Towards a climatology of sensitivities of Mediterranean high impact weather − first approach

Abstract. During recent years, great interest has grown within the operational weather community on the adaptable component of observational networks. Decisions regarding where to deploy new observations of special value under threatening weather, or regarding permanent changes in observational strategies need support from sensitivity studies that determine areas where the addition of observations would optimally improve the skill of numerical predictions. Within the context of the MEDEX project (http://medex.inm.uib.es), the sensitivities of a collection of severe weather episodes in the Mediterranean have been computed using the MM5 Adjoint Modeling system. Various approaches are explored trying to summarize the results for the diversity of cases that produce high impact weather (HIW; mainly heavy rain and strong winds) in the Mediterranean region. A first attempt uses an objective classification of the trajectories of the most intense cyclone types from the ERA-40 reanalyses. Sensitivities are then computed for each group of frequent trajectories, providing a prototype sensitivity field for each of the most frequent intense cyclones in the Mediterranean. However, a large portion of HIW episodes in the Mediterranean are not linked to significantly intense cyclones within the climatology. Consequently, a subjective classification of HIW events is also performed and the sensitivity fields for an example case is shown to complete the study. Although the sensitive areas for Mediterranean HIW are not particularly confined, it is remarkable how poorly sampled areas by the regular observing networks such as North Africa and the eastern North-Atlantic are highlighted in the results.

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Heavy rain events in the Western Mediterranean: an atmospheric pattern classification

Advances in Science and Research ◽

10.5194/asr-2-61-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 61-64 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

C. Martínez ◽

J. Campins ◽

A. Jansà ◽

A. Genovés

Keyword(s):

Heavy Rain ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

High Impact ◽

Good Relationship ◽

Operational Analysis ◽

Mediterranean Regions ◽

High Impact Weather ◽

Components Analysis ◽

Rain Events

Abstract. Heavy rain is one of the most important high-impact weather phenomena that occasionally affect Mediterranean areas. The aim of this study is to achieve a classification of atmospheric patterns related to heavy rain events in both French and Spanish Mediterranean regions. The classification is made on some atmospheric fields (geopotential at 1000 hPa and at 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa) of HIRLAM-INM-0.5° operational analysis, for heavy rain events included in the High Impact Weather MEDEX database. It covers a period of roughly 7 and a half years, from January 1997 to May 2004. A Principal Components Analysis was conducted to reduce the number of variables. After that, by means of a Cluster Analysis, the heavy rain events are classified into 8 atmospheric patterns. The results show a good relationship between regions affected by heavy rain and atmospheric patterns, in the sense that the same atmospheric patterns usually produce heavy rain in different regions, and heavy rain in different regions is usually due to specific atmospheric patterns.

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Towards a systematic climatology of sensitivities of Mediterranean high impact weather: a contribution based on intense cyclones

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-7-445-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 445-454 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

V. Homar ◽

A. Jansà ◽

J. Campins ◽

A. Genovés ◽

C. Ramis

Keyword(s):

North Africa ◽

North Atlantic ◽

High Impact ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Mediterranean Cyclones ◽

Era40 Reanalysis ◽

High Impact Weather ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Eastern North Atlantic ◽

Objective Cluster

Abstract. One of the multiple approaches currently explored to mitigate the effects of hydro-meteorological hazardous events aims at improving the numerical weather forecasts. Under an ever increasing societal demand for cost cuts and more precise forecasts, targeted observations are currently receiving great attention within the operational weather community. The MEDEX project (http://medex.inm.uib.es) is aimed at improving the forecasts of high impact weather (HIW) in the Mediterranean and, in particular, proposes the creation of a climatology of sensitivities of such episodes. The construction of a comprehensive climatology of sensitivities is hampered by the lack of an exhaustive collection of Mediterranean HIW events. In this study we contribute with a systematic climatology of Mediterranean intense cyclones. We perform an objective cluster analysis of intense cyclones detected from the ECMWF ERA40 reanalysis using a k-means algorithm and compute the sensitivities for each of the resulting classes. For each cluster, a representative sensitivity field is computed using the MM5 Adjoint Modeling system. The results show that although the sensitive areas for intense Mediterranean cyclones are not particularly confined, it is remarkable how areas poorly sampled by the regular observing networks, such as North Africa, the Mediterranean Sea and the eastern North-Atlantic, are highlighted in the prototype sensitivity maps.

