scholarly journals How sensitive is the recovery of stratospheric ozone to changes in concentrations of very short lived bromocarbons?

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 9729-9745 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Yang ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
P. Braesicke ◽  
J. Keeble ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Background Concentrations ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Future Situation ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Naturally produced very short-lived substances (VSLS), like bromocarbons, account for almost a quarter of the current stratospheric inorganic bromine, Bry. Following VSLS oxidation, bromine radicals (Br and BrO) can catalytically destroy ozone. The extent to which possible increases in surface emissions or transport of these VSLS bromocarbons to the stratosphere could counteract the effect of halogen reductions under the Montreal Protocol is an important policy question. Here by using a chemistry–climate model, UM-UKCA, we investigate the impact of a hypothetical increase in VSLS on ozone and how that impact depends on the background concentrations of chlorine and bromine. Our model experiments indicate that for a ~5 ppt increase in Bry from VSLS, the local ozone loss in the lowermost stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) may reach up to 10% in the annual mean; the ozone loss in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is smaller (4–6%). There is more ozone loss following an increase in VSLS burden under a high stratospheric chlorine background than under a low chlorine background indicating the importance of the inter-halogen reactions. For example, the rate of decline of the stratospheric ozone concentration as a function of Bry is higher by about 30–40% when stratospheric Cly is ~3 ppb (present day) compared with Cly of ~0.8 ppb (apre-industrial or projected future situation). Although bromine plays an important role in destroying ozone, inorganic chlorine is the dominant halogen compound. Even if bromine levels from natural VSLS were to increase significantly later this century, changes in the concentration of ozone will be dominated by the recovery of anthropogenic chlorine. Our calculation suggests that for a 5 ppt increase in Bry from VSLS, the Antarctic ozone hole recover date could be delayed by approximately 7 years.

scholarly journals How sensitive is the recovery of stratospheric ozone to changes in concentrations of very short-lived bromocarbons?

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 10431-10438 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Yang ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
P. Braesicke ◽  
J. Keeble ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Background Concentrations ◽  
Future Situation ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ozone Column ◽  
Policy Question

Abstract. Naturally produced very short-lived substances (VSLS) account for almost a quarter of the current stratospheric inorganic bromine, Bry. Following VSLS oxidation, bromine radicals (Br and BrO) can catalytically destroy ozone. The extent to which possible increases in surface emissions or transport of these VSLS bromocarbons to the stratosphere could counteract the effect of halogen reductions under the Montreal Protocol is an important policy question. Here, by using a chemistry–climate model, UM-UKCA, we investigate the impact of a hypothetical doubling (an increase of 5 ppt Bry) of VSLS bromocarbons on ozone and how the resulting ozone changes depend on the background concentrations of chlorine and bromine. Our model experiments indicate that for the 5 ppt increase in Bry from VSLS, the ozone decrease in the lowermost stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) may reach up to 10% in the annual mean; the ozone decrease in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is smaller (4–6%). The largest impact on the ozone column is found in the Antarctic spring. There is a significantly larger ozone decrease following the doubling of the VSLS burden under a high stratospheric chlorine background than under a low chlorine background, indicating the importance of the inter-halogen reactions. For example, the decline in the high-latitude, lower-stratospheric ozone concentration as a function of Bry is higher by about 30–40% when stratospheric Cly is ~ 3 ppb (present day), compared with Cly of ~ 0.8 ppb (a pre-industrial or projected future situation). Bromine will play an important role in the future ozone layer. However, even if bromine levels from natural VSLS were to increase significantly later this century, changes in the concentration of ozone will likely be dominated by the decrease in anthropogenic chlorine. Our calculation suggests that for a 5 ppt increase in Bry from VSLS, the Antarctic ozone hole recovery date could be delayed by approximately 6–8 years, depending on Cly levels.

scholarly journals Impact of biogenic very short-lived bromine on the Antarctic ozone hole during the 21<sup>st</sup> century

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael P. Fernandez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Jean-Francois Lamarque ◽  
Simone Tilmes ◽  
Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Hole Area ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Photochemical Decomposition ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Antarctic Ozone Hole

Abstract. Active bromine released from the photochemical decomposition of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) enhances stratospheric ozone depletion. Based on a dual set of 1960–2100 coupled chemistry-climate simulations (i.e. with and without VSLBr), we show that the maximum Antarctic ozone hole depletion increases by up to 14 % when natural VSLBr are considered, in better agreement with ozone observations. The impact of the additional 5 pptv VSLBr on Antarctic ozone is most evident in the periphery of the ozone hole, producing an expansion of the ozone hole area of ~5 million km2, which is equivalent in magnitude to the recently estimated Antarctic ozone healing due to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. We find that the inclusion of VSLBr in CAM-Chem does not introduce a significant delay of the modelled ozone return date to 1980 October levels, but instead affect the depth and duration of the simulated ozone hole. Our analysis further shows that total bromine-catalysed ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere surpasses that of chlorine by year 2070, and indicates that natural VSLBr chemistry would dominate Antarctic ozone seasonality before the end of the 21st century. This work suggests a large influence of biogenic bromine on the future Antarctic ozone layer.

