scholarly journals Validation of the METEOSAT storm detection and nowcasting system Cb-TRAM with lightning network data – Europe and South Africa

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1269-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Zinner ◽  
C. Forster ◽  
E. de Coning ◽  
H.-D. Betz

Abstract. In this manuscript, recent changes to the DLR METEOSAT thunderstorm TRacking And Monitoring algorithm (Cb-TRAM) are presented as well as a validation of Cb-TRAM against the European ground-based LIghtning NETwork data (LINET) of Nowcast GmbH and Lightning Detection Network (LDN) data of the South African Weather Service (SAWS). The validation is conducted along the well known skill scores probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) on the basis of METEOSAT/SEVIRI pixels as well as on the basis of thunderstorm objects. The values obtained demonstrate the limits of Cb-TRAM in specific as well as the limits of satellite methods in general which are based on thermal emission and solar reflectivity information from thunderstorm tops. Although the climatic conditions and the occurence of thunderstorms is quite different for Europe and South Africa, the quality score values are similar. Our conclusion is that Cb-TRAM provides robust results of well-defined quality for very different climatic regimes. The POD for a thunderstorm with intense lightning is about 80% during the day. The FAR for a Cb-TRAM detected thunderstorm which is not at least close to intense lightning activity is about 50%; if the proximity to any lightning activity is evaluated the FAR is even much lower at about 15%. Pixel-based analysis shows that the detected thunderstorm object size is not indiscriminately large, but well within the physical limitations of the method. Nighttime POD and FAR are somewhat worse as the detection scheme can not use high resolution visible information. Nowcasting scores show useful values up to approximatelly 30 min.

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1567-1583 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Zinner ◽  
C. Forster ◽  
E. de Coning ◽  
H.-D. Betz

Abstract. In this paper, recent changes to the Meteosat thunderstorm TRacking And Monitoring algorithm (Cb-TRAM) are presented as well as a validation of Cb-TRAM against data from the European ground-based LIghtning NETwork (LINET) of Nowcast GmbH and the South African Weather Service Lightning Detection Network (SAWS LDN). Validation is conducted along the well-known skill measures probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) on the basis of Meteosat/SEVIRI pixels as well as on the basis of thunderstorm objects. The values obtained demonstrate specific limitations of Cb-TRAM, as well as limitations of satellite methods in general which are based on thermal emission and solar reflectivity information from thunderstorm cloud tops. Although the climatic conditions and the occurrence of thunderstorms are quite different for Europe and South Africa, quality score values are similar. Our conclusion is that Cb-TRAM provides robust results of well-defined quality for very different climatic regimes. The POD for a thunderstorm with intense lightning is about 80% during the day. The FAR for a Cb-TRAM detection which is not even close to intense lightning is about 50%. If only proximity to any lightning activity is required, FAR is much lower at about 15%. Pixel-based analysis shows that detected thunderstorm object size is not indiscriminately large, but well within physical limitations of the satellite method. Night-time POD and FAR are somewhat worse as the detection scheme does not use the high-resolution visible information during night-time hours. Nowcasting scores show useful values up to approximately 30 min in advance.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3933
Author(s):  
Solomon E. Uhunamure ◽  
Karabo Shale

South Africa is been faced with erratic power supply, resulting in persistent load shedding due to ageing in most of its coal-fired power plants. Associated with generating electricity from fossil fuel are environmental consequences such as greenhouse emissions and climate change. On the other hand, the country is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources that can potentially ameliorate its energy needs. This article explores the viability of renewable energy using the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis approach on the key renewable potential in the country. The result indicates that geographic position, political and economic stability and policy implementation are some of the strengths. However, Government bureaucratic processes, level of awareness and high investment cost are some of the weaknesses. Several opportunities favour switching to renewable energy, and these include regional integration, global awareness on climate change and the continuous electricity demand. Some threats hindering the renewable energy sector in the country include land ownership, corruption and erratic climatic conditions. Some policy implications are suggested based on the findings of the study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chukwuedozie K. Ajaero ◽  
Nicole De Wet-Billings ◽  
Chiemezie Atama ◽  
Prince Agwu ◽  
Eberechukwu J. Eze

