scholarly journals Global Tropopause Altitudes in Radiosondes and Reanalyses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Xian ◽  
Cameron R. Homeyer
Keyword(s):  
Coordinate System ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Relative Coordinate ◽  
Relative Coordinates ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract. Accurate depictions of the tropopause and its changes are important for studies such as stratosphere-troposphere exchange and climate change.Here, the fidelity of primary lapse-rate tropopause altitudes and double tropopause frequencies in four modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) is examined using global radiosonde observations. In addition, long-term trends (1981–2015) in these tropopause properties are diagnosed in both the reanalyses and radiosondes. It is found that ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and CFSR reproduce observed tropopause altitudes with little bias and error comparable to the model vertical resolution, while MERRA-2 tropopause altitudes are biased 500–600 m high. All reanalyses underestimate the double tropopause frequency (up to 30 % lower than observed), with the largest biases found in JRA-55 and the smallest in CFSR. The underestimates in double tropopause frequency are primarily attributed to the coarse vertical resolution of the reanalyses. Significant increasing trends in both tropopause altitude (40–120 m per decade) and double tropopause frequency (≥ 3 % per decade) were found in both the radiosonde observations and reanalyses over the 35-year analysis period. ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 broadly reproduce the patterns and signs of observed significant trends, while CFSR is inconsistent with the remaining datasets. These trends were diagnosed in both the native Eulerian coordinate system of the reanalyses and in a relative latitude coordinate system where the tropopause break (the discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics) was used as the reference latitude in each hemisphere. The tropopause break-relative coordinate facilitates the evaluation of tropopause behavior within the tropical and extratropical reservoirs and revealed significant differences in trend estimates compared to the traditional Eulerian analysis. Notably, increasing tropopause altitude trends were found to be of greater magnitude in tropopause break-relative coordinates and increasing double tropopause frequency trends were found to occur primarily poleward of the tropopause break in each hemisphere.

scholarly journals Global tropopause altitudes in radiosondes and reanalyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 5661-5678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Xian ◽  
Cameron R. Homeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coordinate System ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract. Accurate depictions of the tropopause and its changes are important for studies on stratosphere–troposphere exchange and climate change. Here, the fidelity of primary lapse-rate tropopause altitudes and double tropopause frequencies in four modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) is examined using global radiosonde observations. In addition, long-term trends (1981–2015) in these tropopause properties are diagnosed in both the reanalyses and radiosondes. It is found that reanalyses reproduce observed tropopause altitudes with little bias (typically less than ±150 m) and error comparable to the model vertical resolution. All reanalyses underestimate the double tropopause frequency (up to 30 % lower than observed), with the largest biases found in JRA-55 and the smallest in CFSR. The underestimates in double tropopause frequency are primarily attributable to the coarse vertical resolution of the reanalyses. Significant increasing trends in both tropopause altitude (40–120 m per decade) and double tropopause frequency (≥3 % per decade) were found in both the radiosonde observations and the reanalyses over the 35-year analysis period (1981–2015). ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 broadly reproduce the patterns and signs of observed significant trends, while CFSR is inconsistent with the remaining datasets. Trends were diagnosed in both the native Eulerian coordinate system of the reanalyses (fixed longitude and latitude) and in a coordinate system where latitude is defined relative to the mean latitude of the tropopause break (the discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics) in each hemisphere. The coordinate relative to the tropopause break facilitates the evaluation of tropopause behavior within the tropical and extratropical reservoirs and revealed significant differences in trend estimates compared to the traditional Eulerian analysis. Notably, increasing tropopause altitude trends were found to be of greater magnitude in coordinates relative to the tropopause break, and increasing double tropopause frequency trends were found to occur primarily poleward of the tropopause break in each hemisphere.

scholarly journals Trends in the Frequency of Intense Precipitation Events in Southern and Southeastern Brazil during 1960–2004

