scholarly journals Process-based modelling of biogenic monoterpene emissions: sensitivity to temperature and light

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Schurgers ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
R. Holzinger ◽  
A. Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Specific Storage ◽  
Production Capacities

Abstract. Monoterpenes, primarily emitted by terrestrial vegetation, can influence atmospheric ozone chemistry, and can form precursors for secondary organic aerosol. The short-term emissions of monoterpenes have been well studied and understood, but their long-term variability, which is particularly important for atmospheric chemistry, has not. This understanding is crucial for the understanding of future changes. In this study, two algorithms of terrestrial biogenic monoterpene emissions, the first one based on the short-term volatilization of monoterpenes, as commonly used for temperature-dependent emissions, and the second one based on long-term production of monoterpenes (linked to photosynthesis) combined with emissions from storage, were compared and evaluated with measurements from a Ponderosa pine plantation (Blodgett Forest, California). The measurements were used to parameterize the long-term storage of monoterpenes, which takes place in specific storage organs and which determines the temporal distribution of the emissions over the year. The difference in assumptions between the first (emission-based) method and the second (production-based) method, which causes a difference in upscaling from instantaneous to daily emissions, requires roughly a doubling of emission capacities to bridge the gap to production capacities. The sensitivities to changes in temperature and light were tested for the new methods, the temperature sensitivity was slightly higher than that of the short-term temperature dependent algorithm. Applied on a global scale, the first algorithm resulted in annual total emissions of 29.6 Tg C a−1, the second algorithm resulted in 31.8 Tg C a−1 when applying the correction factor 2 between emission capacities and production capacities. However, the exact magnitude of such a correction is spatially varying and hard to determine as a global average.

scholarly journals Process-based modelling of biogenic monoterpene emissions combining production and release from storage

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 3409-3423 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Schurgers ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
R. Holzinger ◽  
A. H. Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Specific Storage ◽  
Production Capacities

Abstract. Monoterpenes, primarily emitted by terrestrial vegetation, can influence atmospheric ozone chemistry, and can form precursors for secondary organic aerosol. The short-term emissions of monoterpenes have been well studied and understood, but their long-term variability, which is particularly important for atmospheric chemistry, has not. This understanding is crucial for the understanding of future changes. In this study, two algorithms of terrestrial biogenic monoterpene emissions, the first one based on the short-term volatilization of monoterpenes, as commonly used for temperature-dependent emissions, and the second one based on long-term production of monoterpenes (linked to photosynthesis) combined with emissions from storage, were compared and evaluated with measurements from a Ponderosa pine plantation (Blodgett Forest, California). The measurements were used to parameterize the long-term storage of monoterpenes, which takes place in specific storage organs and which determines the temporal distribution of the emissions over the year. The difference in assumptions between the first (emission-based) method and the second (production-based) method, which causes a difference in upscaling from instantaneous to daily emissions, requires roughly a doubling of emission capacities to bridge the gap to production capacities. The sensitivities to changes in temperature and light were tested for the new methods, the temperature sensitivity was slightly higher than that of the short-term temperature dependent algorithm. Applied on a global scale, the first algorithm resulted in annual total emissions of 29.6 Tg C a−1, the second algorithm resulted in 31.8 Tg C a−1 when applying the correction factor 2 between emission capacities and production capacities. However, the exact magnitude of such a correction is spatially varying and hard to determine as a global average.

scholarly journals A systemic socio-ecological recovery from Covid-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 146801812110191
Author(s):  
William Hynes
Keyword(s):  
Financial Economic ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Economic Approach ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Policy Alternatives ◽  
Economic Thinking ◽  
Emergency Measures ◽  
Ecological Recovery

New economic thinking and acting through a systemic approach could outline policy alternatives to tackle the global-scale systemic challenges of financial, economic, social and environmental emergencies, and help steer our recovery out of the current crisis. A systemic recovery requires an economic approach that balances several factors - markets and states, efficiency and resilience, growth and sustainability, national and global stability, short-term emergency measures and long-term structural change. To achieve this, we need to think beyond our policy silos, comprehend our interconnections, and build resilience into our systems.