Abstract Background The socioeconomic conditions of different environments manifest in varying experiences of illnesses. Even as migrants do transit across these different environments for various reasons, including settlement, they are bound to have peculiar experiences of diseases, which could be traced to lifestyle, gender, adaptation, and reactions to specific social, economic, psychological and climatic conditions. Paying attention to such unique scenarios, our study examines the prevalence and contextual correlates of non-communicable diseases among inter-provincial migrants and non-migrants in South Africa. Methods Data was from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), waves 5 of 2017, which comprised of 28,055 respondents aged 15–64 years made up of 22,849 inter-provincial non-migrants and 5206 inter-provincial migrants. A composite dependent/outcome variable of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) was generated for the study and data analysis involved descriptive statistics, chi Square analysis and multilevel logistic regression analysis. Results More migrants (19.81%) than non-migrants (16.69%) reported prevalence of NCDs. With the exception of household size for migrants and smoking for non-migrants, the prevalence of NCDs showed significant differences in all the community, behavioral, and individual variables. The factors in the full model, which significantly increased odds of NCDs among the migrants and the non-migrants, were older populations, the non-Blacks, and those with higher education levels. On the one hand, being married, having a household with 4–6 persons, and being residents of urban areas significantly increased odds of NCDs among the migrant population. While on the other, living in coastal provinces, being a female, and belonging to the category of those who earn more than 10,000 Rands were significantly associated with increased odds of NCDs among the non-migrants. Conclusions These findings, therefore, among other things underscore the need for increased education and awareness campaigns, especially among the older populations on the preventive and mitigative strategies for NCDs. In addition, changes in lifestyles with regard to smoking and physical exercises should be more emphasized in specific contextual situations for the migrant and non-migrant populations, as highlighted by the results of this study.


2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Tao ◽  
Ana P. Barros

Abstract The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L ≫ l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (∼25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (∼4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied.


Author(s):  
Volodymyr Shostak ◽  
Olexandr Bormotov ◽  
Davide Pavanello ◽  
Wasyl Janischewskyj ◽  
Farhad Rachidi

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 2645-2656 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. C. Pagano

Abstract. This study created a 13-year historical archive of operational flood forecasts issued by the Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center (RFMMC) of the Mekong River Commission. The RFMMC issues 1- to 5-day daily deterministic river height forecasts for 22 locations throughout the wet season (June–October). When these forecasts reach near flood level, government agencies and the public are encouraged to take protective action against damages. When measured by standard skill scores, the forecasts perform exceptionally well (e.g., 1 day-ahead Nash–Sutcliffe > 0.99) although much of this apparent skill is due to the strong seasonal cycle and the narrow natural range of variability at certain locations. Five-day forecasts upstream of Phnom Penh typically have 0.8 m error standard deviation, whereas below Phnom Penh the error is typically 0.3 m. The coefficients of persistence for 1-day forecasts are typically 0.4–0.8 and 5-day forecasts are typically 0.1–0.7. RFMMC uses a series of benchmarks to define a metric of percentage satisfactory forecasts. As the benchmarks were derived based on the average error, certain locations and lead times consistently appear less satisfactory than others. Instead, different benchmarks were proposed and derived based on the 70th percentile of absolute error over the 13-year period. There are no obvious trends in the percentage of satisfactory forecasts from 2002 to 2012, regardless of the benchmark chosen. Finally, when evaluated from a categorical "crossing above/not-crossing above flood level" perspective, the forecasts have a moderate probability of detection (48% at 1 day ahead, 31% at 5 days ahead) and false alarm rate (13% at 1 day ahead, 74% at 5 days ahead).


MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-90
Author(s):  
PIYUSH JOSHI ◽  
M.S. SHEKHAR ◽  
ASHAVANI KUMAR ◽  
J.K. QUAMARA

Kalpana satellite images in real time available by India meteorological department (IMD), contain relevant inputs about the cloud in infra-red (IR), water vapor (WV), and visible (VIS) bands. In the present study an attempt has been made to forecast precipitation at six stations in western Himalaya by using extracted grey scale values of IR and WV images. The extracted pixel values at a location are trained for the corresponding precipitation at that location. The precipitation state at 0300 UTC is considered to train the model for precipitation forecast with 24 hour lead time. The satellite images acquired in IR (10.5 - 12.5 µm) and WV (5.7 - 7.1 µm) bands have been used for developing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for qualitative as well as quantitative precipitation forecast. The model results are validated with ground observations and skill scores are computed to check the potential of the model for operational purpose. The probability of detection at the six stations varies from 0.78 for Gulmarg in Pir-Panjal range to 0.95 for Dras in Greater Himalayan range. Overall performance for qualitative forecast is in the range from 61% to 84%. Root mean square error for different locations under study is in the range 5.81 to 8.7.