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1913-1921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus da Silva Teixeira ◽  
Prakki Satyamurty
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract A new approach to define heavy and extreme rainfall events based on cluster analysis and area-average rainfall series is presented. The annual frequency of the heavy and extreme rainfall events is obtained for the southeastern and southern Brazil regions. In the 1960–2004 period, 510 (98) and 466 (77) heavy (extreme) rainfall events are identified in the two regions. Monthly distributions of the events closely follow the monthly climatological rainfall in the two regions. In both regions, annual heavy and extreme rainfall event frequencies present increasing trends in the 45-yr period. However, only in southern Brazil is the trend statistically significant. Although longer time series are necessary to ensure the existence of long-term trends, the positive trends are somewhat alarming since they indicate that climate changes, in terms of rainfall regimes, are possibly under way in Brazil.

scholarly journals Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solomon Mulugeta ◽  
Clifford Fedler ◽  
Mekonen Ayana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

With climate change prevailing around the world, understanding the changes in long-term annual and seasonal rainfall at local scales is very important in planning for required adaptation measures. This is especially true for areas such as the Awash River basin where there is very high dependence on rain- fed agriculture characterized by frequent droughts and subsequent famines. The aim of the study is to analyze long-term trends of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Monthly rainfall data extracted from Climatic Research Unit (CRU 4.01) dataset for 54 grid points representing the entire basin were aggregated to find the respective areal annual and seasonal rainfall time series for the entire basin and its seven sub-basins. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen Slope estimator were applied to the time series for detecting the trends and for estimating the rate of change, respectively. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction, data analyses, and plotting. Geographic information system (GIS) package was also used for grid making, site selection, and mapping. The results showed that no significant trend (at α = 0.05) was identified in annual rainfall in all sub-basins and over the entire basin in the period (1902 to 2016). However, the results for seasonal rainfall are mixed across the study areas. The summer rainfall (June through September) showed significant decreasing trend (at α ≤ 0.1) over five of the seven sub-basins at a rate varying from 4 to 7.4 mm per decade but it showed no trend over the two sub-basins. The autumn rainfall (October through January) showed no significant trends over four of the seven sub-basins but showed increasing trends over three sub-basins at a rate varying from 2 to 5 mm per decade. The winter rainfall (February through May) showed no significant trends over four sub-basins but showed significant increasing trends (at α ≤ 0.1) over three sub-basins at a rate varying from 0.6 to 2.7 mm per decade. At the basin level, the summer rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (at α = 0.05) while the autumn and winter rainfall showed no significant trends. In addition, shift in some amount of summer rainfall to winter and autumn season was noticed. It is evident that climate change has shown pronounced effects on the trends and patterns of seasonal rainfall. Thus, the study contribute to better understanding of climate change in the basin and the information from the study can be used in planning for adaptation measures against a changing climate.

scholarly journals A twenty-year study on natural and manmade global interannual fluctuations of cirrus cloud cover

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
D. S. Balis ◽  
G. Tselioudis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Cirrus Cloud ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The seasonal variability and the interannual variance explained by ENSO and NAO to cirrus cloud cover (CCC) are examined during the twenty-year period 1984–2004. CCC was found to be significantly correlated with vertical velocities and relative humidity from ECMWF/ERA40 in the tropics (correlations up to –0.7 and +0.7 at some locations, respectively) suggesting that variations in large-scale vertical winds and relative humidity fields can be the origin of up to half of the local variability in CCC over these regions. These correlations reflect mostly the seasonal cycle. Although the annual cycle is dominant in all latitudes and longitudes, peaking over the tropics and subtropics, its amplitude can be exceeded during strong El Nino/La Nina events. Over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the interannual variance of CCC which can be explained by ENSO is about 6.8% and it is ~2.3 times larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle. Natural long-term trends in the tropics are generally small (about –0.3% cloud cover per decade) and possible manmade trends in those regions are also small. The contributions of NAO and QBO to the variance of CCC in the tropics are also small. In the northern mid–latitudes, on the other hand, the effect of NAO is more significant and can be very important regionally. Over northern Europe and the eastern part of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) there is a small positive correlation between CCC and NAO index during the wintertime of about 0.3. In this region, the interannual variance of CCC explained by NAO is 2.6% and the amplitude of the annual cycle is 3.1%. Long-term trends over this region are about +1.6% cloud cover per decade and compare well with the observed manmade trends over congested air traffic regions in Europe and the North Atlantic as have been evidenced from earlier findings.

