scholarly journals The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO<sub>2</sub> drawdown potential in an Earth system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1367-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malin Ödalen ◽  
Jonas Nycander ◽  
Kevin I. C. Oliver ◽  
Laurent Brodeau ◽  
Andy Ridgwell
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
System Model ◽  
Biological Pump ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Heat Diffusivity ◽  
Initial States ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Heat

Abstract. During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90–100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is, however, still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore the sensitivity of ocean carbon storage to ocean circulation state. We carry out a set of simulations in which we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but in which we achieve different states of ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air–sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in the strength of the ocean overturning circulation. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean diapycnal diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean isopycnal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Despite this complexity, we obtain a negative linear relationship between total ocean carbon and the combined strength of the northern and southern overturning cells. This relationship is robust to different reservoirs dominating the response to different forcing mechanisms. Finally, we conduct a drawdown experiment in which we investigate the capacity for increased carbon storage by artificially maximising the efficiency of the biological pump in our ensemble members. We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon pumps in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable. The drawdown experiment highlights the importance of the strength of the biological pump in the control state for model studies of increased biological efficiency.

scholarly journals The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO<sub>2</sub> drawdown potential in an Earth system model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malin Ödalen ◽  
Jonas Nycander ◽  
Kevin I. C. Oliver ◽  
Laurent Brodeau ◽  
Andy Ridgwell
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
System Model ◽  
Biological Pump ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Heat Diffusivity ◽  
Initial States ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Heat

Abstract. During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90–100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is however still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to constrain the range in ocean carbon storage for an ensemble of ocean circulation equilibrium states. We do a set of simulations where we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but where we achieve different ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air-sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in strength of ocean overturning circulation. In cases with weaker circulation, we see that the ocean's capacity for carbon storage is larger. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter that is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean vertical diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean horizontal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Finally, we do a drawdown experiment, where we investigate the capacity for increased carbon storage by maximising the efficiency of the biological pump in our ensemble members. We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage, due to differences in the ocean circulation state. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon pumps in model intercomparison studies, where the initial states vary between models. The drawdown experiment highlights the importance of the strength of the biological pump in the control state for model studies of increased biological efficiency.

scholarly journals Air-sea disequilibrium enhances ocean carbon storage during glacial periods

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. eaaw4981 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Khatiwala ◽  
A. Schmittner ◽  
J. Muglia
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
System Model ◽  
Biological Pump ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Iron Fertilization ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Glacial Periods

The prevailing hypothesis for lower atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations during glacial periods is an increased efficiency of the ocean’s biological pump. However, tests of this and other hypotheses have been hampered by the difficulty to accurately quantify ocean carbon components. Here, we use an observationally constrained earth system model to precisely quantify these components and the role that different processes play in simulated glacial-interglacial CO2 variations. We find that air-sea disequilibrium greatly amplifies the effects of cooler temperatures and iron fertilization on glacial ocean carbon storage even as the efficiency of the soft-tissue biological pump decreases. These two processes, which have previously been regarded as minor, explain most of our simulated glacial CO2 drawdown, while ocean circulation and sea ice extent, hitherto considered dominant, emerge as relatively small contributors.

scholarly journals Diagnosing CO2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-62
Author(s):  
Tilla Roy ◽  
Jean Baptiste Sallée ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Nicolas Metzl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Buffering Capacity ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Mode Waters ◽  
Ocean Carbon

AbstractAnthropogenic CO2 emission-induced feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system perturb the efficiency of atmospheric CO2 uptake by land and ocean carbon reservoirs. The Southern Ocean is a region where these feedbacks can be largest and differ most among Earth System Model projections of 21st century climate change. To improve our mechanistic understanding of these feedbacks, we develop an automated procedure that tracks changes in the positions of Southern Ocean water masses and their carbon uptake. In an idealised ensemble of climate change projections, we diagnose two carbon–concentration feedbacks driven by atmospheric CO2 (due to increasing air-sea CO2 partial pressure difference, dpCO2, and reducing carbonate buffering capacity) and two carbon–climate feedbacks driven by climate change (due to changes in the water mass surface outcrop areas and local climate impacts). Collectively these feedbacks increase the CO2 uptake by the Southern Ocean and account for one-fifth of the global uptake of CO2 emissions. The increase in CO2 uptake is primarily dpCO2-driven, with Antarctic intermediate waters making the largest contribution; the remaining three feedbacks partially offset this increase (by ~25%), with maximum reductions in Subantarctic mode waters. The process dominating the decrease in CO2 uptake is water mass-dependent: reduction in carbonate buffering capacity in Subtropical and Subantarctic mode waters, local climate impacts in Antarctic intermediate waters, and reduction in outcrop areas in circumpolar deep waters and Antarctic bottom waters. Intermodel variability in the feedbacks is predominately dpCO2–driven and should be a focus of efforts to constrain projection uncertainty.

scholarly journals Resolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David I. Armstrong McKay ◽  
Sarah E. Cornell ◽  
Katherine Richardson ◽  
Johan Rockström
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Biological Pump ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
System Models ◽  
Plankton Ecology ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. The Earth’s oceans are one of the largest sinks in the Earth system for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, acting as a negative feedback on climate change. Earth system models predict, though, that climate change will lead to a weakening ocean carbon uptake rate as warm water holds less dissolved CO2 and biological productivity declines. However, most Earth system models do not incorporate the impact of warming on bacterial remineralisation and rely on simplified representations of plankton ecology that do not resolve the potential impact of climate change on ecosystem structure or elemental stoichiometry. Here we use a recently-developed extension of the cGEnIE Earth system model (ecoGEnIE) featuring a trait-based scheme for plankton ecology (ECOGEM), and also incorporate cGEnIE's temperature-dependent remineralisation (TDR) scheme. This enables evaluation of the impact of both ecological dynamics and temperature-dependent remineralisation on the soft-tissue biological pump in response to climate change. We find that including TDR strengthens the biological pump relative to default runs due to increased nutrient recycling, while ECOGEM weakens the biological pump by enabling a shift to smaller plankton classes. However, interactions with concurrent ocean acidification cause opposite sign responses for the carbon sink in both cases: TDR leads to a smaller sink relative to default runs whereas ECOGEM leads to a larger sink. Combining TDR and ECOGEM results in a net strengthening of the biological pump and a small net reduction in carbon sink relative to default. These results clearly illustrate the substantial degree to which ecological dynamics and biodiversity modulate the strength of climate-biosphere feedbacks, and demonstrate that Earth system models need to incorporate more ecological complexity in order to resolve carbon sink weakening.

