa, ranging from −1.3 %/yr to −3.1 %/yr. An error and representativity analysis of the incomplete observational data has been performed using model data subsets in order to investigate how likely the observed trends represent the actual trends happening in the regions over the full study period from 2000 to 2014. This analysis reveals that significant uncertainty is associated with some of the regional trends due to time and space sampling deficiencies. The set of observed regional trends has then been used for the evaluation of the climate models and their skills in reproducing the aerosol trends. Model performance is found to vary depending on the parameters and the regions of the world. The models tend to capture trends in AOD, column Angstrom exponent, sulfate and particulate matter well (except in North Africa), but show larger discrepancies for coarse mode AOD. The rather good agreement of the trends, across different aerosol parameters between models and observations, when co-locating them in time and space, implies that global model trends, including those in poorly monitored regions, are likely correct. The models can help to provide a global picture of the aerosol trends by filling the gaps in regions not covered by observations. The calculation of aerosol trends at a global scale reveals a different picture from the one depicted by solely relying on ground based observations. Using a model with complete diagnostics (NorESM2) we find a global increase of AOD of about 0.2 %/yr between 2000 and 2014, primarily caused by an increase of the loads of organic aerosol, sulfate and black carbon.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last two decades – an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Mortier ◽  
Jonas Gliss ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Wenche Aas ◽  
Elisabeth Andrews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
The World

Abstract. This study presents a multi-parameter analysis of aerosol trends over the last two decades at regional and global scales. Regional time series have been computed for a set of nine optical, chemical composition and mass aerosol properties by using the observations of several ground-based networks. From these regional time series the aerosol trends have been derived for different regions of the world. Most of the properties related to aerosol loading exhibit negative trends, both at the surface and in the total atmospheric column. Significant decreases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are found in Europe, North America, South America and North Africa, ranging from −1.3 %/yr to −3.1 %/yr. An error and representativity analysis of the incomplete observational data has been performed using model data subsets in order to investigate how likely the observed trends represent the actual trends happening in the regions over the full study period from 2000 to 2014. This analysis reveals that significant uncertainty is associated with some of the regional trends due to time and space sampling deficiencies. The set of observed regional trends has then been used for the evaluation of the climate models and their skills in reproducing the aerosol trends. Model performance is found to vary depending on the parameters and the regions of the world. The models tend to capture trends in AOD, column Angstrom exponent, sulfate and particulate matter well (except in North Africa), but show larger discrepancies for coarse mode AOD. The rather good agreement of the trends, across different aerosol parameters between models and observations, when co-locating them in time and space, implies that global model trends, including those in poorly monitored regions, are likely correct. The models can help to provide a global picture of the aerosol trends by filling the gaps in regions not covered by observations. The calculation of aerosol trends at a global scale reveals a different picture from the one depicted by solely relying on ground based observations. Using a model with complete diagnostics (NorESM2) we find a global increase of AOD of about 0.2 %/yr between 2000 and 2014, primarily caused by an increase of the loads of organic aerosol, sulfate and black carbon.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the WRF-Chem (V3.6.1) model to different dust emission parametrisation: assessment in the broader Mediterranean region

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2925-2945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Vassiliki Kotroni ◽  
Konstantinos Lagouvardos ◽  
Martina Klose ◽  
Cyrille Flamant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Dust Transport ◽  
Dust Emissions ◽  
Extinction Coefficients ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Model Aerosol

Abstract. In this study we aim to assess the WRF-Chem model capacity to reproduce dust transport over the eastern Mediterranean. For this reason, we compare the model aerosol optical depth (AOD) outputs to observations, focusing on three key regions: North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and the eastern Mediterranean. Three sets of four simulations have been performed for the 6-month period of spring and summer 2011. Each simulation set uses a different dust emission parametrisation and for each parametrisation, the dust emissions are multiplied with various coefficients in order to tune the model performance. Our assessment approach is performed across different spatial and temporal scales using AOD observations from satellites and ground-based stations, as well as from airborne measurements of aerosol extinction coefficients over the Sahara. Assessment over the entire domain and simulation period shows that the model presents temporal and spatial variability similar to observed AODs, regardless of the applied dust emission parametrisation. On the other hand, when focusing on specific regions, the model skill varies significantly. Tuning the model performance by applying a coefficient to dust emissions may reduce the model AOD bias over a region, but may increase it in other regions. In particular, the model was shown to realistically reproduce the major dust transport events over the eastern Mediterranean, but failed to capture the regional background AOD. Further comparison of the model simulations to airborne measurements of vertical profiles of extinction coefficients over North Africa suggests that the model realistically reproduces the total atmospheric column AOD. Finally, we discuss the model results in two sensitivity tests, where we included finer dust particles (less than 1 µm) and changed accordingly the dust bins' mass fraction.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the WRF-Chem (V3.6.1) model to different dust emission parametrisation: Assessment in the broader Mediterranean region

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Vassiliki Kotroni ◽  
Konstantinos Lagouvardos ◽  
Martina Klose ◽  
Cyrille Flamant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Dust Transport ◽  
Dust Emissions ◽  
Extinction Coefficients ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Model Aerosol

