scholarly journals A climate-based model for tick life cycle: an infinite system of differential equation approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyrine Chenaoui ◽  
Slimane Ben Miled ◽  
Mamadou Sadio Ndongo ◽  
Papa Ibrahima Ndiaye ◽  
Mourad Rekik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physiological State ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tick Population ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Survival And Development

AbstractThe distribution of ticks is essentially determined by the presence of climatic conditions and ecological contexts suitable for their survival and development.We have developed a general tick biology model to study the major trends due to climate change on tick population dynamics under different climate conditions.We build a model that explicitly takes into account stage into each physiological state through a system of infinite differential equations where tick population density are structured on an infinite discrete set. We suppose that intrastage development process is temperature dependent (Arrhenius temperatures function) and that larvae hatching and adult mortality are temperature and precipitations dependent.We analysed mathematically the model and have explicit the R0 of the tick population. Therefore, we performed a numerical analysis of the model under three different climate conditions (tropical, Mediterranean and subarctic climates) over the short term using climatic data from 1995 to 2005, as well as long-term simulations from 1902 to 2005.

scholarly journals Reconstructing Late Pleistocene paleoclimate at the scale of human behavior: an example from the Neandertal occupation of La Ferrassie (France)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Pederzani ◽  
Vera Aldeias ◽  
Harold L. Dibble ◽  
Paul Goldberg ◽  
Jean-Jacques Hublin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Behavior ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Tooth Enamel ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Human Scale ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Archaeological Materials ◽  
Climatic Records

AbstractExploring the role of changing climates in human evolution is currently impeded by a scarcity of climatic information at the same temporal scale as the human behaviors documented in archaeological sites. This is mainly caused by high uncertainties in the chronometric dates used to correlate long-term climatic records with archaeological deposits. One solution is to generate climatic data directly from archaeological materials representing human behavior. Here we use oxygen isotope measurements of Bos/Bison tooth enamel to reconstruct summer and winter temperatures in the Late Pleistocene when Neandertals were using the site of La Ferrassie. Our results indicate that, despite the generally cold conditions of the broader period and despite direct evidence for cold features in certain sediments at the site, Neandertals used the site predominantly when climatic conditions were mild, similar to conditions in modern day France. We suggest that due to millennial scale climate variability, the periods of human activity and their climatic characteristics may not be representative of average conditions inferred from chronological correlations with long-term climatic records. These results highlight the importance of using direct routes, such as the high-resolution archives in tooth enamel from anthropogenically accumulated faunal assemblages, to establish climatic conditions at a human scale.

scholarly journals Intention, Principle, Outputs and Aims of the Experimental Pavilion Research of Building Envelopes Including Windows for Wooden Buildings

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Štaffenová ◽  
Ján Rybárik ◽  
Miroslav Jakubčík
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Research ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Building Envelopes ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Time Period

AbstractThe aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.

scholarly journals Tracing Long- and Short-term Migrants for Participation in Demographic and Epidemiological Studies: Evidence from Senegal

Field Methods ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-57
Author(s):  
Mufaro Kanyangarara ◽  
Laetitia Douillot ◽  
Gilles Pison ◽  
Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye ◽  
Valerie Delaunay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Contact Information

Migration of participants in demographic and epidemiological studies results in missing data. One approach to reduce resulting losses in statistical power and potential biases is to follow up migrants at their new residence. We describe the follow-up of migrants who were eligible for participation in a trial of a new questionnaire to measure adult mortality in Niakhar, Senegal. We conducted a short inquiry in the migrant’s last known household to obtain contact information and then attempted to contact and interview 661 migrants who resided in Dakar, Mbour, and rural areas close to Niakhar. About two-thirds of migrants were successfully enrolled in the study. Having a contact phone number and knowing the name of the head of compound at destination increased the likelihood of successful enrollment. Following up migrants in demographic studies is feasible in low- and middle-income countries, including long-term migrants who have not been contacted for extended periods of time.

scholarly journals Influence of Climate Conditions on the Temporal Development of Wheat Yields in a Long-Term Experiment in an Area with Pleistocene Loess

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt Heil ◽  
Anna Lehner ◽  
Urs Schmidhalter
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiments ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Spring Frost ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Late Spring Frost

Field experiments were conducted to test different agronomic practices, such as soil cultivation, fertilization, and pest and weed management, in highly controlled plot cultivation. The inter-annual yields and the interpretation of such experiments is highly affected by the variability of climatic conditions and fertilization level. We examined the effect of different climate indices, such as winterkill, late spring frost, early autumn frost, different drought parameters, precipitation-free periods, and heat-related stress, on winter wheat yield. This experiment was conducted in an agricultural area with highly fertile conditions, characterized by a high available water capacity and considerable C and N contents in lower soil depths. Residuals were calculated from long-term yield trends with a validated method (time series autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA) and these served as base values for the detection of climate-induced, short-term, and inter-annual variations. In a subsequent step, the real yield values were used for their derivations from climate factors. Residuals and real yields were correlated with climate variables in multiple regression of quantitative analyses of the yield sensitivity. The inter-annual variation of yields varied considerably within the observation period. However, the variation was less an effect of the climatic conditions during the main growing time periods, being more of an effect of the prevailing climate conditions in the winter period as well as of the transition periods from winter to the warmer season and vice versa. The high storage capacity of plant available water exerted a remarkable dampening effect on drought-induced effects during the main vegetation periods. Increasing fertilization led to increased susceptibility to drought stress. The results indicate a changed picture of the yield development in these fertile locations.