scholarly journals Assessing the Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Forest Species via Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Óscar Rodríguez de Rivera ◽  
Antonio López-Quílez ◽  
Marta Blangiardo
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Address Climate Change ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Relationship

Climatic change is expected to affect forest development in the short term, as well as the spatial distribution of species in the long term. Species distribution models are potentially useful tools for guiding species choices in reforestation and forest management prescriptions to address climate change. The aim of this study is to build spatial and spatio-temporal models to predict the distribution of four different species present in the Spanish Forest Inventory. We have compared the different models and showed how accounting for dependencies in space and time affect the relationship between species and environmental variables.

HISTORY, POLITICS, AND CLAIMS OF MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-271
Author(s):  
John David Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Protection Agency ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Scientific Support

Claims that a man-made global warming catastrophe is imminent have two major aspects: the scientific support offered for the claims, and the political proposals brought forth in response to the claims. The central questions are whether non-scientists should accept the claims themselves as true, and whether they should support the political proposals attached to them. Predictions of a coming disaster are shown to be a-historical in both the long term and the short term, to involve shifting predictions that are contrary to evidence, and to be opposed by many scientists. The political proposals to alleviate this alleged problem—especially plans by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—are shown to offer no alternative to fossil fuels, and to portend a major economic decline and permanent losses of liberty. The anthropogenic global warming claims are largely motivated not by science, but by a desire for socialist intervention on a national and a global scale. Neither the claims to an impending climate catastrophe nor the political proposals attached to those claims should be accepted.

scholarly journals Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Young ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
A. M. Fiore ◽  
A. Gaudel ◽  
J. Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for the problem being addressed, whether biases can be tolerated or corrected, whether the model is appropriately constituted, and whether there is a way to satisfactorily quantify the uncertainty.

scholarly journals Long-term field-realistic exposure to a next-generation pesticide, flupyradifurone, impairs honey bee behaviour and survival

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Tosi ◽  
James C. Nieh ◽  
Annely Brandt ◽  
Monica Colli ◽  
Julie Fourrier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Honey Bees ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Ring Test ◽  
Emerging Contaminant ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Insect Pollinators ◽  
Impact Of Pesticides ◽  
Term Field

AbstractThe assessment of pesticide risks to insect pollinators have typically focused on short-term, lethal impacts. The environmental ramifications of many of the world’s most commonly employed pesticides, such as those exhibiting systemic properties that can result in long-lasting exposure to insects, may thus be severely underestimated. Here, seven laboratories from Europe and North America performed a standardised experiment (a ring-test) to study the long-term lethal and sublethal impacts of the relatively recently approved ‘bee safe’ butenolide pesticide flupyradifurone (FPF, active ingredient in Sivanto®) on honey bees. The emerging contaminant, FPF, impaired bee survival and behaviour at field-realistic doses (down to 11 ng/bee/day, corresponding to 400 µg/kg) that were up to 101-fold lower than those reported by risk assessments (1110 ng/bee/day), despite an absence of time-reinforced toxicity. Our findings raise concerns about the chronic impact of pesticides on pollinators at a global scale and support a novel methodology for a refined risk assessment.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Landslides in Java and the Triggering Factors

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danang Sri Hadmoko ◽  
Franck Lavigne ◽  
Junun Sartohadi ◽  
Christopher Gomez ◽  
D Daryono
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Gis Environment

Java Island, the most populated island of Indonesia, is prone to landslide disasters. Their occurrence and impact have increased mainly as the result of natural factors, aggravated by human imprint. This paper is intended to analyse: (1) the spatio-temporal variation of landslides in Java during short term and long-term periods, and (2) their causative factors such as rainfall, topography, geology, earthquakes, and land-use. The evaluation spatially and temporally of historical landslides and consequences were based on the landslide database covering the period of 1981 – 2007 in the GIS environment. Database showed that landslides distributed unevenly between West Java (67 %), Central Java (29 %) and East Java (4 %). Slope failures were most abundant on the very intensively weathered zone of old volcanic materials on slope angles of 30O – 40O. Rainfall threshold analysis showed that shallow landslides and deep-seated landslides were triggered by rainfall events of 300 – 600 mm and > 600 mm respectively of antecedent rainfall during 30 consecutive days, and many cases showed that the landslides were not always initiated by intense rainfall during the landslide day. Human interference plays an important role in landslide occurrence through land conversion from natural forest to dryland agriculture which was the host of most of landslides in Java. These results and methods can be used as valuable information on the spatio-temporal characteristics of landslides in Java and their relationship with causative factors, thereby providing a sound basis for landslide investigation in more detail.