scholarly journals Glacial – interglacial atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> change: a simple "hypsometric effect" on deep-ocean carbon sequestration?

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 711-743 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. C. Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Deep Sea ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Carbon Reservoir ◽  
Ocean Carbon

Abstract. Given the magnitude and dynamism of the deep marine carbon reservoir, it is almost certain that past glacial – interglacial fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 have relied at least in part on changes in the carbon storage capacity of the deep sea. To date, physical ocean circulation mechanisms that have been proposed as viable explanations for glacial – interglacial CO2 change have focussed almost exclusively on dynamical or kinetic processes. Here, a simple mechanism is proposed for increasing the carbon storage capacity of the deep sea that operates via changes in the volume of southern-sourced deep-water filling the ocean basins, as dictated by the hypsometry of the ocean floor. It is proposed that a water-mass that occupies more than the bottom 3 km of the ocean will essentially determine the carbon content of the marine reservoir. Hence by filling this interval with southern-sourced deep-water (enriched in dissolved CO2 due to its particular mode of formation) the amount of carbon sequestered in the deep sea may be greatly increased. A simple box-model is used to test this hypothesis, and to investigate its implications. It is suggested that up to 70% of the observed glacial – interglacial CO2 change might be explained by the replacement of northern-sourced deep-water below 2.5 km water depth by its southern counterpart. Most importantly, it is found that an increase in the volume of southern-sourced deep-water allows glacial CO2 levels to be simulated easily with only modest changes in Southern Ocean biological export or overturning. If incorporated into the list of contributing factors to marine carbon sequestration, this mechanism may help to significantly reduce the "deficit" of explained glacial – interglacial CO2 change.

scholarly journals Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9291-9312 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Keith Moore ◽  
Keith Lindsay ◽  
Scott C. Doney ◽  
Matthew C. Long ◽  
Kazuhiro Misumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Production Scale ◽  
Export Production ◽  
Community Earth System Model

The authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Late-twentieth-century seasonally varying mixed layer depths are generally within 10 m of observations, with a Southern Ocean shallow bias. Surface nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations exhibit positive biases at low latitudes and negative biases at high latitudes. The volume of the oxygen minimum zones is overestimated. The impacts of climate change on biogeochemistry have similar spatial patterns under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but perturbation magnitudes are larger under RCP8.5. Increasing stratification leads to weaker nutrient entrainment and decreased primary and export production (>30% over large areas). The global-scale decreases in primary and export production scale linearly with the increases in mean sea surface temperature. There are production increases in the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, driven by lateral iron inputs from adjacent areas. The increased HNLC export partially compensates for the reductions in non-HNLC waters (~25% offset). Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and climate by the end of this century (as in RCP4.5) will minimize the changes to nutrient cycling and primary production in the oceans. In contrast, continued increasing emission of CO2 (as in RCP8.5) will lead to reduced productivity and significant modifications to ocean circulation and biogeochemistry by the end of this century, with more drastic changes beyond the year 2100 as the climate continues to rapidly warm.

scholarly journals Response of the Ocean Natural Carbon Storage to Projected Twenty-First-Century Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 2033-2053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele Bernardello ◽  
Irina Marinov ◽  
Jaime B. Palter ◽  
Jorge L. Sarmiento ◽  
Eric D. Galbraith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
First Century ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Co2 Solubility ◽  
Natural Carbon ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Ocean Carbon

Abstract The separate impacts of wind stress, buoyancy fluxes, and CO2 solubility on the oceanic storage of natural carbon are assessed in an ensemble of twentieth- to twenty-first-century simulations, using a coupled atmosphere–ocean–carbon cycle model. Time-varying perturbations for surface wind stress, temperature, and salinity are calculated from the difference between climate change and preindustrial control simulations, and are imposed on the ocean in separate simulations. The response of the natural carbon storage to each perturbation is assessed with novel prognostic biogeochemical tracers, which can explicitly decompose dissolved inorganic carbon into biological, preformed, equilibrium, and disequilibrium components. Strong responses of these components to changes in buoyancy and winds are seen at high latitudes, reflecting the critical role of intermediate and deep waters. Overall, circulation-driven changes in carbon storage are mainly due to changes in buoyancy fluxes, with wind-driven changes playing an opposite but smaller role. Results suggest that climate-driven perturbations to the ocean natural carbon cycle will contribute 20 Pg C to the reduction of the ocean accumulated total carbon uptake over the period 1860–2100. This reflects a strong compensation between a buildup of remineralized organic matter associated with reduced deep-water formation (+96 Pg C) and a decrease of preformed carbon (−116 Pg C). The latter is due to a warming-induced decrease in CO2 solubility (−52 Pg C) and a circulation-induced decrease in disequilibrium carbon storage (−64 Pg C). Climate change gives rise to a large spatial redistribution of ocean carbon, with increasing concentrations at high latitudes and stronger vertical gradients at low latitudes.

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