scholarly journals A simple water-energy balance framework to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 8793-8830 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Renner ◽  
R. Seppelt ◽  
C. Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Average Change ◽  
Hydrology And Water Resources

Abstract. Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009) presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We provide a theoretical foundation of this concept by showing that it is based on a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. The concept uses a special condition that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing. Here we apply this assumption and derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity on climate. We show how climate sensitivity is influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the new method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Carsharing Service Demand Using Uni and Multivariable Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Aquiles Alencar ◽  
Lucas Ribeiro Pessamilio ◽  
Felipe Rooke da Silva ◽  
Heder Soares Bernardino ◽  
Alex Borges Vieira
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Car Sharing ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Service Demand ◽  
Boosting Algorithms

Abstract Car-sharing is an alternative to urban mobility that has been widely adopted. However, this approach is prone to several problems, such as fleet imbalance, due to the variance of the daily demand in large urban centers. In this work, we apply two time series techniques, namely, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Prophet, to infer the demand for three real car-sharing services. We also apply several state-of-the-art models on free-floating data in order to get a better understanding of what works best for this type of data. In addition to historical data, we also use climatic attributes in LSTM applications. As a result, the addition of meteorological data improved the model’s performance, especially on Evo: an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of approximately 61.13 travels was obtained with the demand data on Evo, while MAE equals 32.72 travels was observed when adding the climatic data, the other datasets also improved but none other improved this much. For the free-floating data test, we got the Boosting Algorithms (XGBoost, Catboost, and LightGBM) got the best performance short term, the worst one has an improvement of around 22% of MAE over the next best-ranked (Prophet). Meanwhile in the long term Prophet got the best MAE result, around 22.5% better than the second-best (LSTM).

scholarly journals FACTORS INFLUENCING ESTUARY SEDIMENT DISTRIBUTION

1976 ◽  
Vol 1 (15) ◽  
pp. 120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary P. Kendrick ◽  
B.V. Derbyshire
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Subsequent Period ◽  
Estuary Sediment

Many factors combine to determine the way in which sediments are distributed throughout an estuary. Most fundamental are those which produce the natural rhythm of diurnal (or semi-diurnal), bi-monthly and seasonal fluctuations due to predictable variations in tide and weather. This group includes tidal discharge, fresh river flow and the resultant distribution of saline water. When considered together with such factors as the availability and properties of sediments within and beyond the landward and seaward limits of an estuary, they determine how the available material shall be eroded, transported and deposited during the course of the natural cycle. Superimposed on these regular fluctuations are the effects of other factors which may or may not be predictable, are not necessarily regular in occurrence and may be either natural or man-made. These include secular trends, such as long-term adjustments in land/sea levels or climatic conditions, which have a small but continuing effect on some of the factors in the first group. They also include sudden, short-term events like earthquakes or hurricanes which impose a shock to the system that may involve the movement of large quantities of material during the subsequent period of readjustment.

scholarly journals Process-based modelling of biogenic monoterpene emissions combining production and release from storage

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 3409-3423 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Schurgers ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
R. Holzinger ◽  
A. H. Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Specific Storage ◽  
Production Capacities

Abstract. Monoterpenes, primarily emitted by terrestrial vegetation, can influence atmospheric ozone chemistry, and can form precursors for secondary organic aerosol. The short-term emissions of monoterpenes have been well studied and understood, but their long-term variability, which is particularly important for atmospheric chemistry, has not. This understanding is crucial for the understanding of future changes. In this study, two algorithms of terrestrial biogenic monoterpene emissions, the first one based on the short-term volatilization of monoterpenes, as commonly used for temperature-dependent emissions, and the second one based on long-term production of monoterpenes (linked to photosynthesis) combined with emissions from storage, were compared and evaluated with measurements from a Ponderosa pine plantation (Blodgett Forest, California). The measurements were used to parameterize the long-term storage of monoterpenes, which takes place in specific storage organs and which determines the temporal distribution of the emissions over the year. The difference in assumptions between the first (emission-based) method and the second (production-based) method, which causes a difference in upscaling from instantaneous to daily emissions, requires roughly a doubling of emission capacities to bridge the gap to production capacities. The sensitivities to changes in temperature and light were tested for the new methods, the temperature sensitivity was slightly higher than that of the short-term temperature dependent algorithm. Applied on a global scale, the first algorithm resulted in annual total emissions of 29.6 Tg C a−1, the second algorithm resulted in 31.8 Tg C a−1 when applying the correction factor 2 between emission capacities and production capacities. However, the exact magnitude of such a correction is spatially varying and hard to determine as a global average.

Patterns of Population Movement and Long-Term Population Growth in Southwestern Colorado

1988 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 773-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah H. Schlanger
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Water Control ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Population Movements ◽  
History Of

In spite of considerable fluctuations in the likelihood of agricultural success from place to place and from time to time, the southern Colorado Plateaus show a smooth increase in farming populations between A.D. 1 and 1150. At the local level, however, population curves in this region often register a pattern of short-lived occupations and abandonments that are tied to specific patterns of short-term and long-term climatic conditions. The prehistoric population record from the Dolores area, in the southwestern corner of Colorado, demonstrates how localized population adjustments to climatically sensitive environments can result in long-term population increases. Here, a 600-year history of population increase was maintained primarily through population movements between environmentally complementary places. When that strategy failed, due to a combination of adverse short-term and long-term climatic conditions, agricultural methods shifted from rainfall farming to intensified agriculture supported by water-control facilities.

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