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A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (5) ◽

pp. 1513-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Oriol Rodríguez ◽

Joan Bech ◽

Juan de Dios Soriano ◽

Delia Gutiérrez ◽

Salvador Castán

Keyword(s):

Field Studies ◽

High Impact ◽

Strong Wind ◽

Field Surveys ◽

Weather Events ◽

Straight Line ◽

High Impact Weather ◽

Strong Winds ◽

Wind Events ◽

The One

Abstract. Post-event damage assessments are of paramount importance to document the effects of high-impact weather-related events such as floods or strong wind events. Moreover, evaluating the damage and characterizing its extent and intensity can be essential for further analysis such as completing a diagnostic meteorological case study. This paper presents a methodology to perform field surveys of damage caused by strong winds of convective origin (i.e. tornado, downburst and straight-line winds). It is based on previous studies and also on 136 field studies performed by the authors in Spain between 2004 and 2018. The methodology includes the collection of pictures and records of damage to human-made structures and on vegetation during the in situ visit to the affected area, as well as of available automatic weather station data, witness reports and images of the phenomenon, such as funnel cloud pictures, taken by casual observers. To synthesize the gathered data, three final deliverables are proposed: (i) a standardized text report of the analysed event, (ii) a table consisting of detailed geolocated information about each damage point and other relevant data and (iii) a map or a KML (Keyhole Markup Language) file containing the previous information ready for graphical display and further analysis. This methodology has been applied by the authors in the past, sometimes only a few hours after the event occurrence and, on many occasions, when the type of convective phenomenon was uncertain. In those uncertain cases, the information resulting from this methodology contributed effectively to discern the phenomenon type thanks to the damage pattern analysis, particularly if no witness reports were available. The application of methodologies such as the one presented here is necessary in order to build homogeneous and robust databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events.

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MEDEX: a general overview

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (8) ◽

pp. 1965-1984 ◽

Cited By ~ 49

Author(s):

A. Jansa ◽

P. Alpert ◽

P. Arbogast ◽

A. Buzzi ◽

B. Ivancan-Picek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Social Impact ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

High Impact ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Mediterranean Cyclones ◽

High Impact Weather ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Prediction Systems ◽

Two Phases ◽

Scientific Achievements

Abstract. The general objective of the international MEDiterranean EXperiment (MEDEX) was the better understanding and forecasting of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean. This paper reviews the motivation and foundation of MEDEX, the gestation, history and organisation of the project, as well as the main products and scientific achievements obtained from it. MEDEX obtained the approval of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and can be considered as framed within other WMO actions, such as the ALPine EXperiment (ALPEX), the Mediterranean Cyclones Study Project (MCP) and, to a certain extent, THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) and the HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX). Through two phases (2000–2005 and 2006–2010), MEDEX has produced a specific database, with information about cyclones and severe or high impact weather events, several main reports and a specific data targeting system field campaign (DTS-MEDEX-2009). The scientific achievements are significant in fields like climatology, dynamical understanding of the physical processes and social impact of cyclones, as well as in aspects related to the location of sensitive zones for individual cases, the climatology of sensitivity zones and the improvement of the forecasts through innovative methods like mesoscale ensemble prediction systems.

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High impact weather and cyclones simultaneity in Catalonia

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-12-115-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

pp. 115-120 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

J. Campins ◽

M. Aran ◽

A. Genovés ◽

A. Jansà

Keyword(s):

Heavy Rain ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

High Impact ◽

Strong Wind ◽

Accurate Forecast ◽

High Impact Weather ◽

Deep Cyclone ◽

Almost All ◽

Meso Scale

Abstract. The Western Mediterranean in general and Catalonia in particular are usually affected by high impact weather (HIW) events, mainly heavy rain (HR) and strong wind (SW). The improvement in the understanding and the accurate forecast of such events are major concerns for the meteorologists of the region. In the present study, HR and SW events in Catalonia are cross-referenced with an objective cyclone database for a 9-year period (from June 1995 to May 2004). Results show that in most of the HR events a cyclone is located close to Catalonia, in such a way that the feeding of a moist flow to the affected region was favoured. These cyclones can be either shallow and weak or deep and intense. A simultaneous cyclone also appears to be connected with many SW events. However, other SW events seem to be related to meso-scale circulations and, as a result, not always well captured in the cyclone database. Finally, coincident HR and SW events are analysed. In almost all of such events a deep cyclone is located in the vicinity of Catalonia.