scholarly journals Strength and limits of transient mid to late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascale Braconnot ◽  
Dan Zhu ◽  
Olivier Marti ◽  
Jérôme Servonnat
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Complete Evaluation ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Scientific Questions

Abstract. We discuss here the first 6000 years long Holocene simulations with fully interactive vegetation and carbon cycle with the IPSL Earth system model. It reproduces the long term trends in tree line in northern hemisphere and the southward shift of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation in the tropics in response to orbital forcing. The simulation is discussed at the light of a set of mid Holocene and pre industrial simulations performed to set up the model version and to initialize the dynamical vegetation. These sensitivity experiments remind us that model quality or realism is not only a function of model parameterizations and tuning, but also of experimental set up. They also question the possibility for bi-stable vegetation states under modern conditions. Despite these limitations the results show different timing of vegetation changes through space and time, mainly due to the pace of the insolation forcing and to internal variability. Forest in Eurasia exhibits changes in forest composition with time as well as large centennial variability. The rapid increase of atmospheric CO2 in the last centuries of the simulation contributes to enhance tree growth and counteracts the long term trends induced by Holocene insolation in the northern hemisphere. A complete evaluation of the results would require being able to properly account for systematic model biases and, more important, a careful choice of the reference period depending on the scientific questions.

scholarly journals Global large-scale stratosphere-troposphere exchange in modern reanalyses

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander C. Boothe ◽  
Cameron R. Homeyer
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Transport Mechanisms ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) has important and significant impacts on the chemical and radiative properties of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. This study presents a 15-year climatology of global large-scale STE from four modern reanalyses: ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and MERRA-1. STE is separated into four categories for analysis to identify the significance of known transport mechanisms: 1) vertical stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT), 2) vertical troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST), 3) lateral STT (that occurring between the tropics and the extratropics and across the tropopause "break"), and 4) lateral TST. In addition, this study employs a method to identify STE as that which crosses the lapse-rate tropopause (LRT), while most previous studies have used a potential vorticity (PV) isosurface as the troposphere-stratosphere boundary. PV-based and LRT based STE climatologies are compared using the same reanalysis output (ERA-Interim). The comparison reveals quantitative and qualitative differences, particularly in the geographic representation of TST in the polar regions. Based upon spatiotemporal integrations, we find STE to be STT-dominant in ERA-Interim and JRA-55 and TST-dominant in the MERRA reanalyses. Time series during the 15-year analysis period show long-term changes that are argued to correspond with changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

scholarly journals Increasing Weekend Effect in Ground-Level O3 in Metropolitan Areas of Mexico during 1988–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván Hernández-Paniagua ◽  
Rodrigo Lopez-Farias ◽  
José Piña-Mondragón ◽  
Juan Pichardo-Corpus ◽  
Olivia Delgadillo-Ruiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Monitoring Site ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Urban Core ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in the O3 weekend effect (WE) occurrences and spread within the Mexico City (MCMA), Guadalajara (GMA), and Monterrey (MMA) metropolitan areas, which are the three largest metropolitan areas (MAs) of Mexico and concentrate around 33% of the total population in the country. Daytime averages and peak differences in O3 concentrations from weekdays to weekends were used as a proxy of WE occurrence. All MAs exhibited the occurrence of WE in all years at least in one monitoring site. Substantial differences in O3 daytime averages and peaks from weekdays to weekends have decreased over time in all MAs, and since 1998 and 2013 for the MCMA and GMA, respectively, higher O3 levels during weekends are typical during most of the year. The largest variations in the O3 WE were observed at downwind and urban core sites of the MCMA and GMA. Significant increasing trends (p < 0.05) in the O3 WE magnitude were observed for Sundays at all sites within the MCMA, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.33 and 1.29 ppb O3 yr−1. Within the GMA, for Sundays, fewer sites exhibited increasing trends in the WE occurrence and at lower growth rates (0.32 and 0.48 ppb yr−1, p < 0.1) than within the MCMA, while within the MMA no apparent trends were observed in marked contrast with the MCMA and GMA. Our findings suggest that policies implemented have been successful in controlling weekday ground-level O3 within the MCMA and GMA, but further actions must be introduced to control the increases in the O3 WE magnitude and spread.

