scholarly journals Changes in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere through the Eocene-Oligocene Transition: a model-data comparison

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Ladant ◽  
Joost Frieling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atmospheric Pco2

Abstract. Global and regional climate changed dramatically with the expansion of the Antarctic Ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT). These large-scale changes are generally linked to declining atmospheric pCO2 levels and/or changes in Southern Ocean gateways such as the Drake Passage around this time. To better understand the Southern Hemisphere regional climatic changes and the impact of glaciation on the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere at the EOT, we compiled a database of sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from a range of proxy records and compared this with a series of fully-coupled climate model simulations. Regional patterns in the proxy records of temperature show that cooling across the EOT was less at high latitudes and greater at mid-latitudes. Climate model simulations have some issues in capturing the zonal mean latitudinal temperature profiles shown by the proxy data, but certain simulations do show moderate-good performance at recreating the temperature patterns shown in the data. When taking into account the absolute temperature before and after the EOT, as well as the change in temperature across it, simulations with a closed Drake Passage before and after the EOT or with an opening of the Drake Passage across the EOT perform poorly, whereas simulations with a drop in atmospheric pCO2 in combination with ice growth generally perform better. This provides further support to previous research that changes in atmospheric pCO2 are more likely to have been the driver of the EOT climatic changes, as opposed to opening of the Drake Passage.

scholarly journals Changes in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere through the Eocene–Oligocene transition: a model–data comparison

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Ladant ◽  
Joost Frieling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Atmospheric Pco2

Abstract. The global and regional climate changed dramatically with the expansion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT). These large-scale changes are generally linked to declining atmospheric pCO2 levels and/or changes in Southern Ocean gateways such as the Drake Passage around this time. To better understand the Southern Hemisphere regional climatic changes and the impact of glaciation on the Earth's oceans and atmosphere at the EOT, we compiled a database of 10 ocean and 4 land-surface temperature reconstructions from a range of proxy records and compared this with a series of fully coupled, low-resolution climate model simulations from two models (HadCM3BL and FOAM). Regional patterns in the proxy records of temperature show that cooling across the EOT was less at high latitudes and greater at mid-latitudes. While certain climate model simulations show moderate–good performance at recreating the temperature patterns shown in the data before and after the EOT, in general the model simulations do not capture the absolute latitudinal temperature gradient shown by the data, being too cold, particularly at high latitudes. When taking into account the absolute temperature before and after the EOT, as well as the change in temperature across it, simulations with a closed Drake Passage before and after the EOT or with an opening of the Drake Passage across the EOT perform poorly, whereas simulations with a drop in atmospheric pCO2 in combination with ice growth generally perform better. This provides further support for previous research that changes in atmospheric pCO2 are more likely to have been the driver of the EOT climatic changes, as opposed to the opening of the Drake Passage.

scholarly journals On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5681-5693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leela M. Frankcombe ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
Jules B. Kajtar ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Byron A. Steinman
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.

scholarly journals Trends in Downward Solar Radiation at the Surface over North America from Climate Model Projections and Implications for Solar Energy

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Andres Saenz ◽  
Huei-Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

The projected changes in the downward solar radiation at the surface over North America for late 21st century are deduced from global climate model simulations with greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. A robust trend is found in winter over the United States, which exhibits a simple pattern of a decrease of sunlight over Northern USA. and an increase of sunlight over Southern USA. This structure was identified in both the seasonal mean and the mean climatology at different times of the day. It is broadly consistent with the known poleward shift of storm tracks in winter in climate model simulations with GHG forcing. The centennial trend of the downward shortwave radiation at the surface in Northern USA. is on the order of 10% of the climatological value for the January monthly mean, and slightly over 10% at the time when it is midday in the United States. This indicates a nonnegligible influence of the GHG forcing on solar energy in the long term. Nevertheless, when dividing the 10% by a century, in the near term, the impact of the GHG forcing is relatively minor such that the estimate of solar power potential using present-day climatology will remain useful in the coming decades.

scholarly journals A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 699-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Lunt ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
P. Bakker ◽  
A. Berger ◽  
P. Braconnot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Quantitative Agreement ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Robust Model ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract. The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison.

scholarly journals The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 16777-16819
Author(s):  
M. Toohey ◽  
K. Krüger ◽  
M. Bittner ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
H. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forcing Set

Abstract. Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high latitude effects result from robust enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. While there is significant ensemble variability in the high latitude response to each aerosol forcing set, the mean response is sensitive to the forcing set used. Significant differences, for example, are found in the NH polar stratosphere temperature and zonal wind response to two different forcing data sets constructed from different versions of SAGE II aerosol observations. Significant strengthening of the polar vortex, in rough agreement with the expected response, is achieved only using aerosol forcing extracted from prior coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. Differences in the dynamical response to the different forcing sets used imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space-time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

Multiscale combination of climate model simulations and proxy records over the last millennium

2017 ◽  
Vol 132 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 763-777
Author(s):  
Xin Chen ◽  
Pei Xing ◽  
Yong Luo ◽  
Suping Nie ◽  
Zongci Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

scholarly journals Circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere and ozone changes

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 10677-10688 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Braesicke ◽  
J. Keeble ◽  
X. Yang ◽  
G. Stiller ◽  
S. Kellmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Simple Change ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Idealised Model ◽  
Stratospheric Clouds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Chemical Perturbations

Abstract. We report results from two pairs of chemistry-climate model simulations using the same climate model but different chemical perturbations. In each pair of experiments an ozone change was triggered by a simple change in the chemistry. One pair of model experiments looked at the impact of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and the other pair at the impact of short-lived halogenated species on composition and circulation. The model response is complex with both positive and negative changes in ozone concentration, depending on location. These changes result from coupling between composition, temperature and circulation. Even though the causes of the modelled ozone changes are different, the high latitude Southern Hemisphere response in the lower stratosphere is similar. In both pairs of experiments the high-latitude circulation changes, as evidenced by N2O differences, are suggesting a slightly longer-lasting/stronger stratospheric descent in runs with higher ozone destruction (a manifestation of a seasonal shift in the circulation). We contrast the idealised model behaviour with interannual variability in ozone and N2O as observed by the MIPAS instrument on ENVISAT, highlighting similarities of the modelled climate equilibrium changes to the year 2006–2007 in observations. We conclude that the climate system can respond quite sensitively in its seasonal evolution to small chemical perturbations, that circulation adjustments seen in the model can occur in reality, and that coupled chemistry-climate models allow a better assessment of future ozone and climate change than recent CMIP-type models with prescribed ozone fields.

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