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A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high impact weather events from convective origin

10.5194/nhess-2019-294 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Oriol Rodríguez ◽

Joan Bech ◽

Juan de Dios Soriano ◽

Delia Gutiérrez ◽

Salvador Castán

Keyword(s):

High Impact ◽

Strong Wind ◽

Field Surveys ◽

Weather Events ◽

Damage Field ◽

High Impact Weather ◽

Strong Winds ◽

Wind Events ◽

The One

Abstract. Post-event damage assessments are essential to document the effects of high-impact weather events such as floods or strong wind events. Moreover, evaluating the damage and characterizing its extension and intensity can be helpful for further analysis such as completing a diagnostic meteorological case study. This paper presents a methodology to perform field surveys of damage caused by strong winds of convective origin, i.e. tornado, downburst and other types of convective winds. It is based on previous studies and also on 136 fieldworks performed by the authors in Spain from 2004 to 2018. The methodology includes the systematic collection of pictures and records of damages on man-made structures and on vegetation, as well as collection of any available Automatic Weather Station data, witness reports and images of the phenomenon and their location and orientation. Three final deliverables are proposed to synthesize the data recorded: (i) A summary of the fieldwork; (ii) A table consisting of detailed geolocated information about each damage, and (iii) A map or a .kml file containing the previous information ready for graphical display and further analysis. This methodology has been applied by the authors in the past, sometimes only a few hours after the event occurrence and, in many occasions, when the type of convective phenomenon (e.g. tornado, downburst) was uncertain. In the latter case the information resulting from this methodology has proofed very useful to discern the phenomenon type, based on the damage patterns particularly if no witness reports were available. The application of systematic methodologies as the one presented here is necessary in order to build homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high impact weather events.

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“Stay with me. Talk to me”: reader interaction strategies in modern poetry

Communication Studies ◽

10.24147/2413-6182.2020.7(2).419-436 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 419-436

Author(s):

Olga Igorevna Severskaya

Keyword(s):

Discourse Analysis ◽

High Impact ◽

Modern Poetry ◽

Self Presentation ◽

Communication Plan ◽

Communicative Strategies ◽

The World ◽

Poetic Text ◽

Communicative Context

The article is devoted to the consideration of a poetic text as a communicative phenomenon with a high impact potential. The author defines the features of poetic communication, which is both mass and interpersonal, and its main goal, which is the poet’s desire to communicate author’s vision of the world and thereby change the picture of the reader’s world, achieving empathy from it. Based on the understanding of the speech strategy as a cognitive communication plan, a program for generating and perceiving speech, the author talks about the fundamental reversibility of text-generating and interpretative strategies and offers own classification of strategies and tactics that are most often used in modern poetry. In this classification, the main communicative strategies of self-presentation and rapprochement with the reader are associated with auxiliary discursive strategies of actualizing, dramatizing and dialogizing the text and programming interpretations by tactics for highlighting objects and situations using sound “gestures”, pointing to the referent, framing, directly introducing the reader into the communicative context, attracting the recipient’s attention through appeals and pragmatic instructions, interrogation, and some others. Particular attention is paid to the multimodality of interactions and its specific manifestations in poetic discourse. The study is based on the material of Russian poetry of the 1980- 2000s using the methods of intent and discourse analysis.

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Compound Events of Tropical Cyclone and Flooding in India

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15759 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Akshay Rajeev ◽

Vimal Mishra

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Disaster Mitigation ◽

Infiltration Capacity ◽

Monsoon Period ◽

Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽

Vic Model ◽

Compound Events ◽

Strong Winds

<p>India is severely affected by tropical cyclones (TC) each year, which generates intense rainfall and strong winds leading to flooding. Most of the TC induced floods have been attributed to heavy rain associated with them. Here we show that both rainfall and elevated antecedent soil moisture due to temporally compounding tropical cyclones cause floods in the major Indian basins. We assess each basin's response to observed TC events from 1980 to 2019 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The VIC model was calibrated (R2 > 0.5) and evaluated against observed hourly streamflow for major river basins in India. We find that rainfall due to TC does not result in floods in the basin, even for rainfall intensities similar to the monsoon period. However, TCs produce floods in the basins, when antecedent soil moisture was high. Our findings have implications for the understanding of TC induced floods, which is crucial for disaster mitigation and management.</p>

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