Ozone loss in Antarctica: the implications for global change

1992 ◽  
Vol 338 (1285) ◽  
pp. 219-226 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Antarctic Ozone Hole

Although stratospheric ozone loss had been predicted for m any years, the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole was a surprise which necessitated a major rethink in theories of stratospheric chemistry. The new ideas advanced are discussed here. Global ozone loss has now also been reported after careful analysis of satellite and groundbased data sets. The possible causes of this loss are considered. Further advances require a careful coordination of field measurements and large-scale numerical modelling.

Observational evidence of solar activity interaction with chlorine chemistry curbing Antarctic ozone loss

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Seppälä ◽  
Emily Gordon ◽  
Bernd Funke ◽  
Johanna Tamminen ◽  
Kaley Walker
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Observational Evidence ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Reservoir Species ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
Catalytic Ozone Destruction ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;We present the impact of the so-called energetic particle precipitation (EPP), part of natural solar forcing on the atmosphere, on polar stratospheric NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;, ozone, and chlorine chemistry in the Antarctic springtime, using multi-satellite observations covering the overall period of 2005&amp;#8211;2017. We find consistent ozone increases when high solar activity occurs during years with easterly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. These ozone enhancements are also present in total O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; column observations. We find consistent decreases in springtime active chlorine following winters of elevated solar activity. Further analysis shows that this is accompanied by increase of chemically inactive chlorine reservoir species, explaining the observed ozone increase. This provides the first observational evidence supporting the previously proposed mechanism relating to EPP modulating chlorine driven ozone loss. Our findings suggest that solar activity via EPP has played an important role in modulating Antarctic ozone depletion in the last 15 years. As chlorine loading in the polar stratosphere continues to decrease in the future, this buffering mechanism will become less effective and catalytic ozone destruction by EPP produced NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; will likely become a major contributor to Antarctic ozone loss.&lt;/p&gt;

Atmospheric impacts of short-lived chlorinated species over the recent past: a chemistry-climate perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa Bednarz ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Luke Abraham ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;The emissions of most long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are now decreasing, owing to controls on their production introduced by Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, short-lived halogenated compounds can also have substantial impact on atmospheric chemistry, including stratospheric ozone, particularly if emitted near climatological uplift regions. It has recently become evident that emissions of some chlorinated very short-lived species (VSLSs), such as chloroform (CHCl&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;) and dichloromethane (CH&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;Cl&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;), could be larger than previously believed and increasing, particularly in Asia. While these may exert a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, their impacts remain poorly characterised.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We address this issue using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (CCM). While not only the first, to our knowledge, model study addressing this problem using a CCM, it is also the first such study employing a whole atmosphere model, thereby simulating the tropospheric Cl-VSLSs emissions and the resulting stratospheric impacts in a fully consistent manner. We use a newly developed Double-Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST) chemistry scheme, which includes emissions of all major chlorinated and brominated VSLSs alongside an extended treatment of long-lived ODSs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We examine the impacts of rising Cl-VSLSs emissions on atmospheric chlorine tracers and ozone, including their long-term trends. We pay particular attention to the role of &amp;#8216;nudging&amp;#8217;, as opposed to the free-running model set up, for the simulated Cl-VSLSs impacts, thereby demostrating the role of atmospheric dynamics in modulating the atmospheric responses to Cl-VSLSs. In addition, we employ novel estimates of Cl-VSLS emissions over the recent past and compare the results with the simulations that prescribe Cl-VSLSs using simple lower boundary conditions. This allows us to demonstrate the impact such choice has on the dominant location and seasonality of the Cl-VSLSs transport into the stratosphere.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Impact of biogenic very short-lived bromine on the Antarctic ozone hole during the 21st century

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1673-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael P. Fernandez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Jean-Francois Lamarque ◽  
Simone Tilmes ◽  
Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Hole Area ◽  
Photochemical Decomposition ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Antarctic Ozone Hole

Abstract. Active bromine released from the photochemical decomposition of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) enhances stratospheric ozone depletion. Based on a dual set of 1960–2100 coupled chemistry–climate simulations (i.e. with and without VSLBr), we show that the maximum Antarctic ozone hole depletion increases by up to 14 % when natural VSLBr are considered, which is in better agreement with ozone observations. The impact of the additional 5 pptv VSLBr on Antarctic ozone is most evident in the periphery of the ozone hole, producing an expansion of the ozone hole area of ∼ 5 million km2, which is equivalent in magnitude to the recently estimated Antarctic ozone healing due to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. We find that the inclusion of VSLBr in CAM-Chem (Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry, version 4.0) does not introduce a significant delay of the modelled ozone return date to 1980 October levels, but instead affects the depth and duration of the simulated ozone hole. Our analysis further shows that total bromine-catalysed ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere surpasses that of chlorine by the year 2070 and indicates that natural VSLBr chemistry would dominate Antarctic ozone seasonality before the end of the 21st century. This work suggests a large influence of biogenic bromine on the future Antarctic ozone layer.