Author(s):  
Б.Л. Пхарое ◽  
А.Н. Евдокимов

Северо-западный регион ЮАР до недавнего времени не являлся промышленно марганценосным. Однако результаты изучения последних лет дают основание думать, что здесь могут быть залежи марганцевых руд. Марганцевое оруденение в этом регионе встречается в виде марганцевых конкреций, порошкообразного марганцевого вада и марганцевых корок в коре выветривания. Марганцевые конкреции приурочены к аллювиальной части «Westwits alluvium» рудного разреза и марганцевый вад накоплялся в карстовых структурах, образовавшихся в результате приповерхностного выветривания, выщелачивания и растворения подстилающих марганценосных неоархейских доломитов. Предполагается два потенциальных источника марганца: первый расположен непосредственно под рудным телом, а второй – на существенном удалении от него. Если первый источник рудного вещества поставлял марганец из подстилающих доломитов в процессе их выветривания, то второй вариант подразумевает существенный перенос металла из неизвестных коренных источников, расположенных на значительном удалении от области рудонакопления. Таким образом, для решения этого вопроса, необходимо провести экспериментальные исследования, изучающие природу, минералогию и источник сноса терригенных отложений «вмещающих материалов» верхнего рудного разреза. Цель работы – уточнить природу марганценосных терригенных залежей «Westwits alluvium» и, что самое важное, определить их коренной источник поступления и собственно минеральный состав. Методики исследования включали: петрографическое описание пород, геохимические анализы методами XRF и SEM, подсчеты объемного состава детритовых минералов и анализ дискриминационных диаграмм. Результаты. В результате проведенных исследований было установлено, что терригенные зёрна в основном представлены кварцем. Содержание полевых шпатов, минералов цемента и глинистых минералов не более 20 %. Использована классификация составов терригенного материала, основанная на подсчете в объемных процентах зерен кварца, полевого шпата, обломочных зерен других пород (вулканических, магматических и метаморфических пород), слюды и др. По этим данным были определены вероятные источники сноса, которыми являются породы Рэнд-Антиклинального хребта, расположенного к югу от изучаемого региона, а также архейские граниты, гнейсы и мафические-ультрамафические породы Каапваальского кратона. Осадконакопление происходило в низменной равнине с тропическим умеренно влажным и субгумидным климатом. Здесь, при повышенном рН воды происходило интенсивное выщелачивание пород и замещение детритовых зерен разного минерального состава диоксидом марганца. Ключевые слова: марганцовистый аллювий, третичный, терригенные отложения, Каапваальский кратон, Южная Африка The North-West region of the Republic of South Africa was previously not considered to constitute of manganese mineralization of industrial value. However, recently published articles indicated the presence of secondary manganese mineralization in the weathering crust, underlain by the manganiferous Neoarchean dolomites. Manganese mineralization in this region occurs in the form of manganese nodules, powdered manganese wad, and manganese crusts. Manganese nodules are confined to the alluvial part of the ore section known as the «Westwits alluvium» and manganese wad is accumulated in karstic structures formed as a result of near-surface weathering, leaching, and dissolution of underlying manganese-bearing Neoarchean dolomites. Two potential sources of manganese are assumed: the first relates to the dolomites which are located directly under the ore body, and the second relates to the source areas of terrigenous deposits. If the first hypothesis suggests that manganese ore substances were supplied from the underlying dolomites during their weathering, the second option then implies a significant transfer of metal from unknown root sources located at a considerable distance from the area of ore accumulation. Thus, it is necessary to conduct petrographic study to reconstruct their source regions and understand the close relations with Mn mineralization. Aim is to clarify the nature of the manganese-bearing terrigenous deposits «Westwits alluvium» and, most importantly, to determine their root source of supply and the actual mineral composition. Methodology of study includes mainly: petrographic study of rocks, geochemical analyses with the use of XRF and SEM methods, modal compositional analysis of the detrital minerals, and analysis of discrimination diagrams. Results. As a result of the conducted research, it was found that terrigenous grains consist mainly of detrital quartz grains. The content of feldspars, cement minerals and clay minerals seldom exceeds 20 %. The classification of terrigenous material based on the calculation of the volumetric percentage of the detrital framework grains: quartz, feldspar, clastic grains of other rocks types (volcanic, igneous and metamorphic rocks), mica, indicated probable source areas of the terrigenous sediments. These include metasedimentary rocks of the Rand Anticline Ridge which is located south of the studied region, and Archean granites, gneisses, and mafic-ultramafic rocks of the Kaapvaal Craton. In the basin of deposition, sedimentation occurred in a lowland plain within tropical region, characterized by moderately humid and sub-humid climatic conditions. These conditions, combined with oxidation and increased pH of the basin waters, contributed to the replacement of detrital grains with manganese dioxide


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document