Abstract. In this study we aim to assess the WRF-Chem model capacity to reproduce dust transport over the eastern Mediterranean. For this reason, we compare the model aerosol optical depth (AOD) outputs to observations, focusing on three key regions: North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and the eastern Mediterranean. Three sets of four simulations have been performed for the six-month period of spring and summer 2011. Each simulation set uses a different dust emission parametrisation and for each parametrisation, the dust emissions are multiplied with various coefficients in order to tune the model performance. Our assessment approach is performed across different spatial and temporal scales using AOD observations from satellites and ground-based stations, as well as from airborne measurements of aerosol extinction coefficients over the Sahara. Assessment over the entire domain and simulation period shows that the model presents temporal and spatial variability similar to observed AODs, regardless of the applied dust emission parametrisation. On the other hand, when focusing on specific regions, the model skill varies significantly. Tuning the model performance by applying a coefficient to dust emissions may reduce the model AOD bias over a region, but may increase it in other regions. In particular, the model was shown to realistically reproduce the major dust transport events over the eastern Mediterranean, but failed to capture the regional background AOD. Further comparison of the model simulations to airborne measurements of vertical profiles of extinction coefficients over North Africa suggests that the model realistically reproduces the total atmospheric column AOD. Finally, we discuss the model results in two sensitivity tests, where we included finer dust mode (less than 1 μm) and changed accordingly the dust bins mass fraction.

WTO SUCCESSOR TO GATT

1997 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-187
Author(s):  
Arif Sultan
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
European Economic Community ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Land Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
The Developed Countries

Within a short span of time a number of economic blocs have emergedon the world horizon. In this race, all countriedeveloped, developingand underdeveloped-are included. Members of the North America FreeTrade Agreement (NAITA) and the European Economic Community(EEC) are primarily of the developed countries, while the EconomicCooperation Organization (ECO) and the Association of South EastAsian Nations (ASEAN) are of the developing and underdevelopedAsian countries.The developed countries are scrambling to create hegemonies throughthe General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT). In these circumstances,economic cooperation among Muslim countries should be onthe top of their agenda.Muslim countries today constitute about one-third of the membershipof the United Nations. There are around 56 independentMuslim states with a population of around 800 million coveringabout 20 percent of the land area of the world. Stretchingbetween Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, the Muslim Worldstraddles from North Africa to Indonesia, in two major Islamicblocs, they are concentrated in the heart of Africa to Indonesia,in two major blocs, they are concentrated in the heart of Africaand Asia and a smaller group in South and Southeast Asia.'GATT is a multilateral agreement on tariffs and trade establishing thecode of rules, regulations, and modalities regulating and operating internationaltrade. It also serves as a forum for discussions and negotiations ...

Delving into Horror

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 135-150
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Perception Of Time ◽  
Definition Of

The springboard for this essay is the author’s encounter with the feeling of horror and her attempts to understand what place horror has in philosophy. The inquiry relies upon Leonid Lipavsky’s “Investigation of Horror” and on various textual plunges into the fanged and clawed (and possibly noumenal) abyss of Nick Land’s work. Various experiences of horror are examined in order to build something of a typology, while also distilling the elements characteristic of the experience of horror in general. The essay’s overall hypothesis is that horror arises from a disruption of the usual ways of determining the boundaries between external things and the self, and this leads to a distinction between three subtypes of horror. In the first subtype, horror begins with the indeterminacy at the boundaries of things, a confrontation with something that defeats attempts to define it and thereby calls into question the definition of the self. In the second subtype, horror springs from the inability to determine one’s own boundaries, a process opposed by the crushing determinacy of the world. In the third subtype, horror unfolds by means of a substitution of one determinacy by another which is unexpected and ungrounded. In all three subtypes of horror, the disturbance of determinacy deprives the subject, the thinking entity, of its customary foundation for thought, and even of an explanation of how that foundation was lost; at times this can lead to impairment of the perception of time and space. Understood this way, horror comes within a hair’s breadth of madness - and may well cross over into it.

scholarly journals Technical note: Inherent benchmark or not? Comparing Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency scores

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 4323-4331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter J. M. Knoben ◽  
Jim E. Freer ◽  
Ross A. Woods
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Model Adequacy ◽  
Robust Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Adequacy Assessment

Abstract. A traditional metric used in hydrology to summarize model performance is the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Increasingly an alternative metric, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), is used instead. When NSE is used, NSE = 0 corresponds to using the mean flow as a benchmark predictor. The same reasoning is applied in various studies that use KGE as a metric: negative KGE values are viewed as bad model performance, and only positive values are seen as good model performance. Here we show that using the mean flow as a predictor does not result in KGE = 0, but instead KGE =1-√2≈-0.41. Thus, KGE values greater than −0.41 indicate that a model improves upon the mean flow benchmark – even if the model's KGE value is negative. NSE and KGE values cannot be directly compared, because their relationship is non-unique and depends in part on the coefficient of variation of the observed time series. Therefore, modellers who use the KGE metric should not let their understanding of NSE values guide them in interpreting KGE values and instead develop new understanding based on the constitutive parts of the KGE metric and the explicit use of benchmark values to compare KGE scores against. More generally, a strong case can be made for moving away from ad hoc use of aggregated efficiency metrics and towards a framework based on purpose-dependent evaluation metrics and benchmarks that allows for more robust model adequacy assessment.

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