scholarly journals Global large-scale stratosphere–troposphere exchange in modern reanalyses

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 5537-5559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander C. Boothe ◽  
Cameron R. Homeyer
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Transport Mechanisms ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) has important impacts on the chemical and radiative properties of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. This study presents a 15-year climatology of global large-scale STE from four modern reanalyses: ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and MERRA. STE is separated into three regions (tropics, subtropics, and extratropics) and two transport directions (stratosphere-to-troposphere transport or STT and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport or TST) in an attempt to identify the significance of known transport mechanisms. The extratropics and tropics are separated by the tropopause break. Any STE occurring between the tropics and the extratropics through the tropopause break is considered subtropical exchange (i.e., in the vicinity of the subtropical jet). In addition, this study employs a method to identify STE as that which crosses the lapse-rate tropopause (LRT), while most previous studies have used a potential vorticity (PV) isosurface as the troposphere–stratosphere boundary. PV-based and LRT-based STE climatologies are compared using the ERA-Interim reanalysis output. The comparison reveals quantitative and qualitative differences, particularly for TST in the polar regions. Based upon spatiotemporal integrations, we find STE to be STT dominant in ERA-Interim and JRA-55 and TST dominant in MERRA and MERRA-2. The sources of the differences are mainly attributed to inconsistencies in the representation of STE in the subtropics and extratropics. Time series during the 15-year analysis period show long-term changes that are argued to correspond with changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation.

scholarly journals A study on natural and manmade global interannual fluctuations of cirrus cloud cover for the period 1984–2004

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 2631-2642 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
D. S. Balis ◽  
G. Tselioudis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Cirrus Cloud ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The seasonal variability and the interannual variance explained by ENSO and NAO to cirrus cloud cover (CCC) are examined during the twenty-year period 1984–2004. CCC was found to be significantly correlated with vertical velocities and relative humidity from ECMWF/ERA40 in the tropics (correlations up to −0.7 and +0.7 at some locations, respectively) suggesting that variations in large-scale vertical winds and relative humidity fields can be the origin of up to half of the local variability in CCC over these regions. These correlations reflect mostly the seasonal cycle. Although the annual cycle is dominant in all latitudes and longitudes, peaking over the tropics and subtropics, its amplitude can be exceeded during strong El Nino/La Nina events. Over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the interannual variance of CCC which can be explained by ENSO is about 6.8% and it is ~2.3 times larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle. Natural long-term trends in the tropics are generally small (about −0.3% cloud cover per decade) and possible manmade trends in those regions are also small. The contributions of NAO and QBO to the variance of CCC in the tropics are also small. In the northern mid-latitudes, on the other hand, the effect of NAO is more significant and can be very important regionally. Over northern Europe and the eastern part of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) there is a small positive correlation between CCC and NAO index during the wintertime of about 0.3. In this region, the interannual variance of CCC explained by NAO is 2.6% and the amplitude of the annual cycle is 3.1%. Long-term trends over this region are about +1.6% cloud cover per decade and compare well with the observed manmade trends over congested air traffic regions in Europe and the North Atlantic as have been evidenced from earlier findings.

scholarly journals Long-term trends of climate change and its impact on crop growing season on Montreal Island

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88
Author(s):  
Erika Bouchard ◽  
Zhiming Qi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

Long-term trends in air temperature and precipitation under climate change were analyzed for two meteorological stations on the Island of Montreal: McGill (1872–1986) and Pierre-Elliott-Trudeau (P-E-T, formerly Dorval) Airport (1942–2014). A linear trendline analysis, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test were conducted to assess specific climate trends. On a 100-year basis, temperature increased 1.88°C (34%) and 1.18°C (19%) at the McGill and P-E-T Airport sites, respectively, while annual rainfall increased 23.9 mm y−1 (2.3%) and 138.8 mm y−1 (15%) over the same period. The frequency of 50% (every other year) and 95% (every year) annual maximum daily rainfall events showed decreasing trends for the McGill station, but increasing trends for the P-E-T Airport station. Growing degree-days and growing season length are prone to being influenced by climate change and are critical to managing agricultural activities in the Montreal region; both showed increasing trends. At the same time, the onset of the growing season occurred earlier as time progressed.

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