Improved characterisation of the impact of chlorinated VSLSs on atmospheric chemistry and climate: past, present and future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa Bednarz ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Luke Abraham ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Emissions

&lt;p&gt;The emissions of most long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are now decreasing, owing to controls on their production introduced by Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, short-lived halogenated compounds can also have substantial impact on atmospheric chemistry, including stratospheric ozone, particularly if emitted near climatological uplift regions. It has recently become evident that emissions of some chlorinated very short-lived species (VSLSs), such as chloroform (CHCl&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;) and dichloromethane (CH&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;Cl&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;), could be larger than previously believed and increasing, particularly in Asia. While these may exert a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, their impacts remain poorly characterised.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We address this issue using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. We use a newly developed Double-Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST) chemistry scheme, which includes emissions of all major chlorinated and brominated VSLSs alongside an extended treatment of long-lived ODSs. Employing novel estimates of Cl-VSLS emissions we show model results regarding the atmospheric impacts of chlorinated VSLSs over the recent past (2000-present), with a focus on stratospheric ozone and HCl trends. Finally, we introduce our plans regarding examining the impacts of chlorinated VSLSs under a range of potential future emissions scenarios; the results of which will be directly relevant for the next WMO/UNEP assessment.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Antarctic ozone hole during 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Klekociuk ◽  
Matthew B. Tully ◽  
Paul B. Krummel ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
Volodymyr Kravchenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Hole Making ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Antarctic Ozone Hole

We review the 2017 Antarctic ozone hole, making use of various meteorological reanalyses, and in-situ, satellite and ground-based measurements of ozone and related trace gases, and ground-based measurements of ultraviolet radiation. The 2017 ozone hole was associated with relatively high-ozone concentrations over the Antarctic region compared to other years, and our analysis ranked it in the smallest 25% of observed ozone holes in terms of size. The severity of stratospheric ozone loss was comparable with that which occurred in 2002 (when the stratospheric vortex exhibited an unprecedented major warming) and most years prior to 1989 (which were early in the development of the ozone hole). Disturbances to the polar vortex in August and September that were associated with intervals of anomalous planetary wave activity resulted in significant erosion of the polar vortex and the mitigation of the overall level of ozone depletion. The enhanced wave activity was favoured by below-average westerly winds at high southern latitudes during winter, and the prevailing easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using proxy information on the chemical make-up of the polar vortex based on the analysis of nitrous oxide and the likely influence of the QBO, we suggest that the concentration of inorganic chlorine, which plays a key role in ozone loss, was likely similar to that in 2014 and 2016, when the ozone hole was larger than that in 2017. Finally, we found that the overall severity of Antarctic ozone loss in 2017 was largely dictated by the timing of the disturbances to the polar vortex rather than interannual variability in the level of inorganic chlorine.

scholarly journals Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Dhomse ◽  
W. Feng ◽  
S. A. Montzka ◽  
R. Hossaini ◽  
J. Keeble ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Antarctic Ozone Hole

AbstractThe Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr−1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.

scholarly journals Antarctic ozone hole modifies iodine geochemistry on the Antarctic Plateau

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Spolaor ◽  
François Burgay ◽  
Rafael P. Fernandez ◽  
Clara Turetta ◽  
Carlos A. Cuevas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Uv Radiation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Iodine Concentration ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Antarctic Plateau ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPolar stratospheric ozone has decreased since the 1970s due to anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and halons, resulting in the formation of an ozone hole over Antarctica. The effects of the ozone hole and the associated increase in incoming UV radiation on terrestrial and marine ecosystems are well established; however, the impact on geochemical cycles of ice photoactive elements, such as iodine, remains mostly unexplored. Here, we present the first iodine record from the inner Antarctic Plateau (Dome C) that covers approximately the last 212 years (1800-2012 CE). Our results show that the iodine concentration in ice remained constant during the pre-ozone hole period (1800-1974 CE) but has declined twofold since the onset of the ozone hole era (~1975 CE), closely tracking the total ozone evolution over Antarctica. Based on ice core observations, laboratory measurements and chemistry-climate model simulations, we propose that the iodine decrease since ~1975 is caused by enhanced iodine re-emission from snowpack due to the ozone hole-driven increase in UV radiation reaching the Antarctic Plateau. These findings suggest the potential for ice core iodine records from the inner Antarctic Plateau to be as an archive for past stratospheric ozone trends.

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