scholarly journals A climate-based model for tick life cycle: an infinite system of differential equation approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyrine Chenaoui ◽  
Slimane Ben Miled ◽  
Mamadou Sadio Ndongo ◽  
Papa Ibrahima Ndiaye ◽  
Mourad Rekik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physiological State ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tick Population ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Survival And Development

AbstractThe distribution of ticks is essentially determined by the presence of climatic conditions and ecological contexts suitable for their survival and development.We have developed a general tick biology model to study the major trends due to climate change on tick population dynamics under different climate conditions.We build a model that explicitly takes into account stage into each physiological state through a system of infinite differential equations where tick population density are structured on an infinite discrete set. We suppose that intrastage development process is temperature dependent (Arrhenius temperatures function) and that larvae hatching and adult mortality are temperature and precipitations dependent.We analysed mathematically the model and have explicit the R0 of the tick population. Therefore, we performed a numerical analysis of the model under three different climate conditions (tropical, Mediterranean and subarctic climates) over the short term using climatic data from 1995 to 2005, as well as long-term simulations from 1902 to 2005.

scholarly journals Chemical climatology of the southeastern United States, 1999–2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 17101-17159 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Hidy ◽  
C. L. Blanchard ◽  
K. Baumann ◽  
E. Edgerton ◽  
S. Tanenbaum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Subtropical Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pollution Levels ◽  
Organic Vapor ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
June July ◽  
Vapor Emissions

Abstract. A series of experiments (the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study-SOAS) took place in central Alabama in June–July 2013 as part of the broader Southern Atmosphere Study (SAS). These projects were aimed at studying oxidant photochemistry and formation and impacts of aerosols at a detailed process level in a location where high biogenic organic vapor emissions interact with anthropogenic emissions, and the atmospheric chemistry occurs in a subtropical climate in North America. The majority of the ground-based experiments were located at the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) Centreville (CTR) site near Brent, Alabama, where extensive, unique aerometric measurements of meteorology, trace gases and particles have been made from the early 1990s through 2013. The SEARCH network data permits a characterization of temporal and spatial context of the SOAS findings. The long-term measurements show that the SOAS experiments took place during the second wettest and coolest year in the 2000–2013 period, with lower than average solar radiation. The pollution levels at CTR and other SEARCH sites were the lowest since full measurements began in 1999. This dataset provides a perspective for the SOAS program in terms of long-term average chemistry (chemical climatology) and short-term comparisons of summer average spatial variability across the Southeast at high temporal (hourly) resolution. Changes in anthropogenic gas and particle emissions between 1999 and 2013, account for the decline in pollutant concentrations at the monitoring sites in the region. The long-term and short-term data provide an opportunity to contrast SOAS results with temporally and spatially variable conditions in support for the development of tests for the robustness of SOAS findings.

The Chemical Weather

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark G. Lawrence ◽  
Øystein Hov ◽  
Matthias Beekmann ◽  
Jørgen Brandt ◽  
Hendrik Elbern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Strong Influence ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chemical Complexity ◽  
Chemical Climate ◽  
Short Term Variability

Environmental Context. Meteorological weather—temperature, pressure, wind direction—is familiar to all, and contrasts with meteorological climate in short-term (weather) versus long-term (climate) influence. From the atmospheric chemistry side, the focus has largely been on the chemical climate, the long-term mean concentrations of important trace gases and aerosols. An emerging new focus of study is the chemical weather—the tremendous short-term variability of the atmospheric chemical composition, resulting from the strong influence of meteorological variability, chemical complexity, and regionally and temporally varying emissions.

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