The Impact of Future Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydro-climatological Drought, Analysis and Projections: Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 71-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Safieh Javadinejad ◽  
David Hannah ◽  
Kaveh Ostad-Ali-Askari ◽  
Stefane Krause ◽  
Maciej Zalewski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Future climate change scenarios shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katinka Bellomo ◽  
Michela Angeloni ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<div> <div> <div> <p>In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.</p> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auwal F. Abdussalam ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Daniel F. Steinhoff ◽  
Vanja M. Dukic ◽  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Annual Incidence ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily populated northwest Nigeria with an annual incidence rate ranging from 18 to 200 per 100 000 people for 2000–11. Several studies have established that cases exhibit sensitivity to intra- and interannual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations of seven meteorological variables from an ensemble of 13 statistically downscaled global climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, with the numbers representing the globally averaged top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance (in W m−2) in 2100. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change have the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early (2020–35) and late (2060–75) twenty-first century, and for the seasonal onset of meningitis to begin about a month earlier on average by late century, in October rather than November. Annual incidence may increase by 47% ± 8%, 64% ± 9%, and 99% ± 12% for the RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in 2060–75 with respect to 1990–2005. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as it is assumed that current prevention and treatment strategies will remain similar in the future.

Parameterization of the rainfall-runoff model in changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model

AbstractA conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the impact of climate change on the runoff regime in the Myjava River basin. Changes in climatic characteristics for future decades were expressed by a regional climate model using the A1B emission scenario. The model was calibrated for 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2010, 2011–2019. The best set of model parameters selected from the recent calibration period was used to simulate runoff for three periods, which should reflect the level of future climate change. The results show that the runoff should increase in the winter months (December and January) and decrease in the summer months (June to August). An evaluation of the long-term mean monthly runoff for the future climate scenario indicates that the highest runoff will occur in March.

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-57
Author(s):  
Emily Bercos-Hickey ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Tornadic Storms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractThe impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.

Evaluation of climate model simulations in representing the precipitation non-stationarity by considering observational uncertainties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongjing Wan ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Ping Xie ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Daiyuan Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distributions ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>The reliability of climate model simulations in representing the precipitation changes is one of the preconditions for climate-change impact studies. However, the observational uncertainties hinder the robust evaluation of these climate model simulations. The goal of the present study is to evaluate the capacities of climate model simulations in representing the precipitation non-stationarity in consideration of observational uncertainties. The mean of multiple observations (OBSE) from five observational precipitation datasets is used as a reference to quantify the uncertainty of observed precipitation and to evaluate the performance of climate model simulations. The non-stationarity of precipitation was represented using the mean and variance of annual total precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation for the 1982–2015 period. The results show that the spatial distributions of annual and extreme precipitation are similar for various observational datasets, while there has less agreement in the variance changes of extreme precipitation. Climate models are capable of representing the spatial distributions of the annual and extreme precipitation amounts at the global scales. In terms of the non-stationarity, climate model simulations are capable of capturing the large-scale spatial pattern of the trend in mean for annual precipitation. On the contrary, the simulations are less reliable in reproducing the change of extreme precipitation, as well as the trend of variance for annual precipitation. Overall, climate models are more reliable in simulating the mean of precipitation than the variance, and they are more reliable in simulating annual precipitation than extreme. Besides, the uncertainties of precipitation for both observations and simulations are much larger in monsoon regions than in other regions. This study suggests that considering observational uncertainties is necessary when using observational datasets as the reference to project future climate change and assess the impact of climate change on environments.</p>

Future Climate Change Impact on Wildfire Danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios Rovithakis ◽  
Apostolos Voulgarakis ◽  
Manolis Grillakis ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos ◽  
Anna Karali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Of Greece

<p>The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a meteorologically based index designed initially to be used in Canada but it can also be used worldwide, including the Mediterranean, to estimate fire danger in a generalized fuel type based solely on weather observations. The four weather variables are measured and used as inputs to the FWI (rain accumulated over 24 h, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) are generally taken daily at noon local standard time.</p><p>Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean, and more specifically in Greece are expected to change, indicating longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the FWI index is used in order to assess changes in future fire danger conditions.</p><p>To represent meteorological conditions, regional EURO-CORDEX climate model simulations over the Mediterranean and mainly Greece at a spatial resolution of 11 km, were utilized. In order to assess the impact of future climate change, we used two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios consisting of an optimistic emission scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6) and a pessimistic scenario where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5).  We compare the FWI projections for two future time periods, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with reference to the historical time period 1971-2000. Based on the critical fire risk threshold values that have been established in previous studies for the area of Greece, the days with critical fire risk were calculated for different Greek domains.</p>

scholarly journals Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katinka Bellomo ◽  
Michela Angeloni ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractIn climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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